SoylentNews is people
SoylentNews
Submitted via IRC for SoyCow1984
[...] The team used a mathematical model to simulate these epidemic patterns for each of the 20 most common types of enterovirus.
To build the model, they used Japanese enterovirus surveillance data. Japan keeps incredibly detailed information on enterovirus outbreaks, and the team used 14 years' worth of information to build the model (from 2000-2014).
They then tested the model, and found that it was able to predict subsequent outbreaks in 2015 and 2016 for most types of enterovirus.
Source: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/08/180824090618.htm
This discussion has been archived.
No new comments can be posted.
Viral Outbreaks Could be Predicted Two Years in Advance by Mathematical Model
|
Log In/Create an Account
| Top
| 10 comments
| Search Discussion
The Fine Print: The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. We are not responsible for them in any way.
(1)
(1)
Tell a man there are 300 billion stars in the universe and he'll believe you.
Tell him a bench has wet paint on it and he'll have to touch to be sure.
(Score: 0, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 26 2018, @05:27AM
Crap, I can predict outbreaks and fatality rates for every virus you care to name - for 2016 and 2017. Just how detailed a prediction do you want?
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 26 2018, @07:04AM (2 children)
Enteroviruses can cause paralysis. This is just like polio, except that vaccines aren't available.
One of the awkward things about successful vaccination campaigns is that people lose their fear of disease. There are so many horrible diseases not covered! People are failing to be paranoid about germs. Without that, disease spreads.
If people wouldn't be so damn unsanitary, all human-specific diseases would quickly disappear.
(Score: 2) by Runaway1956 on Sunday August 26 2018, @07:15AM
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2442891/Poop-pills-feces-healthy-people-guts-patients-infections.html [dailymail.co.uk]
Abortion is the number one killed of children in the United States.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 26 2018, @09:38PM
The virus can cause AFP, but not at the rates of poliovirus.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 26 2018, @07:19AM
If in two years their predictions came true, awesome. What are the predictions?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 26 2018, @08:06AM
They show the same symptoms and come around at the same time... Let me guess, that model happens to predict flu, temperature and humidity as well, right?
(Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 26 2018, @10:45AM (2 children)
I can do a lot better than that for predicting local Viral Outbreaks, all I need are the latest copies of the itineraries of the cruise ships which visit our fair town...
Ship visits, 1..3 weeks later, without.fucking.fail¹ some sort of viral outbreak (including one mentioned in TFA, hand-foot-and-mouth disease, surely merely coincidental that it hadn't been recorded here for decades and this outbreak just happened in the weeks following the disembarkation of a boatload of Chinese tourists, apparently it's a major health problem there).
Fucking Plague ships..
¹ I was keeping informal notes, did so for a couple of years. I tried getting one of the local Universities interested in formally investigating this by passing them on, but apparently no-one wants to upset the 'Tourist Economy'...
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 26 2018, @12:24PM
Our fairy town? San Francisco?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 26 2018, @07:47PM
One of the local elementary school districts actively tells the teachers to ask the children about their vacations. They then use that information to estimate how sick kids will be and how many substitutes they will need. It is amazing how accurate they can be. For example, a family went on a 1.5 week cruise for their Winter Break. So, before the break even started, the school scheduled the room for disinfection at the end of every day. What do you know, by the end of the next week each and every kid in the class had at least one absence, but that particular disease didn't spread outside the class.
(Score: 2) by MichaelDavidCrawford on Sunday August 26 2018, @06:31PM
Mom used to work for the Solano County Health Department in Fairfield California. Her boss subscribed to this:
Yes I Have No Bananas. [gofundme.com]