siliconwafer writes "The US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is looking to acquire a vehicle license plate tracking system, to be used at the national level. According to the solicitation obtained by the Washington Post, commercial readers, supplied by a private company, would scan the plate of vehicles and store them in a "National License Plate Recognition" (NLPR) database. This is already being done at the state level, and privacy advocates are up in arms, with EFF and ACLU suing California over their automatic plate readers. Now that this has potential to become a broad and national program."
[ED Note: "Shortly after the Washington Post broke the story on the national plate reading system, it appears the DHS has shelved their plans for the tracking system, by order of Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson, at least in the interim."]
As the Snowden revelations keep coming and the anger boils up and up I have had Asimov's psychohistory much on my mind. His mathematical sociologists in the Foundation series were able to predict human events on the large scale. Part of me wonders if somewhere in the machinery of government or the masters-of-the-universe there are psychohistorians who calculate they can keep pushing their luck because they do keep pushing their luck. The Arab Spring and the events coming out of the Ukraine in the last 24 hours would rather give me pause were I in their shoes. And I wonder what it would take for the same threshold moment to occur in the United States where the illusion of stability pops and the status quo quickly unravels. Perhaps the collapse of the Student Loan system, with its trillion dollar debt load? Magnitude of events is a factor, but so too does velocity of their occurrence seem to matter. Has anyone tried to model this mathematically?
"Has anyone tried to model this mathematically?"
I have, people + no money + no hope = shit hits the fan.
There have been models that show when food prices rise beyond a certain point, riots occur. I'm sure there are other specific areas of study, but I doubt they've got together. I have a feeling if all of these studies were brought together, people would realize we're a lot closer to major upheaval than most think.
The US isn't the only country in the world, and I don't think uprisings will start there first (well, they obviously haven't).
The point of pyschohistory in Asimov's novels was that it WASN'T intended to predict the individual human. It was meant to apply only on a mass scale. In fact, since I have copies of them handy:
Undoubtedly his greatest contributions were in the field of psychohistory. Seldon found the field little more than a set of vague axioms; he left it a profound statistical science....
PSYCHOHISTORY--...Gaal Dornick, using nonmathematical concepts, has defined psychohistory to be that branch of mathematics which deals with the reactions of human conglomerates to fixed social and economic stimuli....
... Implicit in all these definitions is the assumption that the human conglomerate being dealt with is sufficiently large for valid statistical treatment. The necessary size of such a conglomerate may be determined by Seldon's First Theorem which ... A further necessary assumption is that the human conglomerate be itself unaware of psychohistoric analysis in order that its reactions be truly random ...
Now, while the beginning of the 1st novel suggests that Seldon developed psychohistory sufficiently well to predict the actions of individuals, the rest of the novels rely on the Foundation itself remaining largely ignorant, and later novels introduce the idea of psychic manipulation by outside forces, and various other twists that place less and less emphasis on psychohistory. The initial definition of psychohistory remains the most relevant to the span of novels in general.
"I'm not finished," said the trader, coldly. "The future course of the Foundation was plotted according to the science of psychohistory, then highly developed, and conditions arranged so as to bring about a series of crises that will force us most rapidly along the route to future Empire. Each crisis, each Seldon crisis, marks an epoch in our history. We're approaching one now -- our third."
From the second book:
Psychohistory dealt not with man, but with man-masses. It was the science of mobs; mobs in their billions. It could forecast reactions to stimuli with something of the accuracy that a lesser science could bring to the forecast of a rebound of a billiard ball. The reaction of one man could be forecast by no known mathematics; the reaction of a billion is something else again.
Hari Seldon plotted the social and economic trends of the time, sighted along the curves and foresaw the continuing and accelerating fall of civilization and the gap of thirty thousand years that must elapse before a struggling new Empire could emerge from the ruins.