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Columbia Researchers Provide New Evidence on the Reliability of Climate Modeling
The Hadley circulation, or Hadley cell -- a worldwide tropical atmospheric circulation pattern that occurs due to uneven solar heating at different latitudes surrounding the equator -- causes air around the equator to rise to about 10-15 kilometers, flow poleward (toward the North Pole above the equator, the South Pole below the equator), descend in the subtropics, and then flow back to the equator along the Earth's surface. This circulation is widely studied by climate scientists because it controls precipitation in the subtropics and also creates a region called the intertropical convergence zone, producing a band of major, highly-precipitative storms.
[...] Historically, climate models have shown a progressive weakening of the Hadley cell in the Northern Hemisphere. Over the past four decades reanalyses, which combine models with observational and satellite data, have shown just the opposite -- a strengthening of the Hadley circulation in the Northern Hemisphere.
[...] The difference in trends between models and reanalyses poses a problem that goes far beyond whether the Hadley cell is going to weaken or strengthen; the inconsistency itself is a major concern for scientists. Reanalyses are used to validate the reliability of climate models -- if the two disagree, that means that either the models or reanalyses are flawed.
[...] To understand which data was correct -- the models or the reanalyses -- they had to compare the systems using a purely observational metric, untainted by any model or simulation. In this case, precipitation served as an observational proxy for latent heating since it is equal to the net latent heating in the atmospheric column. This observational data revealed that the artifact, or flaw, is in the reanalyses -- confirming that the model projections for the future climate are, in fact, correct.
The paper's findings support previous conclusions drawn from a variety of models -- the Hadley circulation is weakening.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday June 28 2019, @09:41AM (6 children)
Super wordy article - how many of those phrases could've been half the length? - but very interesting.
Key quote:
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Friday June 28 2019, @10:16AM (1 child)
Can you tell from this wordstream, whether it is strengthening or weakening of circulation that increases "precipitation" (aka rainfall)? Can you tell whether that "precipitation served as an observational proxy for latent heating" increased, or decreased? Not a word of the only thing that has a practical meaning. None.
None in the abstract as well, and the article itself is beyond a paywall. Nice.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday June 28 2019, @11:00AM
https://sci-hub.tw/10.1038/s41561-019-0383-x [sci-hub.tw]
(Score: 2) by Bot on Friday June 28 2019, @04:20PM (3 children)
I can summarize it for you.
After decades of adjusting models to match observation, in one case observation was proven inaccurate. Therefore models are cool. I mean, hot.
Account abandoned.
(Score: 4, Touché) by DeathMonkey on Friday June 28 2019, @05:34PM (2 children)
Also known as SCIENCE.
(Score: 0, Touché) by Anonymous Coward on Friday June 28 2019, @06:42PM
Science: The observation, identification, description, experimental investigation, and theoretical explanation of phenomena.
The problem is, in what is being called "science", theoretical explanation is never wrong. We just adjust the numbers and our predictions are now magically right.
We have gotten away from actual science, from the scientific method, and logic - and we've moved to political driven insanity and a form of religious zealotry that is far worse than the fictional straw-man caricature of all the things we hate about religion.
(Score: 2) by Bot on Sunday June 30 2019, @10:22AM
LOL only an economist would say adjusting models to match observation is "science".
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