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Coronavirus declared global health emergency by WHO
The new coronavirus has been declared a global emergency by the World Health Organization, as the outbreak continues to spread outside China.
"The main reason for this declaration is not what is happening in China but what is happening in other countries," said WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.
The concern is that it could spread to countries with weaker health systems.
1st Person-To-Person Spread Of Coronavirus Has Occurred In U.S., CDC Says
Coronavirus: US reports first person-to-person transmission
Chicago health officials have reported the first US case of human-to-human transmission of the deadly coronavirus.
The new patient is the spouse of a Chicago woman who carried the infection back from Wuhan, China, the US Centers for Disease Control said on Thursday.
The discovery marks the second report of the virus in Illinois and the sixth confirmed case in the US.
This paper provides early estimates of 2019-nCoV epidemiological parameters: Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions (open, DOI: 10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549) (DX)
Used model does not offer much grounds for optimism.
Previously:
China Reports 3rd Death, Nearly 140 New Cases of Coronavirus
China Confirms Human-To-Human Transmission of New Coronavirus; CDC Confirms First US Case
Coronavirus: Millions Quarantined in Wuhan City
China Battles Coronavirus Outbreak: All the Latest Updates
In The Pipeline: Coronavirus
Plague Inc. Maker: Don't use our Game for Coronavirus Modeling
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(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Friday January 31 2020, @03:04AM (1 child)
That's inaccurate. Maybe 0.1% of a vulnerable sub-population. The 1,000 student high school by me doesn't have a death a year to influenza. Envelope check your math - a 0.1% death rate, assuming half the population catches the flu twice a year, would be staggering.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday January 31 2020, @03:58AM
I've got to partly agree with this. I had what I suspect was the flu once several years ago. Almost two weeks of high fever, sweating, and generalised pain. I lost more than 20lb (even after it was over and I was rehydrated I was 20lb lighter). But I didn't go to a doctor, and that case would not be recorded in any statistics, either as a flu case or as a survivor.
But not with this. Assuming half get it twice per year is the same as everybody getting it every year. That is ridiculous. Wikipedia says 5 million cases per year worldwide which is a 1 in a 1400 chance of getting it each year. I think that estimate might be low due to the reason in the first part, but not by a factor of 1400.