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Emergency Declared in Rockland County, NY over Measles: Unvaccinated Barred from Public Spaces

posted by chromas on Wednesday March 27 2019, @12:34PM   Printer-friendly
from the vax-papers-please dept.

martyb writes:

Emergency Declared in NY over Measles: Unvaccinated Barred from Public Spaces:

Plagued by a tenacious outbreak of measles that began last October, New York's Rockland County declared a state of emergency Tuesday and issued a directive barring unvaccinated children from all public spaces.

Effective at midnight Wednesday, March 27, anyone aged 18 or younger who has not been vaccinated against the measles is prohibited from public spaces in Rockland for 30 days or until they get vaccinated. Public spaces are defined broadly in the directive as any places:

[W]here more than 10 persons are intended to congregate for purposes such as civic, governmental, social, or religious functions, or for recreation or shopping, or for food or drink consumption, or awaiting transportation, or for daycare or educational purposes, or for medical treatment. A place of public assembly shall also include public transportation vehicles, including but not limited to, publicly or privately owned buses or trains...

The directive follows an order from the county last December that barred unvaccinated children from schools that did not reach a minimum of 95 percent vaccination rate. That order—and the directive issued today—are intended to thwart the long-standing outbreak, which has sickened 153 people, mostly children.

What were they waiting for? A pox on them all?

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  • (Score: 3, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 27 2019, @02:37PM (8 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 27 2019, @02:37PM (#820660)

    More data:

    Common Complications include ear infections and diarrhea.

            Ear infections occur in about one out of every 10 children with measles and can result in permanent hearing loss.
            Diarrhea is reported in less than one out of 10 people with measles.

    Severe Complications

    Some people may suffer from severe complications, such as pneumonia (infection of the lungs) and encephalitis (swelling of the brain). They may need to be hospitalized and could die. Here are some facts about complications in children and pregnant women:

            As many as one out of every 20 children with measles gets pneumonia, the most common cause of death from measles in young children.
            About one child out of every 1,000 who get measles will develop encephalitis (swelling of the brain) that can lead to convulsions and can leave the child deaf or with intellectual disability.
            For every 1,000 children who get measles, one or two will die from it.
            Measles may cause pregnant woman to give birth prematurely, or have a low-birth-weight baby.

    http://rocklandgov.com/departments/health/measles-information/ [rocklandgov.com]

    Not sure where they are getting these numbers from. Mine are:

    One of the major sources of doubt about the need for immunization stems from the belief among many parents and doctors that measles is a mild disease in which serious complications are rare and almost never fatal in normal children.
    [...]
    Neary 67 per 1,000, or about 1 in every 15 persons with measles in this survey, suffered from at least one complication. The most numerous were severe affections of the respiratory tract (38 per 1,000) and otitis media (25 per 1,000), followed by neurological disturbances (4 per 1,000) and a small number of others (2 per 1,000). Twelve of the children studied (0.2 per 1,000) are known to have died after measles, and 610 (11.5 per 1,000) were admitted to hospitals as a direct result of the disease.
    [...]
    Encephalitis or impaired consciousness was reported in one per 1,000,

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1815949/ [nih.gov]

    So their (unsourced) estimate of the complications are pretty close, but 2-5x too high for some issues.

    Compare to the side effects of MMR (from ~1500 children):

    The incidence of fever reported as solicited general symptom during the 43-day post-vaccination period was also similar between groups, with 31.1% of MMR-RIT and 32.3% of MMR II-vaccinated children reporting fever ≥ 38.0°C, and 4.0% and 2.7% reporting grade 3 fever (> 39.5°C) (Figure 2 and Supplemental table S1). Medical advice for fever was sought for 13.1% and 10.1% of children in the MMR-RIT and MMR II groups, respectively.
    [...]
    Febrile convulsions were reported for two (0.2%) MMR-RIT-vaccinated children.
    [...]
    Rashes were reported for 24.4% of MMR-RIT and 27.4% of MMR II-vaccinated children. Approximately two thirds of the rashes were localized and occurred without fever. Measles/rubella-like rashes were reported for 5.8% and 4.7% of children; varicella-like rashes (as a possible consequence of the co-administered varicella vaccine) for 3.6% and 4.0% (Table 3). Medical advice for rashes was sought for 11.2% and 12.4% of children in the MMR-RIT and MMR II groups, respectively.
    [...]
    A total of 51.4% (95% CI: 48.5%, 54.3%) and 48.4% (44.3%, 52.6%) of children in the MMR-RIT and MMR II groups, respectively, reported unsolicited adverse events (AEs) during the 43-day post-vaccination period; upper respiratory tract infection (9.5% and 12.8%) and diarrhea (8.2% and 8.0%) occurred most frequently.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6343620/ [nih.gov]

    Ear Infections:
    Them = 0.1
    Miller = 0.025
    MMR  < 0.0007? (not mentioned)

    Pneumonia:
    Them = 0.05
    Miller  = 0.038
    MMR = 0.1

    Encephalitis:
    Them = 0.001
    Miller = 0.001
    MMR  < 0.0007? (febrile convulsions = .002)

    Mortality:
    Them = 0.001
    Miller = 0.0002
    MMR  < 0.0007

    Fever:
    Them ~ 1.0 (assumed)
    Miller ~ 1.0 (assumed)
    MMR  = 0.3

    Rash:
    Them ~ 1.0 (assumed)
    Miller ~ 1.0 (assumed)
    MMR  = 0.25

    And I wonder about the 100% of cases had a fever and rash assumption since pre-vaccine only ~15% of measles cases ever got reported. It would make sense if those were the most extreme/classic cases.

    Starting Score:    0  points
    Moderation   +3  
       Troll=1, Interesting=1, Informative=3, Total=5
    Extra 'Informative' Modifier   0  
    Total Score:   3  

  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 27 2019, @03:03PM

    by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 27 2019, @03:03PM (#820678)

    Found ear infections after MMR:

    (acute) otitis media (MMR-RIT: 23 children, 1.9%; MMR II: 9 children, 1.5%)

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6343620/ [nih.gov]

    Ear Infections:
    Them = 0.1
    Miller = 0.025
    MMR  = 0.015

  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 27 2019, @03:17PM (3 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 27 2019, @03:17PM (#820688)

    Wow, just comparing data from the medical literature and a lay medical site is "trolling" now.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 27 2019, @03:32PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 27 2019, @03:32PM (#820695)

      Yeah, I was thinking the exact same thing. Maybe someone just hit the wrong button when doing their mod?

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 27 2019, @05:04PM (1 child)

      by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 27 2019, @05:04PM (#820766)

      you must be new here. just mentioning thruths that are inconvenient to what these idiots think is counterculture (actually programmed into their slave brains by the establishment) is routinely modded as trolling.

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday March 28 2019, @01:16AM

        by Anonymous Coward on Thursday March 28 2019, @01:16AM (#821083)

        just mentioning thruths that are inconvenient to what these idiots think is counterculture (actually programmed into their slave brains by the establishment) is routinely modded as trolling.

        Which is, frankly, why I don't like this system of up/down modding comments her on SN (or that green site). If someone (dis)agrees with someone else's comment I would much rather they tell us why they (dis)agree along with giving us (hopefully) cogent arguments to bolster their case. With the modding of comments you too frequently have a bunch of dittoheads coming through to give us their pretty much useless opinions on the comments of others. Just my take.

  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 27 2019, @05:22PM (1 child)

    by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 27 2019, @05:22PM (#820782)

    The source for the first seems to be the slide set from CDC, it seems to have the same numbers.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 27 2019, @07:01PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 27 2019, @07:01PM (#820877)

      Where did the CDC get them? Can they be traced back to a specific dataset?

  • (Score: 2) by Reziac on Thursday March 28 2019, @06:02AM

    by Reziac (2489) on Thursday March 28 2019, @06:02AM (#821196) Homepage

    There's also a sort of post-measles syndrome that causes the immune system to do a complete shutdown and reset, almost like short-term AIDS. So until either re-exposed or revaccinated, the post-measles patient is once again vulnerable to all sorts of "childhood diseases", even if they previously had good immunity.

    [Too lazy to look up the source again but was from good research, and rather alarming.]

    --
    And there is no Alkibiades to come back and save us from ourselves.