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What should be the Book Club pick for December 2018? | Log In/Create an Account | Top | 34 comments | Search Discussion
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  • (Score: 1) by khallow on Monday September 17 2018, @12:30AM (1 child)

    by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Monday September 17 2018, @12:30AM (#735787) Journal
    I voted for Superforecasting because they're trying to be serious and because I'm interested in the future and prognostication. If it's garbage, it'll still be fun to pick apart. But maybe someone who has read the book might be able to say more about it?

  • (Score: 2) by takyon on Monday September 17 2018, @12:59AM

    by takyon (881) <takyonNO@SPAMsoylentnews.org> on Monday September 17 2018, @12:59AM (#735800) Journal

    I participated in GJP for a while. Mainly 2-option questions are posed with a slider. You get lots of points for a correct answer made with strong confidence, less points for a correct answer made with low confidence/high uncertainty, less points lost for wrong answer made with low confidence/high uncertainty, and more points lost for a confident/certain wrong answer. The service tries to get you to consider your biases and confidence level, and you have to balance them.

    There are a broad range of topics you can make predictions about, likely to include topics you know little about or topics on which your guess is as good as anybody's. They say GJP is more accurate than "experts", but that may be overstating the value of predictions (predicting the future correctly is still hard, who would have guessed). At the end of the day, you are probably relying primarily on the mainstream media to make your guesses. Theoretically, you could act as a one man (or multiple participant) intelligence agency, finding out shit, calling people, or whatever, to get an edge. bellingcat [bellingcat.com] comes to mind.

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