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posted by martyb on Thursday February 27 2020, @03:46PM   Printer-friendly

Clinical trials of remdesivir, an experimental drug to treat COVID-19, have begun at the University of Nebraska Medical Center (UNMC) in Omaha. More detail is provided in an article posted by the National Institutes of Health. The initial trial will involve 400 patients and will be conducted internationally but is beginning in Nebraska. There are currently 15 patients being monitored at UNMC, 13 of whom have tested positive for COVID-19. According to the daily update from UNMC, all of the 15 patients are now in the National Quarantine Unit, which has 20 beds. Previously, some of the patients had been in the Nebraska Biocontainment Unit, which is the largest facility of its kind in the country and had previously been used to treat ebola patients.

Note: The February 25 edition of the daily update mentioned the clinical trial, so there's a good possibility that additional updates will be posted in UNMC's daily update. The additional discussion may help explain why the trial is beginning in Nebraska even though there haven't been any cases that reported there -- all of the COVID-19 patients at UNMC were either sent there originally or were previously quarantined at Camp Ashland or were transported there from elsewhere.

Australia has activated its emergency response plan for global pandemics as the coronavirus spreads rapidly outside of China. The plan to deal with a large scale coronovirus outbreak is named "The COVID-19 plan". The plan notes that there are three levels of outbreak to consider, with a "high" outbreak being comparable to the extreme 1918 "Spanish flu" which infected one third of Australians and killed between 50 to 100 million people globally.

As the potential for the coronavirus to break out into a pandemic increases, people are flocking to stores for hand sanitizer with shelves in Australia and other countries out of stock of the items.

If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.


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  • (Score: 2) by DannyB on Thursday February 27 2020, @06:11PM (11 children)

    by DannyB (5839) Subscriber Badge on Thursday February 27 2020, @06:11PM (#963631) Journal

    My national leaders tell me that the flu is far worse than Coronavirus. So why are we even talking about Coronavirus?

    All those other stupid countries keep talking about coronavirus. Germany warns it is at the beginning of a coronavirus epidemic. Japan closing all schools nationally over it. Did Japan ever close all its schools over "the flew flue bro"?

    --
    People today are educated enough to repeat what they are taught but not to question what they are taught.
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  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday February 27 2020, @07:16PM (2 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Thursday February 27 2020, @07:16PM (#963667)

    My national leaders tell me that the flu is far worse than Coronavirus. So why are we even talking about Coronavirus?

    Because the media want to pump up the common cold to the bubonic plague for advertising eyeballs.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday February 27 2020, @07:18PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Thursday February 27 2020, @07:18PM (#963670)

      ok coofer

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday February 27 2020, @10:54PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Thursday February 27 2020, @10:54PM (#963834)

      pump up the common cold to the bubonic plague for advertising eyeballs

      That, and it's the next attempt to torpedo the Trump economy in order to get Warren elected in November.

  • (Score: 3, Troll) by EETech1 on Friday February 28 2020, @01:06AM (7 children)

    by EETech1 (957) on Friday February 28 2020, @01:06AM (#963888)

    30,000,000 got the flu so far this year, and 30,000 died or 0.1 percent.

    So far 7 percent of the people who have gotten COVID-19 have died.

    So for the same 30,000,000 infected, you'll see over 2,000,000 deaths instead of 30,000!

    It's currently 70 times more lethal!

    Not to mention it takes up to two weeks to show symptoms, and it can last 10 days on a doorknob.

    • (Score: 2) by quietus on Friday February 28 2020, @08:24AM (6 children)

      by quietus (6328) on Friday February 28 2020, @08:24AM (#964030) Journal

      No. Your figures are completely bogus -- where did you get them?
      For Europe, 40,000 people die every year from the flu. The fatality rate for corona according to WHO estimate lies around 2%. It varies between regions, in the range of 0.1% and 4%.

      John Hopkins Institute offers a reliable monitor of the situation. The Lancet has a special section dedicated to all the known medical info about covid-19, and then ofcourse there's the WHO itself.

      • (Score: 2) by EETech1 on Friday February 28 2020, @08:46AM (2 children)

        by EETech1 (957) on Friday February 28 2020, @08:46AM (#964035)

        From:
        https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#case-dayly-outchina [worldometers.info]

        Currently Infected
        44,211
        Mild Condition
        36,120
        (82%)
        Serious or Critical
        8,091
        (18%)

        Cases with Outcome
        39,495
        Recovered/Discharged
        36,636
        (93%)
        Deaths
        2,859
        (7%)

        From:
        https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/ [worldometers.info]

        How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak
        The case fatality rate (CFR) represents the proportion of cases who eventually die from a disease.

        Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases.

        But while an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, "naïve" and can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients." [8]

        (Methods for Estimating the Case Fatality Ratio for a Novel, Emerging Infectious Disease - Ghani et al, American Journal of Epidemiology).

        In other words, current deaths belong to a total case figure of the past, not to the current case figure in which the outcome (recovery or death) of a proportion (the most recent cases) hasn't yet been determined.

        The correct formula, therefore, would appear to be:

        CFR = deaths at day.x / cases at day.x-{T}
        (where T = average time period from case confirmation to death)

        This would constitute a fair attempt to use values for cases and deaths belonging to the same group of patients.

        One issue can be that of determining whether there is enough data to estimate T with any precision, but it is certainly not T = 0 (what is implicitly used when applying the formula current deaths / current cases to determine CFR during an ongoing outbreak).

        Let's take, for example, the data at the end of February 8, 2020: 813 deaths (cumulative total) and 37,552 cases (cumulative total) worldwide.

        If we use the formula (deaths / cases) we get:

        813 / 37,552 = 2.2% CFR (flawed formula).

        With a conservative estimate of T = 7 days as the average period from case confirmation to death, we would correct the above formula by using February 1 cumulative cases, which were 14,381, in the denominator:

        Feb. 8 deaths / Feb. 1 cases = 813 / 14,381 = 5.7% CFR (correct formula, and estimating T=7).

        T could be estimated by simply looking at the value of (current total deaths + current total recovered) and pair it with a case total in the past that has the same value. For the above formula, the matching dates would be January 26/27, providing an estimate for T of 12 to 13 days. This method of estimating T uses the same logic of the following method, and therefore will yield the same result.

        An alternative method, which has the advantage of not having to estimate a variable, and that is mentioned in the American Journal of Epidemiology study cited previously as a simple method that nevertheless could work reasonably well if the hazards of death and recovery at any time t measured from admission to the hospital, conditional on an event occurring at time t, are proportional, would be to use the formula:

        CFR = deaths / (deaths + recovered)

        which, with the latest data available, would be equal to:

        2,859 / (2,859 + 36,636) = 7% CFR (worldwide)

        If we now exclude cases in mainland China, using current data on deaths and recovered cases, we get:

        71 / (71 + 397) = 15.2% CFR (outside of mainland China)

        The sample size above is extremely limited, but this discrepancy in mortality rates, if confirmed as the sample grows in size, could be explained with a higher case detection rate outside of China especially with respect to Wuhan, where priority had to be initially placed on severe and critical cases, given the ongoing emergency.

        Unreported cases would have the effect of decreasing the denominator and inflating the CFR above its real value. For example, assuming 10,000 total unreported cases in Wuhan and adding them back to the formula, we would get a CFR of 5.8% (quite different from the CFR of 7% based strictly on confirmed cases).

        .

        • (Score: 3, Insightful) by quietus on Friday February 28 2020, @09:30AM

          by quietus (6328) on Friday February 28 2020, @09:30AM (#964045) Journal

          No. CFR is number of deaths out of total number of infections, not out of number of recoveries. Total number of infections equals total number of recoveries (i.e. not infected anymore) + current number of infections. End result: about 2%.

          Finally: why would worldometer be any more reliable than The Lancet, or John Hopkins, the Mayo Clinic, WHO, Nature or any other medical/ scientific publication/organisation?

        • (Score: 2) by DannyB on Friday February 28 2020, @02:50PM

          by DannyB (5839) Subscriber Badge on Friday February 28 2020, @02:50PM (#964121) Journal

          Careful, comrade!

          The Ministry of Truth will not like this.

          --
          People today are educated enough to repeat what they are taught but not to question what they are taught.
      • (Score: 2) by EETech1 on Friday February 28 2020, @08:56AM (1 child)

        by EETech1 (957) on Friday February 28 2020, @08:56AM (#964039)

        For the flu:

        https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html [cdc.gov]

        CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza

        • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday February 28 2020, @07:47PM

          by Anonymous Coward on Friday February 28 2020, @07:47PM (#964296)

          Mortality seems to be in the range of the 1918-1919 Spanish Influenza pandemic.

      • (Score: 2) by EETech1 on Friday February 28 2020, @09:03AM

        by EETech1 (957) on Friday February 28 2020, @09:03AM (#964040)

        How long it can survive on a surface:

        https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/coronaviruses-how-long-can-they-survive-on-surfaces#How-long-do-coronaviruses-persist? [medicalnewstoday.com]

        How long do coronaviruses persist?
        The first section of the new paper focuses on how long coronaviruses can survive on inanimate surfaces, such as tables and door handles. The authors show that, depending on the material and the conditions, human coronaviruses can remain infectious from 2 hours to 9 days.

        At temperatures of around 4°C or 39.2oF, certain versions of the coronavirus could remain viable for up to 28 days. At temperatures of 30–40°C (86–104°F), coronaviruses tended to persist for a shorter time.

        At room temperature, a coronavirus responsible for the common cold (HCoV-229E) persisted significantly longer in 50% humidity than 30% humidity. Overall, the authors conclude:

        “Human coronaviruses can remain infectious on inanimate surfaces at room temperature for up to 9 days. At a temperature of 30°C [86°F] or more, the duration of persistence is shorter. Veterinary coronaviruses have been shown to persist even longer for 28 d[ays].