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Elon Musk Says There's a '70 Percent' Chance He'll Move to Mars:
Elon Musk has talked about personally heading to Mars before, but how likely is he to make the trip, really? Well, he just put a number on it. In an interview for the Axios on HBO documentary series, Musk said there was a "70 percent" chance he'll go to Mars. There have been a "recent number of breakthroughs" that have made it possible, he said. And as he hinted before, it'd likely be a one-way trip -- he expects to "move there."
The executive also rejected the idea that traveling to Mars could be an "escape hatch for the rich" in its current form. He noted that an ad for going to Mars would be "like Shackleton's ad for going to the Antarctic," which (though likely not real) made clear how dangerous and the South Pole journey was. Even if you make it to Mars, you'll spend all your time building the base and struggling to survive harsh conditions, Musk said. And while it might be possible to come back, it's far from guaranteed. As with climbing Everest, Musk believes it's all about the "challenge."
The interview is available on YouTube.
(Score: 2) by Blymie on Tuesday November 27 2018, @12:36PM (1 child)
Hmm... just to add here.
On the whole "other village" thing, a lot of research can be put into 'vertical tech', as in.. technology that all stems from easily built components. There is this:
https://www.opensourceecology.org/portfolio/tractor/ [opensourceecology.org]
Part of the premise is this:
"The current practical implementation of the GVCS is a life size LEGO set of powerful, self-replicating production tools for distributed production."
Essentially, all of their open source machinery has a goal of all using interchangeable, easily manufactured parts. They share the same engines too, at least last time I looked in depth.
My point here is that, if you can locate mineable materials, you're much of the way there. What Mars really needs, is to have:
- raw materials on Mars
- enough "stuff" to bootstrap local production
- a core set of technology that is simple, enables survival, but requires as low tech as possible to build
The tech can be worked out here.
I'm not saying "this is simple", but what I am saying is "this is a solvable problem".
And I think that with people going to the Moon, SOME of this might be a good beta test for the tech in question.
Anyhow.....
(Score: 2) by Blymie on Tuesday November 27 2018, @12:41PM
And I suspect a response to the above will be "But.. but... it's impossible to be non-dependant upon Earth!"
Well, this obviously isn't true. But it is true in the short term.
However? The goal here is to reduce that dependence to key things. For example, if you can mine local materials, you don't need to import circuit boards. Support beams and metal for structures. Parts for motors. On and on.
If you can get 'required goods' down to tiny things, like sending high-end CPUs/RAM/chips and components, things like that? Then you take a small thing (a CPU) and can turn it into a big thing (a computer) with local materials.
That's goal #1. Goal #2 is to make your own CPUs, which of course is easy to do...
(You don't need the best of the best for CPUs/RAMs to start.)