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We've Already Built too Many Power Plants and Cars to Prevent 1.5 °C of Warming:
In a [...] paper published in Nature today[*], researchers found we're now likely to sail well past 1.5 ˚C of warming, the aspirational limit set by the Paris climate accords, even if we don't build a single additional power plant, factory, vehicle, or home appliance. Moreover, if these components of the existing energy system operate for as long as they have historically, and we build all the new power facilities already planned, they'll emit about two thirds of the carbon dioxide necessary to crank up global temperatures by 2 ˚C.
If fractions of a degree don't sound that dramatic, consider that 1.5 ˚C of warming could already be enough to expose 14% of the global population to bouts of severe heat, melt nearly 2 million square miles (5 million square kilometers) of Arctic permafrost, and destroy more than 70% of the world's coral reefs. The hop from there to 2 ˚C may subject nearly three times as many people to heat waves, thaw nearly 40% more permafrost, and all but wipe out coral reefs, among other devastating effects, research finds.
The basic conclusion here is, in some ways, striking. We've already built a system that will propel the planet into the dangerous terrain that scientists have warned for decades we must avoid. This means that building lots of renewables and adding lots of green jobs, the focus of much of the policy debate over climate, isn't going to get the job done.
We now have to ask a much harder societal question: How do we begin forcing major and expensive portions of existing energy infrastructure to shut down years, if not decades, before the end of its useful economic life?
Power plants can cost billions of dollars and operate for half a century. Yet the study notes that the average age of coal plants in China and India—two of the major drivers of the increase in "committed emissions" since the earlier paper—is about 11 and 12 years, respectively.
[*] Monday.
(Score: 2) by GreatAuntAnesthesia on Thursday July 04 2019, @08:17AM (1 child)
> I for one find it telling that there are a lot of people for whom "blot out the sun" is seen as less drastic than "substantially reduce CO2 emissions".
First, I specifically said we should do this IN ADDITION to reducing CO2 emissions. But to address your point:
It's not that this is seen as "less drastic" than CO2 reduction, this is altogether MORE drastic. But drastic times call for drastic measures, and in the end this is just more pragmatic. Face it, we've been trying to get people to reduce CO2 for nigh on forty years, and STILL hardly anyone is listening. Then, as soon as a generation that almost seems to give a shit actually gets the reins of power and starts signing treaties and taking (modest) action, up pops some twatcumber like Trump to roll back everything that has been fought for. It's almost as if there were some huge, shadowy, massively rich and powerful cabal pulling the strings of power, with a vested interest in continuing to burn carbon. But that's just crazy talk, right?
Also, even if we about-turned right now and made improbably huge gains in CO2 reduction, we are still on an unavoidable course to at least 1.5, if not 2 degrees or more of warming. No amount of CO2 reduction can stop that now. But maybe 10 years of artificial winter over the poles to restore some ice and increase albedo would help. OK, Sucks to be a polar bear, but it seems they are pretty much fucked anyway.
(Score: 2) by Thexalon on Thursday July 04 2019, @01:43PM
It's not that "hardly anybody is listening", exactly.
The Europeans are listening, in a big way, and have cut their carbon emissions by about 20% and are continuing measures to reduce that number even further.
The USA is listening enough that their carbon emissions haven't been increasing for the last 20 years, which is in fact an accomplishment given capitalism's drive for infinite growth curves.
The problem is that the Chinese and Indians have decided to aggressively burn as much coal as they can until somebody makes them stop.
The only thing that stops a bad guy with a compiler is a good guy with a compiler.