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The Science and Technology Policy Institute (STPI) has found that NASA is unlikely to send humans on a mission near Mars (not including a landing on the surface of Mars) any sooner than 2037:
An independent report concluded that NASA has no chance of sending humans to Mars by 2033, with the earliest such a mission could be flown being the late 2030s.
[...] STPI, at NASA's direction, used the strategy the agency had laid out in its "Exploration Campaign" report, which projects the continued use of the Space Launch System and Orion and development of the lunar Gateway in the 2020s. That would be followed by the Deep Space Transport (DST), a crewed spacecraft that would travel from cislunar space to Mars and back. NASA would also develop lunar landers are related system to support crewed missions to the lunar surface, while also working on systems for later missions to the surface of Mars.
That work, the STPI report concluded, will take too long to complete in time to support a 2033 mission. "We find that even without budget constraints, a Mars 2033 orbital mission cannot be realistically scheduled under NASA's current and notional plans," the report states. "Our analysis suggests that a Mars orbital mission could be carried out no earlier than the 2037 orbital window without accepting large technology development, schedule delay, cost overrun, and budget shortfall risks."
That schedule is driven by the technology risks associated in particular with the Deep Space Transport, including life support systems and propulsion, that require long lead times. A mission to Mars launching in 2033, the report concluded, would need to have critical technologies tested by 2022, which is unlikely. Moving ahead without completing those technologies first, the report stated, will "dramatically increase technology and schedule risks for the DST and could force the DST design to be revised if any one of these technology testing programs reveals problems."
(Score: 5, Interesting) by takyon on Monday April 22 2019, @10:01PM
I'm fine with both premises.
If going to Mars is for national prestige, then there's no rush. Russia, China, India, Japan [japan-forward.com], etc. do not seem poised to send astronauts to Mars before the 2040s. SpaceX has an ambitious mid-2020s target for manned missions to the surface of Mars that will probably slip by at least 5 years. SpaceX landing there would probably be counted as an "American" achievement.
We are doing pretty awful here on Earth if we require ourselves to become multi-planetary within the next 50 years. Awful as in nuclear war imminent. We're not going to have an asteroid wipe out more than possibly a large city during that timeframe. We are good, for now.
The Moon First approach is nice because it's easier and limits the amount of money Beltway Bandits can extract from Congress. Mars First? Spend $200 billion to continue. In the meantime, SpaceX will get us what we need to go to Mars. In fact, SpaceX will get us what we need to get anything serious done in space: fully reusable rockets. These will severely undercut ULA and friends, forcing them to adapt or die. Once we have SpaceX, ULA, Blue Origin, et al. all touting fully reusable rockets, we can talk about building a permanent human presence on the Moon, Mars, space (w/ rotating artificial gravity), or wherever. Permanent without the need for resupply outside of some complicated parts like state-of-the-art computer chips. Add 50 years and ideally anything the colony needs could be made locally.
[SIG] 10/28/2017: Soylent Upgrade v14 [soylentnews.org]