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We've Already Built too Many Power Plants and Cars to Prevent 1.5 °C of Warming

posted by chromas on Wednesday July 03 2019, @01:50PM   
from the The-Heat-is-On!-?? dept.

martyb writes:

We've Already Built too Many Power Plants and Cars to Prevent 1.5 °C of Warming:

In a [...] paper published in Nature today[*], researchers found we're now likely to sail well past 1.5 ˚C of warming, the aspirational limit set by the Paris climate accords, even if we don't build a single additional power plant, factory, vehicle, or home appliance. Moreover, if these components of the existing energy system operate for as long as they have historically, and we build all the new power facilities already planned, they'll emit about two thirds of the carbon dioxide necessary to crank up global temperatures by 2 ˚C.

If fractions of a degree don't sound that dramatic, consider that 1.5 ˚C of warming could already be enough to expose 14% of the global population to bouts of severe heat, melt nearly 2 million square miles (5 million square kilometers) of Arctic permafrost, and destroy more than 70% of the world's coral reefs. The hop from there to 2 ˚C may subject nearly three times as many people to heat waves, thaw nearly 40% more permafrost, and all but wipe out coral reefs, among other devastating effects, research finds.

The basic conclusion here is, in some ways, striking. We've already built a system that will propel the planet into the dangerous terrain that scientists have warned for decades we must avoid. This means that building lots of renewables and adding lots of green jobs, the focus of much of the policy debate over climate, isn't going to get the job done.

We now have to ask a much harder societal question: How do we begin forcing major and expensive portions of existing energy infrastructure to shut down years, if not decades, before the end of its useful economic life?

Power plants can cost billions of dollars and operate for half a century. Yet the study notes that the average age of coal plants in China and India—two of the major drivers of the increase in "committed emissions" since the earlier paper—­­­­­­­is about 11 and 12 years, respectively.

[*] Monday.

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Original Submission

• Re:Why would Reefs be Effected? Re:Why would Reefs be Effected? (Score: 1) by Sulla on Thursday July 04 2019, @07:45AM (1 child)

  by Sulla (5173) on Thursday July 04 2019, @07:45AM (#863062) Journal

  https://www.imperial.ac.uk/college.asp?P=5257 [imperial.ac.uk]

  The locations of vineyards across the UK during the last 2,000 years and what they may tell us about how our climate has changed will be tackled in a lecture by Professor Richard Selley of Imperial College London on Wednesday 2 June.

  Professor Selley's examination of wineland geology has resulted in the compilation of a database mapping the locations of over 500 ancient and modern British vineyards. He says:

  "Wild vines have grown in Britain for over 50 million years. Only in the Ice Age of the last 2 million years have they retreated, returning during warmer phases such as the present one.

  "The use of vines as a marker for climate change was first suggested some 2,000 years ago by the Roman writer Saserna. This study is another illustration of the old dictum that we inhabit this planet courtesy of its geology."

  Professor Selley's lecture, based on findings published in his book 'Winelands of Britain', will illustrate the changing face of UK vineyards through the Roman and medieval warm phases, and the 'Little Ice Age' of the 15th to 19th centuries, to the modern warm phase of the industrial revolution.

  Integrating geology with predicted patterns of climate change, he will go on to map the distribution of Britain's future winelands. Promising areas over the coming decades include south-facing slopes of the Derbyshire Peak and the Lake Districts but, says Professor Selley, the prime winelands of the future will be in Scotland, particularly the north side of the Great Glen.

  "Here, the geology is similar to the Cape winelands of South Africa," he explains. "It also has sunny south east-facing slopes that will benefit from enhanced solar radiation reflected from the waters of Loch Ness, providing an ideal landscape for viticulture."

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  Ceterum censeo Sinae esse delendam

  Parent

• Re:Why would Reefs be Effected? (Score: 2) by maxwell demon on Friday July 05 2019, @08:03AM

  by maxwell demon (1608) on Friday July 05 2019, @08:03AM (#863402) Journal

  I can't find the claimed 4°C global temperature difference in that link.

  First, that link doesn't talk about global temperatures at all. Second, even for Britain, it doesn't give any temperature numbers. And the only mention of “2000 years ago” is that the Roman writer Saserna did suggest to use vineyards are marker for climate change back then.

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  The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.

  Parent