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International research team discovers career hot streaks occur in science, art and film:
A team of researchers [...] examined the works of nearly 30,000 scientists, artists and film directors to learn if high-impact works in those fields came in streaks.
According to Lu Liu, a doctoral student in the College of IST and member of the research team, they found a universal pattern.
"Around 90 percent of professionals in those industries have at least one hot hand, and some of them have two or even three," she said.
[...] Liu says that there are two previous schools of thought regarding hot streaks in individual careers. According to the "Matthew effect," the more famous you become, the more likely you'll have success later, which supports the existence of a hot streak. The other school of thought -- the random impact rule -- implies that the success of a career is primarily random and is primarily driven by levels of productivity.
"Our findings provide a different point of view regarding individual careers," said Liu. "We found a period when an individual performs better than his normal career, and that the timing of a hot streak is random."
The researchers also wanted to learn if individuals were more productive during their hot streak periods, which last an average of four to five years. Unexpectedly, they were not.
[...] "Individuals show no detectable change in productivity during hot streaks, despite the fact that their outputs in this period are significantly better than the median, suggesting that there is an endogenous shift in individual creativity when the hot streak occurs," wrote the team in their paper.
[...] As the research shows that hot streaks do in fact exist in creative careers, the researchers hope to apply the research methods to more domains, including musicians, inventors and entrepreneurs.
(Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Thursday September 13 2018, @12:16PM (3 children)
You're neglecting the possibility of multiple numbers being the same and the number of significant figures you're able to claim. For the purposes of this discussion, unless you're just in the mood to be pedantic which I totally sympathize with, the median is best defined as the precise median plus or minus five percent or so.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Thursday September 13 2018, @12:33PM (2 children)
True enough, and I was just thinking about "binning" net worth in $1000 increments making it possible to truly have a significant number of people exactly hit the median bin, because calculating net worth to the penny is even sillier.
I suppose my far-horizon point is that: while the whole economy is not a zero-sum-game, a whole lot of it is, especially the parts that are influenced by intelligent decision making on the part of the individual consumer. When a consumer makes a better deal on a loan, they're essentially taking profit from the bank and its shareholders, which is a very good thing for the consumer, but not so great for that part of my 401(k) that's invested in financial products. Money "wasted" on bankruptcy and similar bad decisions is more circulated among the various hands that handle those situations than it is created or destroyed. I'd much rather have an economy where banking, insurance, collections, and lawyers shrink by 90% and we put them to work developing infrastructure, cleaning up the environment, right-sizing development, generating entertainment, whatever, but... this is the system we've got, and just having people make intelligent decisions isn't going to directly lift the whole economy up until those parasite industries shrink and retrain into things that actually do contribute - and I'd guess there's a generational lag between giving the parasites less opportunity and actually training more people into non-parasitic professions.
Україна досі не є частиною Росії Слава Україні🌻 https://news.stanford.edu/2023/02/17/will-russia-ukraine-war-end
(Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Thursday September 13 2018, @12:46PM (1 child)
It's institutional not generational. The parents of the boomers were the last to teach these things to their children as a generation. The boomers were able but decided not to for moral reasons. If we ever want to unfuck ourselves it's going to have to be taught in schools. Breeding-aged people are simply incapable of teaching it because they don't understand it themselves.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Friday September 14 2018, @01:01AM
Good luck with that - my parents were teachers, one a PhD education professor - according to them the deck is stacked for failure and nobody cares.
Україна досі не є частиною Росії Слава Україні🌻 https://news.stanford.edu/2023/02/17/will-russia-ukraine-war-end