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posted by martyb on Sunday February 11 2018, @01:32AM   Printer-friendly
from the it's-past-time dept.

An op-ed written by Lori Garver, a former deputy administrator of NASA, suggests cancelling the Space Launch System in favor of Falcon Heavy and BFR:

SpaceX could save NASA and the future of space exploration

The successful launch of SpaceX's Falcon Heavy rocket is a game-changer that could actually save NASA and the future of space exploration. [...] Unfortunately, the traditionalists at NASA — and their beltway bandit allies — don't share this view and have feared this moment since the day the Falcon Heavy program was announced seven years ago.

The question to be answered in Washington now is why would Congress continue to spend billions of taxpayer dollars a year on a government-made rocket that is unnecessary and obsolete now that the private sector has shown they can do it for a fraction of the cost? [...] Once operational, SLS will cost NASA over $1 billion per launch. The Falcon Heavy, developed at zero cost to the taxpayer, would charge NASA approximately $100M per launch. In other words, NASA could buy 10 Falcon Heavy launches for the coat of one SLS launch — and invest the remainder in truly revolutionary and meaningful missions that advance science and exploration.

While SLS may be a "government-made rocket", the "beltway bandits", also known as Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Orbital ATK, and Aerojet Rocketdyne, are heavily involved in its development. The United Launch Alliance (Boeing + Lockheed Martin) have also shown that they can build their own expensive rocket: the Delta IV Heavy, which can carry less than half the payload to LEO of Falcon Heavy while costing over four times as much per launch.

NASA's marketing of how many elephants, locomotives and airplanes could be launched by various versions of SLS is a perfect example of the frivolity of developing, building and operating their own rocket. NASA advertises that it will be able to launch 12.5 elephants to LEO on Block I SLS, or 2.8 more elephants than the Falcon Heavy could launch. But if we are counting elephants — the planned Block II version of SLS could launch 30 elephants, while SpaceX's BFR could launch 34. Talk about significant.

Wait, what? 70 metric tons (SLS Block 1) / 63.8 metric tons (Falcon Heavy) = ~1.09717868339. 1.097 * (12.5 - 2.8) = ~10.6 elephants lifted by SLS Block 1 versus 9.7 for Falcon Heavy.

NASA documents list 12 elephants for SLS Block 1 (70 metric tons), and 22 for SLS Block 2 (130 metric tons). The author might have lifted some numbers from a Business Insider article that (incorrectly) estimates that 12.5 elephants can be lifted by Falcon Heavy, while SLS Block 2 can lift 30 elephants, and 34 for BFR. Perhaps we are dealing with a mix of adult and juvenile elephants?

Regarding the Falcon Heavy maiden flight, Lori Garver had this to say on Twitter about the Tesla dummy payload (which has attracted some criticism):

I was told by a SpaceX VP at the launch that they offered free launches to NASA, Air Force etc. but got no takers. A student developed experiment or early tech demo could have led to even more new knowledge from the mission. The Tesla gimmick was the backup.

However, the offer may have been informal, or made too close to the launch date. And Elon Musk himself guessed that the Falcon Heavy maiden launch had a 50% chance of succeeding.

While skeptical of Elon Musk's plans to get humans to Mars by 2024, she also says that NASA employees often dismissed the Falcon Heavy launch as "never going to happen".

Now it has happened.

Here's a refresher on the costs of SLS development:

Original Submission

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  • (Score: 2, Insightful) by frojack on Sunday February 11 2018, @02:35AM (4 children)

    by frojack (1554) on Sunday February 11 2018, @02:35AM (#636221) Journal

    SF book tier company.

    What the hell is that supposed to actually mean?

    And with nothing else living in the solar system, how is it possible for humanity to infect it, or be a plague?

    You appear to have read just enough sifi to become a self loathing idiot. You need not perpetuate what you hate.

    No, you are mistaken. I've always had this sig.
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  • (Score: 2) by takyon on Sunday February 11 2018, @02:53AM (3 children)

    by takyon (881) <{takyon} {at} {}> on Sunday February 11 2018, @02:53AM (#636232) Journal

    Wow, so mad.

    SpaceX's plans call for tens or hundreds of reusable BFRs making thousands of trips to Mars. Making space travel 1-2 orders of magnitude cheaper will bring us a lot closer to an "science fiction book tier" future. And while it will take a long time for humanity to spread "like a plague" throughout the solar system, it will happen eventually, with robots at least. It will become cheap to put a manmade object in orbit around every big rock in the solar system. Interstellar travel is where things get disappointing.

    [SIG] 10/28/2017: Soylent Upgrade v14 []
    • (Score: 4, Interesting) by Immerman on Sunday February 11 2018, @06:04AM (1 child)

      by Immerman (3985) on Sunday February 11 2018, @06:04AM (#636278)

      I'm not even so sure interstellar travel is going to be so terribly disappointing. Almost certainly it won't be a warp-driven high-speed exploration excitement - but by the time we've got artificial ecosystems and closed societies refined to the point where we could realistically colonize another star without further support from Earth, I suspect we'll be at the point that getting a generation-ship up to several percent of light speed will be a viable option. And, if we're already talking about people living in sealed colonies on Mars, the Moon, and various asteroids - the life on an interstellar journey won't be all that different, except for the lack of new faces and inability to leave. Not even necessarily such a bad thing - smaller communities have much to recommend them.

      Plus, long before we're ready for such a mission, we will be able to easily get a telescope out past 600 AU, where it can use the gravitational lens of the sun to survey potential destination worlds in impressive detail, before we even leave the solar system.

      • (Score: 2) by takyon on Sunday February 11 2018, @06:27AM

        by takyon (881) <{takyon} {at} {}> on Sunday February 11 2018, @06:27AM (#636286) Journal

        the life on an interstellar journey won't be all that different, except for the lack of new faces and inability to leave. Not even necessarily such a bad thing - smaller communities have much to recommend them

        VR + Strong AI + other hardware developments = ultimate gaming/entertainment experience

        ~650 AU [] is well within the purview of the solar system, given that Proxima Centauri is about 268,331 AU away. We could figure out how to send something that only takes maybe 20 years to get there []. Incidentally, if Planet Nine exists, it should be about as far away as the gravitational lens destination.

        [SIG] 10/28/2017: Soylent Upgrade v14 []
    • (Score: 1) by Sulla on Sunday February 11 2018, @06:49AM

      by Sulla (5173) on Sunday February 11 2018, @06:49AM (#636291) Journal

      I am kind of sad that calling humanity a plague was taken poorly, although I guess it seems pretty obvious now. I for one look forward to humanity infecting this galaxy and making it our own proving we were the winner at evolution.

      I suppose it would have been better to compare us to the norway rat, that one ant colony on like every continent, or something.

      Ceterum censeo Sinae esse delendam