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posted by janrinok on Monday June 11 2018, @01:45PM   Printer-friendly
from the cheery-start-to-the-week dept.

Good news! Automation capable of erasing white collar jobs is coming, but not for a decade or more. And that’s also the bad news because interest in automation accelerates during economic downturns, so once tech that can take your job arrives you’ll already have lived through another period of economic turmoil that may already have cost you your job.

That lovely scenario was advanced yesterday by professor Mirko Draca of The London School of Economics, who yesterday told Huawei’s 2018 Asia-Pacific Innovation Day 2018 that the world is currently in “an era of investment and experimentation” with technology. The effects of such eras, he said, generally emerge ten to fifteen years in the future.

Innovation in the 1980s therefore sparked the PC and internet booms of the mid-to-late 1990s, and we’re still surfing [SIC - suffering?] the changes they unleashed. “Our current era of mobile tech doesn’t measure up to the radical 1990s,” he said, as shown by the fact that productivity gains appear to have stalled for a decade or more.

[...] “We predict that AI and robotics will lead to some sort of productivity surge in ten to fifteen years,” he said, adding that there is “no clear evidence” that a new wave of technologies that threaten jobs has started.

But he also said that it will once businesses see the need to control costs.


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  • (Score: 4, Insightful) by JoeMerchant on Monday June 11 2018, @03:42PM (2 children)

    by JoeMerchant (3937) on Monday June 11 2018, @03:42PM (#691438)

    I made it through two years of graduate school on $16K USD income plus another $3-4K sponge off of my parents (insurance, gifts, etc.) and that not only paid for my food, shelter, education and transportation, it also financed long overseas vacations in the summers. What it did not do was save ANYTHING for the future, no building of wealth/value in owned property, no ability whatsoever to weather any kind of hard times without outside support.

    When I signed up for $800 per month of PITI on a tiny scrap of land and pile of bricks with my name on it, that started building some modicum of value that I might dip into in the future. It also ended all hope of future 3+ month overseas jaunts, probably forever.

    As for the "cost of things" - in the 1980s I held a part time job in a grocery store stocking shelves. When my dad was at University in the 1960s, working such a job through the summer could provide sufficient income to pay for (I know it's free in the UK, but bear with our backwards economics for a moment) two terms at university, including room and board. By the time I was in Uni, that job stocking shelves would by itself pay barely pay for my rent, food and car, but wouldn't start to make a dent in tuition. Today, that same job pays maybe 50% more in hourly wages, but rent and food are up more like 100%, and I doubt you'd be able to pay for a car with insurance working part time stocking shelves anymore.

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  • (Score: 3, Informative) by PiMuNu on Monday June 11 2018, @04:39PM (1 child)

    by PiMuNu (3823) on Monday June 11 2018, @04:39PM (#691464)

    > I know it's free in the UK, but bear with our backwards economics for a moment)

    They started charging for university in the UK. I was in the first wave, and fought to stop them charging - almost got thrown out for it.

    > car,

    Car is a luxury in UK for most students. But we have a different infrastructure.

    I was doing "back-of-the-envelope" style calculation. For south of england (relatively expensive). For a family 2 adults + 2 kids

    1. Rent - 250 GBP per week
    2. Food - 100 GBP per week
    3. Bills - 50 GBP per week
    4. Car - 50 GBP per week

    I guess that quite quickly comes to 25k per annum (after tax) - i.e. you need to have two working adults or one working adult pulling a decent salary (not shelf stacking) just to live comfortably, without saving. So yes, I guess that confirms what others have said. The nasty one is rent. I guess that is why the UK has a massive housebuilding programme going on. Not sure it addresses the structural issues in the housing market, but meh.

    • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Monday June 11 2018, @08:19PM

      by JoeMerchant (3937) on Monday June 11 2018, @08:19PM (#691577)

      Just for fun, around here and "averageish" 2+2 family:

      Rent - $1200 per month
      Food - $500 per month
      Bills - $250 per month
      Car - $300 per month

      Of course, all of that can vary - usually the 2+2 family needs 2 cars so that the adults can both have jobs. Rent can be creatively lowered, and bills are highly subject to lifestyle but electricity, phone, garbage, etc. is hard to get away from. So, the US family is looking at $27K/yr post-tax - maybe 20K GBP. Oh, but now let's talk about healthcare insurance....

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