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Many nations have begun to take special measures to address the problem of the spread of the COVID-19 virus over every continent. It would be pointless to report the details of all such measures; they are limited to each specific country and liable to frequent change as the situation develops. The USA FDA (Food and Drug Administration) have carried out what they describe as a "Supply Change Update", see the link below, but for others we suggest using a bit of web-search-fu to discover a site more appropriate to your own area of interest.
Worldwide, newspapers and other media need to maintain sales and subscriptions — many tend, therefore, to sensationalize their reporting. This has two undesirable effects: firstly it can result in data being quoted out of context to support the report they are making and, secondly, it tends to stress the possible effects of the COVID pandemic, should it be declared as such. In a comment elsewhere, I reported 2 tables which contain the most accurate figures we can find from a reputable source. They indicate the vulnerability of people to the virus by age, and any links to comorbidity (as far as they are known). There is no doubt that the virus poses a serious threat but it is not the same for all ages and many deaths are attributed to a combination of COVID-19 infection and other pre-existing conditions. For the latter it has not be proven that the virus was the sole cause of death; it is possible that the person would have died anyway. As postmortems have not been carried out in the vast majority of cases, the figures are open to misinterpretation. The WHO (World Health Organization) stresses that they will be unable to clarify these findings for a long time to come.
As it stands, for a person below the age of 70 with no other medical conditions, the chances of dying from a COVID-19 infection is less than 1%. That is still a large number of people at risk and the implications for every nation are significant. It is, however, much lower than some of the figures that have been quoted in the press. The figures for people over 70 and with other conditions cause the rate to rise quite sharply, and I would suggest that we all keep an watchful eye on the elderly or infirm members of our family and friends.
The majority of people will only suffer mild flu-like symptoms and will make a full recovery. - janrinok
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Supply Chain Update
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Supply Chain Update:
As I have previously communicated, the FDA has been closely monitoring the supply chain with the expectation that the COVID-19 outbreak would likely impact the medical product supply chain, including potential disruptions to supply or shortages of critical medical products in the U.S.
A manufacturer has alerted us to a shortage of a human drug that was recently added to the drug shortages list. The manufacturer just notified us that this shortage is related to a site affected by coronavirus. The shortage is due to an issue with manufacturing of an active pharmaceutical ingredient used in the drug. It is important to note that there are other alternatives that can be used by patients. We are working with the manufacturer as well as other manufacturers to mitigate the shortage. We will do everything possible to mitigate the shortage.
Additional Information on Human Drugs
Since January 24, the FDA has been in touch with more than 180 manufacturers of human drugs, not only to remind them of applicable legal requirements for notifying the FDA of any anticipated supply disruptions, but also asking them to evaluate their entire supply chain, including active pharmaceutical ingredients (the main ingredient in the drug and part that produces the intended effects, e.g., acetaminophen) and other components manufactured in China.
Also, as part of our efforts, the FDA has identified about 20 other drugs, which solely source their active pharmaceutical ingredients or finished drug products from China. We have been in contact with those firms to assess whether they face any drug shortage risks due to the outbreak. None of these firms have reported any shortage to date. Also, these drugs are considered non-critical drugs.
We will remain in contact with manufacturers so that we can continue to assist them with any potential issues in the fastest way.
The report continues for several pages and covers a variety of issues relevant to the USA.
Coronavirus lessons from the 1918-1919 Spanish flu
As the threat of additional community spreading of the coronavirus in the US grows, at least some people are recommending large-scale quarantines in American cities. There is precedent for this with the 1918-1919 Spanish flu and evidence that it was effective at curbing fatalities. Cities like St. Louis, Kansas City, Milwaukee, and San Francisco implemented strict quarantines early during the spread of infections and experienced lower fatality rates than cities that waited to impose quarantines. The quarantine in St. Louis was particularly notable because it was one of the top ten largest cities in the US at that time. On October 5, 1918, St. Louis ordered a wide range of measures being proposed currently for mitigating the coronavirus such as closing schools and other public places and many businesses.
Coronavirus Outbreak: All the Latest Updates
Coronavirus outbreak: All the latest updates:
Hopes that the coronavirus would be contained to China have vanished as the first case in sub-Saharan Africa was announced in Nigeria, while number of infections continue to grow in Europe pounding stock markets amid fears of a global recession.
On Friday, the US State Department raised its alert level for Italy, warning Americans to reconsider travel due to the outbreak. "Many cases of COVID-19 have been associated with travel to or from mainland China or close contact with a travel-related case, but sustained community spread has been reported in Italy," the department added. Italy has reported 650 coronavirus cases and 17 deaths - the most in Europe from the epidemic that originated in China, which is by far the most affected country.
The US on Friday warned against non-essential travel to Italy, a top destination for US tourists, over the growing coronavirus epidemic. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention "recommends that travellers avoid all nonessential travel to Italy. There is limited access to adequate medical care in affected areas," it said in a statement.
In China - the epicentre of the deadly disease - the National Health Commission reported on Saturday at least 47 new coronavirus deaths, bringing to 2,835 the number of fatalities nationwide. >There were also 427 new infections, up from 327 the previous day, pushing the confirmed cases in mainland China so far to 79,251, and more than 83,000 worldwide. Of the total number of deaths, at least 45 were from Hubei, the epicentre of the outbreak. Of the 45 deaths in Hubei, 37 were from the city of Wuhan.
The US state of California has confirmed a second case of coronavirus. "Now we have a case who did not recently travel or come in contact with anyone known to be ill," Sara Cody, the director of public health for Santa Clara County, near San Francisco, told reporters. She said the second patient is an adult woman who is being treated at a hospital.
Two South Africans on board the quarantined Diamond Princess cruise ship have tested positive for the coronavirus, according to a state-run medical institute. "We confirm that these citizens are currently being treated in Japan and are in good care," said a statement by the National Institute for Communicable Diseases.
Three Confirmed Cases of Corona Virus in Washington State
Washington State Department of Health reports there are now three confirmed cases of Coronavirus inside the state: https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/Coronavirus with 1 case in King County and 2 cases in Snohomish County. Seattle is inside King County and Snohomish is just north of King.
ABC reports that the infections are of unknown origin and that more potential cases exist in the bordering state of Oregon.
A second case of COVID-19 with an unknown origin was identified in Santa Clara county, California on Friday, and two other potential cases of unknown origin were identified in Oregon and Washington state.
NPR calls Seattle the first confirmed case of Corona virus in the US:
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the CDC, has reported the first case in the United States of a new and deadly coronavirus. A resident of Washington state in the Seattle area is infected. The man had traveled to central China to the city of Wuhan, where the virus was first discovered. It has killed at least 17 people, and scientists now say humans can transmit the virus to one another. And as Will Stone from member station KNKX in Seattle reports, officials in Washington state are trying to prevent the spread of the virus, and also projecting calm.
My own analysis indicates that the symptom profile has changed as well from flu like symptoms to mild flu like symptoms or mild cold like symptoms and more specifically that fever is not mandatory any longer but I am not able to find sources reliable enough to include in a submission.
Three More People Test Positive in England
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51684624
Three more people from England have tested positive for coronavirus, taking the total number of UK cases to 23.
Two of the patients had recently returned from Italy, while the other had come back from Asia, chief medical officer Prof Chris Whitty said.
The cases are from Gloucestershire, Hertfordshire and Berkshire.
It comes as health officials try to discover how a man from Surrey caught the virus, after he became the first person to be infected within the UK.
The man, who is being treated at Guy's and St Thomas' Hospital in central London, had not been abroad recently - unlike the other cases in the UK.
[...] Ten more cases of the virus in the UK in just over two days might raise eyebrows, but health officials say all but one can be easily explained because the patients have travelled from the most affected countries, including Northern Italy and Iran.
Since the first UK cases were confirmed in York - two Chinese nationals - positive tests have been recorded in the south of England, Derbyshire, south Wales and Northern Ireland.
Government's Mixed Messages On Coronavirus Are Dangerous: Experts
Arthur T Knackerbracket has found the following story:
“It’s really important for the U.S. government to be speaking with one common voice about these issues right now,” Tom Inglesby, an infectious diseases physician and director of the Center for Health Security of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, tells STAT.
That’s not happening. On Tuesday (January 25), a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) official announced that COVID-19 could start spreading at the community level in the US shortly and that if the outbreak did hit the states, there could be “severe” disruptions to daily life. The next day, President Donald Trump held an evening press conference in which he said he didn’t think an outbreak in the US is inevitable. “I don’t think it’s inevitable because we’re doing a really good job in terms of maintaining borders and turning—in terms of letting people in, in terms of checking people,” he told reporters. He did not mention a new disease case reported the same day in California that couldn’t be accounted for by foreign travel or contact with someone known to be infected.
In the same press conference, Trump contradicted his own health officials. He predicted that there might be just one or two more people who report being infected in the next short period of time, yet, minutes later, Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Alex Azar and CDC Principal Deputy Director Anne Schuchat both said that they expected the number of infections to grow. There are currently 60 reported cases of COVID-19 in the US.
Earlier in February, Trump also said the spread of the virus could dissipate by April when the weather warms. While some viruses, such as the flu, don’t spread as easily in higher temperatures, it is not clear SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, is one of them. Government officials saying that the coronavirus outbreak is just like the flu isn’t entirely accurate, notes Ronald Klain, who oversaw the Ebola response in President Barack Obama’s administration. He responded to comments Tuesday by Chad Wolf, acting secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, in testimony before Congress. “The responsible answer [to whether the outbreak is like the flu] is ‘we don’t know yet,’” Klain said.
“Americans need facts and science—not reassurance that all will be well. The presidential press conference on the coronavirus pandemic was, sadly, a disappointment,” Arthur Caplan, a bioethicist at NYU Langone Health, says in a statement emailed to The Scientist.
Disagreement between the State Department and CDC about the decision to fly home 14 Americans infected with SARS-CoV-2 also led to questions about who was leading the effort to contain the disease in the US. The CDC recommended that the patients not be flown home from Tokyo after leaving quarantine on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, but the State Department overruled the recommendation, according to The Washington Post.
Government messaging may become more consistent, as President Trump announced Wednesday (January 26) that Vice President Mike Pence would be coordinating the response to the disease threat going forward. Now, government health officials and scientists are required to coordinate any statements and public appearances with Pence’s office, officials tell The New York Times reports. That includes Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
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(Score: 4, Insightful) by JoeMerchant on Sunday March 01 2020, @04:00AM (43 children)
Just for my own edification, I looked up US death rates from normal flu - they run between 12,000 and 60,000 annually, depending on the severity of the season.
The first US death attributable to COVID-19 was officially recorded today: a 50 year old man in Oregon.
What I want to know is: who wants this global panic? Who is benefiting and is exercising their capacity to fan the flames of fear?
🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday March 01 2020, @04:06AM (2 children)
Democrats. It is in their best interest if the world is burning down or the economy crashing around Trump in order to remove attention from the DumpsterFire National Committee.
(Score: 0, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday March 01 2020, @07:08PM (1 child)
That's right - they practically frothing at the mouth over End Times and prepping for Revelation. God help them.
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday March 01 2020, @07:34PM
Why do Republican administrations always end in panics? 1929, with Hoover, 2008 with Bush, and now the "we're all gonna die!!!!" corona virus. Almost like it was a feature, not a bug. Or virus.
(Score: 4, Interesting) by Knowledge Troll on Sunday March 01 2020, @04:31AM (5 children)
Off the top of my head: the media's ratings are likely through the roof though I've not checked, lots of opportunity here to make Trump look bad (and he is indulging) and lots of groups are into that, the stock market slip is entirely predictable and so is the rebound and anyone who knows that can get financial benefit, and I'm sure there are people hoping this will spark $revolution they would like to see.
The media really. Everyone else has to do it through them except the Government. Everyone will assume I mean the mainstream typically left oriented media and I do but I also mean stuff like Rush Limbaugh saying this is only a cold and a democrat conspiracy. Well I suppose I'll see arguments about the government also fanning the flames of fear but I can't immediately cite it.
(Score: 2) by bzipitidoo on Sunday March 01 2020, @07:42AM (4 children)
Yeah, agree. Trust the media to hype it to the max. Every few years, there's some new terrible disease. Couple of years ago, it was Zika. Before that, Ebola. Way back in the 1980s and 1990s, it was AIDS. And when it's not something most people have never heard of before, it's some new flu strain that is, of course, more virulent and dangerous than average.
An additional danger of AIDS was the prejudice it tapped. I strongly suspect a lot of religious conservatives sort of didn't mind AIDS so long as it seemed to afflict mostly the gay community. Probably whispered among themselves it was a punishment from God for the "sin" of homosexuality.
Other than such idiocy blunting a sensible response, diseases simply aren't as dangerous as they once were. Modern medicine can do a lot . We're not laboring in complete ignorance of microbes, as our ancestors were in the Middle Ages.
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Sunday March 01 2020, @01:59PM (1 child)
So, AIDS was quite real, and the awareness campaigns did a lot to prevent spread, educate, and even IMO break down a bit of prejudice (can't tackle that one all at one go, but there's clearly more awareness and acceptance of LGBQT since so many prominent celebrities died of AIDS...)
West Nile and Zika, while not world-threatening, have influenced my behavior away from things like sleeping in unscreened bedrooms in the tropics, and that's probably been a "very good thing" for everyone who managed to reduce their mosquito blood donation levels.
This is the big one - I do wonder, if the Spanish Flu of 1918 had hit today would it have even killed 5 million?
🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday March 01 2020, @05:26PM
The population wasn't as mobile in 1918. Today it might spread faster.
(Score: 2) by Joe Desertrat on Sunday March 01 2020, @10:44PM
Doubly so because it is a science issue. It often seems even the ones trying to report something correctly can't get it right.
(Score: 2) by edIII on Monday March 02 2020, @07:25AM
Uhhh, I'm not caring about what the media says. Yeah, they may be hyping it up for "sweeps week" type bullshit. Zika was not even in the same ballpark as this. I could get Zika and not die, but just have a much higher risk for kid with a deformed head. Ebola is always not the same at all, because it shows symptoms that much faster. Apples and oranges really.
Medical advances also have nothing to do with the hype either. It's how fast can you get the advance, how well are you supplied, and basically your current logistics and resources. The fact they came up with something for Ebola at all, makes me agree with you that medical advances are indeed coming. If we can survive long enough, humanity seems likely to crack highly advanced medical within the next couple hundred years. Practically, it's what can we do today though, in today's market, with today's supply chains, etc.
The reason this is concerning, is just the numbers. If you believe the numbers from the scientists, and believe the statement from the CDC [cdc.gov], then there is some cause for concern. That's not hyping anything.
If the media reported that there was a million gallons of nitro glycerin held in containers in a building, and we knew it could be hit next week by a another building falling down on top of it, and actual scientists give us accurate numbers about what happens when it explodes, is the media hyping the explosion? Just for reporting it?
I think the media isn't hyping anything, unless you're talking about the far right conservative response. That's hyping up apathy, blind faith, believe in hoaxes and political motivated stunts, etc. What I got from the media, were things that could be verified with government statements very easily. Like the community spread statement I cited. I'm not sure where to find official statements regarding the whistleblower statement, but I'm trying to get a direct link to it to cite it. They were legitimately pointing out that the current response was inadequate, and if the whistleblower report is true, represents something that needs to be handled immediately. So I see public service that we actually want out of our journalists vs hyping a story for max ad impressions.
The numbers from that worldcounters website from above aren't hype either.
I agree with you, that idiocy is blunting a sensible response. That sensible response is to respond to the data, and have data-driven decisions. Looking at the data, the fact it isn't as dangerous as some of its predecessors is precisely why it can create a perfect storm capable of overwhelming capacity to respond.
It's just numbers. How many beds. How many ventilators. How many test kits. How many doses of experimental cure. How many current community cases, and how many projected. Rate of spread taking into account current and forecasted social distancing. Pure numbers. Those numbers show the problem.
So it's super easy to calm everyone down then. Show, with numbers, that overwhelming capacity is unlikely, and that mortality rate will be lower, and that containment is still possible.
Technically, lunchtime is at any moment. It's just a wave function.
(Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Sunday March 01 2020, @04:58AM
Remember the Maine!
"You furnish the pictures and I'll furnish the war."
La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
(Score: 2) by RS3 on Sunday March 01 2020, @05:33AM (8 children)
> The first US death attributable to COVID-19 was officially recorded today: a 50 year old man in Oregon.
The story I read said he had other medical problems too.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday March 01 2020, @07:49AM
One of those was not being from Oregon? My Gawd, people. Do you get your information from Trump pressers, where it was a very nice lady who only drove it to Church on Sundays?
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Sunday March 01 2020, @02:02PM (6 children)
I only read the headline, I assumed the story would get into his complicating factors, and whether the story got into it or not, he's #1, after all this time and hoopla, after at least 2000 US deaths from "normal" flu, now we've finally got #1.
I don't feel like the hospitals are overflowing yet.
🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday March 01 2020, @02:43PM (3 children)
> I don't feel like the hospitals are overflowing yet.
No one expects exponential growth (with an apology to Monty Python):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth [wikipedia.org]
Anyone have a clue what the exponent is this time?
(Score: 1, Touché) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday March 01 2020, @03:37PM (2 children)
> Anyone have a clue what the exponent is this time?
It's the small number they draw on the top right next to the other one.
(Score: 2) by RS3 on Sunday March 01 2020, @10:30PM (1 child)
It's the small number they draw on the top right next to the other one, but that's not important right now.
Sorry, that's from some lines from some old movies...
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday March 02 2020, @12:52AM
And stop calling me Shirley!
(Score: 2) by RS3 on Sunday March 01 2020, @10:34PM (1 child)
Yeah, I was trying to amplify your point- that the only US death so far was someone who was already sick with other problems. I don't know the comorbidities.
I hate hype, overreaction, etc., but maybe this will get people into some better habits, like better handwashing, etc. I'm usually pretty good with hygiene, but I do think about it a little more now.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday March 02 2020, @01:36PM
I almost always wash my hands before going to the toilet.
(Score: 2, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday March 01 2020, @06:17AM (6 children)
Real state of politics: prior to corona, Sanders looked/looks likely to win the DNC nomination, and Trump's approval rating was moving into the positive (49 vs 48). DNC and its media is looking to shake things up in any way possible. The virus is pretty nasty stuff, but the media is currently obviously trying to start a panic over it. I think the goal is to try to disrupt the markets and just generally try to unsettle society, since practically any outcome (from their myopic perception) would be better than the status quo.
(Score: 5, Interesting) by janrinok on Sunday March 01 2020, @09:34AM (4 children)
Why does this have to have a political driver behind it? This is happening worldwide - it has got nothing at all to do with US politics.
However, if your media is trying to present it in a way that shows that the US government is ill-prepared for a pandemic, well the same could probably be said about ANY government. Three months ago nobody had even heard of this virus, let alone did anyone have stockpiles of equipment, contingency plans or a health care system that is in a good position to treat the large number of potential cases and to counter the risks that the virus presents. We are all having to react from a standing start - not every idea will be a good one, mistakes will be made, and lives will be lost. What is needed now is international cooperation. Share the good ideas and also admit the lessons learned from the bad. Let's solve the problem and not try to settle old scores. All political parties in all countries should be playing their part.
How about military hospitals being created in relatively remote areas so that for the less serious cases where isolation and relatively simple medical care can be provided, freeing the more expensive resources for the more serious cases?
Doesn't anybody 'think' about what they read and hear from TV in the USA?
(Score: 3, Insightful) by Knowledge Troll on Sunday March 01 2020, @10:22AM (1 child)
No. We are suffering greatly from a lack of critical analysis which has been a long running problem. In this specific case it seems to be made worse by inflexible positions and partisanship.
I made the mistake of saying "The media is doing everything they can to attack Trump using this virus as a weapon and it's to the detriment of us all!" in the vicinity of an absolute Trump hater. A Trump hater that I often enjoy hating on Trump with. I don't hate Trump so much that everything anti-Trump becomes good though and I certainly did not expect them to go that way. But they did and I got back defense of the media's handling of the situation. My point has been consistently that the media has not been working very hard to reduce panic in this situation. I think it's obvious to almost everyone that is the case. With in the last day though I've seen a turn towards some constructive behavior though which is encouraging but it's not enough. They were unable to muster enough criticism of the media to get beyond "if it bleeds it leads" and then latched on to a tiny little thing that would support their position that the media is not being irresponsible. We did not budge past that.
If I had managed to say a more neutral "The media is doing everything they can to make money off our panic and it's to the detriment of us all!" I give it a chance that would have gone better. However I think that is such a slight restatement of the position that it is equivalent since Trump is in fact the tool for causing panic. Because I see the statements as equivalent I'm going to practice a touch of self censorship and try to remember to keep that much detail out so I don't just turn off people and complicate this further.
This is a very simple mater of prioritization. Hold the president accountable but as you say no one was prepared for this. Trump has not yet failed entirely in every way though he has certainly failed in at least one specific way I clearly described in other comments. I personally hope that Trump does not fail in every single way and we suffer greatly for it but I don't think that's a universally held opinion. Until and probably still usefully after Trump does entirely and completely fail the media should be sending messages about how to protect ones self and others so frequently and so prominently that every single person either has seen the information and knows it first hand or if anyone anywhere asks about it multiple people around them know the answer and the answers are consistent because the same message of action is being pushed out.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by JoeMerchant on Sunday March 01 2020, @02:06PM
It's pretty clear from my newsfeed that they're pushing the panic button as fast and hard as they can.
Preparedness is good. There's plenty of things we waste our time and effort on that could be better spent on things like healthcare infrastructure. But, I swear, this is like trying to pump out fear of skin cancer and pushing for implementation of the associated mitigations based on a single solar flare.
🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday March 01 2020, @09:01PM (1 child)
Observe the reaction (rather the lack of) in India, Russia, Vietnam; a very lackluster one in Thailand and Malaysia; TOTAL ignore in Indonesia and Turkey. Do you really believe they could have the number of cases they report (three, two, sixteen; 42 and 29; total ZERO) when everyone around got much more; and do you think people there would not be noticing a thing if the virus was really as damaging as fearmongers claim?
(Score: 2) by janrinok on Monday March 02 2020, @08:40AM
Perhaps their populations don't spend as much time in the places that westerners do. How many Thais or Indonesians did you see on the ski slopes of N Italy this year? Perhaps Indians aren't flying around the world as much as westerners do. When your daily income just covers the cost of living, then perhaps air travel isn't a priority. Maybe they just think that they have the flu and are carrying on with their lives. Or even, maybe they don't caught up in the hype of TV or media as much as we do.
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Sunday March 01 2020, @02:25PM
What alternate universe did this fake news crossover from?
Nobody is that obtuse. How unsettled was society when W was re-elected? Gas prices through the roof, thousands of kids coming home missing limbs - or dead, the world hating U.S. nearly as much as they do today...
🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 2) by edIII on Sunday March 01 2020, @07:17AM (10 children)
That's not what there is to be panicked about. Nearly everyone agrees that the mortality rate is lower than the viruses that came before. I don't know if it's general knowledge, but most people seem to know that babies have the best chance, and its' the old and immune compromised that are getting hit the hardest. Most will live through it, and some might be entirely asymptomatic the whole time.
The virus isn't going to kill us, it isn't going to turn us into zombies.
What it WILL do is interrupt supply chains worldwide, because of how many people may get sick at the same time. It's in part economic panic, and it's not unreasonable. For many people right now, shit is going to be pretty bleak business wise for the next several quarters. That's current disruption.
This is global, so panic, is very much going to be a determination based on the country you are in. France I don't think would be a huge problem, because if you get sick their right now, both culture and socialized medicine provide for them to stay home in their own beds and to be visited by a doctor.
The US? There is a reason to be very concerned, and every reason to believe there could massive disruptions in worker productivity, and severe adverse impacts upon our health care system in a relatively short time period.
A few feet of water is nothing to panic about at all, and the drops from the rain are usually safe to ignore. It's when it all comes down at once in a Tsunami, that there is a problem.
You're level of panic here is probably going to be directly related to what level of sophisticated knowledge you have about our social service, health & human services, industrial and medical supply chains, and whether or not we have the government that could handle the problem appropriately, in an orderly and timely manner, that would leave us with nothing to be panicked about. I think we both know, that it will come down across political lines now, what level of panic you have. For those that don't believe in the current government, there is no amount of consolation, or drugs or hypnosis, that will give us faith to believe the Emperor can handle this. So practically, we need to deal with a population that has a very low level of confidence right now. That can, and does lead to panic in many cases.
I'm not sure there is somebody trying to cause global panic, but chaos is always profitable for some. It doesn't mean the chaos was caused by them though. This is most likely a virus we would need to deal with anyways, and I think events like this will be more common in the future. At least until we crack genetics and nano technology sufficiently to come up with all-cure. New viruses and resistant bacteria are a way of life until then.
Technically, lunchtime is at any moment. It's just a wave function.
(Score: 2) by janrinok on Sunday March 01 2020, @08:20AM
I think that you really mean that most of the world has socialized medicine, outside of the USA. It is certainly the case throughout Europe, Europeans can visit a hospital anywhere oin Europe and get treatment as if they were in their own country of birth. Much is true of Eastern Europe too, although the health care provided might not be of the top-tier standard that Americans seem content to have to pay for - or go without. Australia and NZ have excellent facilities too. Africa and the Middle East depends exactly where you are. Many capital and major cities have good facilities but travel too far from them and the standard can deteriorate quite significantly.
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Sunday March 01 2020, @02:31PM (5 children)
That's a disagreement of verb intensity: WILL != may.
Further, supply chain labor isn't exactly infungible, one Amazon delivery driver or warehouse packer calls in sick, it's not like you can't hire another one tomorrow. What's the duration of the illness? A couple of weeks? Financial markets that run their bets on fraction of a percent differential margins can panic, the rest of the world should CTFD.
🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 3, Insightful) by janrinok on Sunday March 01 2020, @03:16PM (2 children)
How do countries believe that they were ever in a position to defend themselves from military threats if our whole economy can be brought to its knees by a virus that has crippled one of the USA's potential enemies more than anyone else at the present time?
Perhaps we ought to learn to live together instead of squabbling over the planet's resources. Nah, where is the profit in that...?
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Sunday March 01 2020, @03:30PM (1 child)
Spanish Flu (1918) killed more people worldwide than WW-I and WW-II combined.
Noble thought, I believe it has been suggested before.
🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday March 01 2020, @03:41PM
> Noble thought, I believe it has been suggested before.
So do it already. Jeez you guys are IDIOTS!11!!
(Score: 2, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday March 01 2020, @11:29PM (1 child)
It's not "will", nor "may", but "shall continue to".
What? It's not the container shippers, truckers, and train folk who are the chokepoint. Those are few bodies, and others can delay vacation, pull overtime or get trained up.
It's production.
To understand, you need some background. Do you know what "thin manufacturing" and "the Toyota Way" are? If not look them up - they're currently the preferred method of business for companies with physical production.
I'll wait...
... ok done? Now you surely see why covid-19 is already disrupting worldwide production.
Citation: I work with two companies with tangible products. The R&D-phase robotics company is stalled on two critical HW branches due to parts which not only aren't here, but haven't yet been *made* and for which we don't have a schedule. The other, we do most of our manufacturing in a few scattered factories in China but then do our final QC and assembly in-house here so we can stamp "assembled in Canada" on it (and also so third shifters don't have the final puzzle pieces), and some of our products are going to be out of stock for weeks at this rate - we had enough shelf stock to last until about now, but some products we are having to tell people we can call them back once we're in stock. Ie. we're being hit by this disruption, right now, on our bottom line.
So not "will", nor "may", but "shall continue to" is the reality.
(Score: 2) by quietus on Monday March 02 2020, @04:34PM
The production line of the electrical Audi versions (based in Brussels) is going to be shutdown [teslarati.com] for at least 10 days -- supply shortages, one of which is for the tail lights.
(Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Monday March 02 2020, @01:47PM (2 children)
In other words, no cheap plastic shit from China for a while? Oh noes. No fresh apples from South America in the middle of March? How will we ever survive? No oil from the Middle East? Oh, look, the US is a net oil exporter these days.
We'll live. There's a silver lining in a global supply chain disruption, too, in that domestic production may get an opportunity to revive and reposition itself better when global chain resumes.
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: 2) by edIII on Monday March 02 2020, @07:50PM (1 child)
You really just don't fucking get it. The economic part is survivable. I survived 2008 with almost everything stolen from me by banks. I'm still here. I get your point.
This is about how many people will die, how many of us will be left without our parents, and whether or not we can withstand the onslaught against our current medical system.
It's pure fucking numbers dude. No politics, no economics, just numbers. Those numbers tell us, that under our conditions, we need to prepare for more than just economic disruption. We need to prepare for where we're going to store the bodies.
Technically, lunchtime is at any moment. It's just a wave function.
(Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Tuesday March 03 2020, @05:26AM
I do get it. Only a couple people out of a hundred will die from the thing, but that's small consolation for them and their loved ones. But since you're talking about numbers, correctly, a couple people out of a hundred dying leaves 90+ behind to do the burying and making arrangements.
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday March 01 2020, @11:12AM
12,000 vs. 2,000,000-5,000,000
(Score: 2) by legont on Sunday March 01 2020, @05:25PM (4 children)
We should not compare this one to a regular flu season. It is a new desease. Population does not have any immunity, no vaccine is available. Also, severity and death rate are a few times higher than flu's.
If we let it go, in a few years it may become a seasonal cold with death rate similar to flu, but the very first season may be very bad.
"Wealth is the relentless enemy of understanding" - John Kenneth Galbraith.
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Sunday March 01 2020, @06:43PM (3 children)
Agreed, and much of the precaution is warranted and not unusual, I seem to remember mid 2003 having similar travel restrictions to China for whatever was cooking back then.
However, our beloved media has spun this one (and so many similar things in the past) so hard that it's difficult to gauge appropriate individual response, and a large chunk of the population has reached such a level of fear monger fatigue that they are simply not going to respond at all. Meanwhile, there's a run on disposable facemasks even worse than during the Anthrax scares, fed by that other part of the population that's over-responding to the fear messaging.
Me, personally, I'm keeping hands-in-pockets more than usual when out shopping - I might even break with my normal tradition and use some hand sanitizer once in a while when I feel exposed. I doubt I'll be able to break my habit of rubbing my eyes, as such I do hope to simply get the dumb virus and get over it as quickly as possible. I'll do my best to stay out of public while I know I have it, too bad most other people won't.
🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 4, Informative) by legont on Sunday March 01 2020, @07:14PM (1 child)
I remember 2002 SARS well because I had a trip to Asia planned and I took it right in the middle of the outbreak. Perhaps I was younger but... I did check statistics and decided it was a reasonable risk. I don't see the current one this way.
"Wealth is the relentless enemy of understanding" - John Kenneth Galbraith.
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Sunday March 01 2020, @10:39PM
By April of 2003, local executives were cancelling trips to China over SARS - not sure how much else went on...
🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 2) by edIII on Monday March 02 2020, @07:59AM
It's not that bad or onerous to take sensible precautions here. The best and most practical way to handle this is cheap and easy. $4-$6 at a discount store.
- 70% alcohol (a regular sized bottle is plenty, no need to make a run on it). If you get 91%, it's just that much faster.
- Makeup cloth thingies. 200 count.
Substitute with medical prep wipes, a 400 count is $12.99. Or substitute with a hand sanitizer that has 70% alcohol as the active ingredient. I'm having some shipped in. Should last us weeks, and its costing less than $50.
Take just a moment, which is good for you anyways, and wipe down surfaces in your car and clean them. Clean the door handles on the inside and outside, and where you touch. A quick once over in your environments. Wouldn't kill you to wipe the keyboard down either, or your phone. Car, phone, house, and bedroom took me 20 minutes. Bonus, my stuff is clean, and there are no gunk buildup smudges on my light switches.
All I'm doing is a few easy things. Not touching my face with my fingers. I rub my eyes too a lot because of dryness, but I do it with the back of my hand or wrist, which I don't use on other surfaces. Pinky finger to open bathroom doors, 20 seconds to wash your hands with soap, touching things only when necessary, and cleaning my hands before I get back into the car. Lastly, cleaning my hands before I touch the front door to go back inside.
The effort isn't much at all, and quite frankly, if you live in a community spread city, they're quite a reasonable and practical response. Not overboard, not panicked, just pragmatic, cheap, effective, and simple. If everybody calmly did that for 10 days, and spent time cleaning their homes and workspaces, you just might beat the community spread. So pweeeety please consider it.
Sincerely, good luck and good health. To everyone.
Technically, lunchtime is at any moment. It's just a wave function.