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posted by takyon on Thursday January 30 2020, @10:52PM   Printer-friendly
from the last-week dept.

Coronavirus declared global health emergency by WHO

The new coronavirus has been declared a global emergency by the World Health Organization, as the outbreak continues to spread outside China.

"The main reason for this declaration is not what is happening in China but what is happening in other countries," said WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

The concern is that it could spread to countries with weaker health systems.

1st Person-To-Person Spread Of Coronavirus Has Occurred In U.S., CDC Says

Coronavirus: US reports first person-to-person transmission

Chicago health officials have reported the first US case of human-to-human transmission of the deadly coronavirus.

The new patient is the spouse of a Chicago woman who carried the infection back from Wuhan, China, the US Centers for Disease Control said on Thursday.

The discovery marks the second report of the virus in Illinois and the sixth confirmed case in the US.

This paper provides early estimates of 2019-nCoV epidemiological parameters: Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions (open, DOI: 10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549) (DX)

Used model does not offer much grounds for optimism.

Previously:


Original Submission #1Original Submission #2Original Submission #3

 
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  • (Score: 1) by Adam on Friday January 31 2020, @01:33AM (4 children)

    by Adam (2168) on Friday January 31 2020, @01:33AM (#951536)

    Regular flu kills 0.1% of people who catch it (these days). This coronavirus has killed ~2% of the infected at this point.

  • (Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Friday January 31 2020, @03:04AM (1 child)

    by Anonymous Coward on Friday January 31 2020, @03:04AM (#951604)

    That's inaccurate. Maybe 0.1% of a vulnerable sub-population. The 1,000 student high school by me doesn't have a death a year to influenza. Envelope check your math - a 0.1% death rate, assuming half the population catches the flu twice a year, would be staggering.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday January 31 2020, @03:58AM

      by Anonymous Coward on Friday January 31 2020, @03:58AM (#951636)

      That's inaccurate. Maybe 0.1% of a vulnerable sub-population.

      I've got to partly agree with this. I had what I suspect was the flu once several years ago. Almost two weeks of high fever, sweating, and generalised pain. I lost more than 20lb (even after it was over and I was rehydrated I was 20lb lighter). But I didn't go to a doctor, and that case would not be recorded in any statistics, either as a flu case or as a survivor.

      Envelope check your math - a 0.1% death rate, assuming half the population catches the flu twice a year, would be staggering.

      But not with this. Assuming half get it twice per year is the same as everybody getting it every year. That is ridiculous. Wikipedia says 5 million cases per year worldwide which is a 1 in a 1400 chance of getting it each year. I think that estimate might be low due to the reason in the first part, but not by a factor of 1400.

  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday January 31 2020, @07:37AM (1 child)

    by Anonymous Coward on Friday January 31 2020, @07:37AM (#951689)

    More like 2% of those who were identified to have it. Not the same as 2% of those infected.

    Not all who are infected would go to a hospital to contribute to the statistics.

    I'd only go to the hospital if I'm sick enough. If I was sick but not feeling that bad I wouldn't go to the hospital (especially at this time) - because that's where lots of people with germs, including superbugs are... So I might have the coronavirus or it could be flu or something with similar symptoms but nobody would know what it was.

    I'd stay home, load up on zinc, vitamin C, lie in bed, keep body warm and head not too warm.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday January 31 2020, @12:53PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Friday January 31 2020, @12:53PM (#951736)

      > "I'd stay home, load up on zinc, vitamin C, lie in bed, keep body warm and head not too warm."

      Don't forget lots of fluids and chicken soup.