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posted by Fnord666 on Tuesday March 17 2020, @11:52AM   Printer-friendly
from the sudden-impact dept.

A lot has already happened this year. SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2) which can cause COVID-19 (COronaVIrus Disease 2019) has been making headlines shortly after it was first reported. The first cases were reported to WHO (World Health Organization) on 2019-12-31. The virus spread. It began as an epidemic in China . The world watched apprehensively. Reports surfaced of cases in other countries and the the apprehension grew. For many folk, it turned to fear when it was upgraded to a pandemic: WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 - 11 March 2020: "We have therefore made the assessment that COVID-19 can be characterized as a pandemic."

We have seen increasing efforts to stem the spread of the disease. Efforts have run the gamut. Closing of borders. Cancellation of sporting events. Conferences cancelled. Churches and other places of worship also closed. Schools closed. Panic buying of household goods and supplies. Supply chain disruptions affecting manufacturers. Restaurant, bars, and other such establishments closed. Work-from-home policies established and enacted.

The changes have been many, widespread, and continuing.

Reading about all the ways that "other people" have been affected is one thing. It seems different, somehow, when it hits closer to home and affects us directly. With many of our usual social activities curtailed or cancelled, it is easy to begin isolating and lose perspective. SoylentNews arose from a troubled period (the SlashCott) and a community has formed from that challenging period.

How have you been affected? Have you been infected? Had a family member or friend who was? Helped neighbors who are struggling? Hunkering down and isolating? (In a basement is optional.) Are you suddenly working from home and finding it challenging to manage your time? Still working on site, but now have a faster commute due to all the other people staying home? Catching up on watching TV shows? Reading more SoylentNews? How has your life changed?

From a somewhat different perspective, how have others helped you to cope... and how have you been able to help others? One of the potential impacts of social distancing is isolation and depression. I count myself fortunate, indeed, to have served this site for over 6 years and for all the people I have gotten to know, here. For those who may not be aware, SoylentNews has its own IRC (Internet Relay Chat) server. Feel free to drop in to #Soylent and just say "Hi!"

Social distancing is permanent when you're dead. So, practice good hygiene and stay safe.

Previously (oldest first):
China Battles Coronavirus Outbreak: All the Latest Updates
2019-nCoV Coronavirus Story Roundup
Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Roundup
Coronavirus Roundup
Coronavirus Roundup (Feb. 17)
Roundup of Stories about the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus and COVID-19 Disease
COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 - CoronaVirus) Roundup
CoronaVirus (SARS-CoV-2) Roundup 2020-03-12
Working from Home: Lessons Learned Over 20 Years


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  • (Score: 2) by drussell on Wednesday March 18 2020, @09:34AM (3 children)

    by drussell (2678) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday March 18 2020, @09:34AM (#972690) Journal

    The recovered were infected weeks before the dead. Use the death count for people infected at the same time as those who are recovered, namely weeks back's.

    Weeks? What are you basing that on, do you have a citation?

    That is not what the data I have seen suggests.

    At most there seems to be a "delta?" of 7-8 days usually... I'll see if I can find a graph to put on pastebin or something to try to explain... You can easily see the typical delay because of the various waves of local infections, that's not mystery.

    All of the numbers will become more accurate with time, of course.

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  • (Score: 2) by FatPhil on Wednesday March 18 2020, @11:02PM (2 children)

    by FatPhil (863) <{pc-soylent} {at} {asdf.fi}> on Wednesday March 18 2020, @11:02PM (#972953) Homepage
    Please fill in the blanks in these 6 statements with some vague numbers:
    1/2/3) The recovered are typically declared such ___ days after detection/symptomaticity/infection.
    4/5/6) The dead are typically declared such ___ days after detection/symptomaticity/infection.
    If you have no idea about one, leave it blank.
    --
    Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people; the smallest discuss themselves
    • (Score: 2) by drussell on Friday March 20 2020, @03:20AM (1 child)

      by drussell (2678) Subscriber Badge on Friday March 20 2020, @03:20AM (#973398) Journal

      If I had access to raw patient case information rather than aggregate statistics, I could calculate all of those more precisely and consistently for you, but the data from the following preliminary studies agrees with my own empirical evidence and analysis graphs (the trends in recovered and deaths track closely) which you probably would dismiss anyway since I'm just some guy on the internet. :)

      Instead, here are some data points from actual published papers by real doctors and scientists....

      The Wang et al study (an admittedly small study of only 138 cases) suggests:
      The median durations from first symptoms to dyspnea, hospital admission, and ARDS were 5 days (interquartile range 1-10), 7 days (IQR, 4-8), and 8 days (IQR, 6-12), respectively
      The median time from onset of symptoms to ICU admission (not just hospital admission) is 10 days (IQR 6-12)
      For those discharged from hospital, the hospital stay was a median of 10 days with an IQR of 7-14 (vs 12 days median 12.8 mean duration in the Guan study of 1099 cases, so reasonably close agreement on hospital stay to discharge)

      The earlier CNHC study (preliminary data from 17 early cases) suggests that the median days from first symptom to death were 14 (range 6-41) days, and tended to be shorter among people of 70 year old or above (11.5 [range 6-19] days) than those with ages below 70 year old (20 [range 10-41] days

      The Lan study where they were looking to see how long patients still tested positive after meeting the criteria for hospital release or lifting of quarantine, the patients were initially considered "recovered" after 12-32 days, though it does not specify a median or IQR.

      In any case, my point is that while the duration of typical cases does vary widely, the approximate time between a "death" outcome and a "recovered" outcome is not vastly different, as you seem to suggest. They track very closely, and there is certainly not a multi-week delay in being declared a "recovered" outcome rather than "dead."

      https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044?guestAccessKey=f61bd430-07d8-4b86-a749-bec05bfffb65 [jamanetwork.com]
      https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032 [nejm.org]
      https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jmv.25689?af=R [wiley.com]
      https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762452 [jamanetwork.com]

      • (Score: 2) by FatPhil on Friday March 20 2020, @12:14PM

        by FatPhil (863) <{pc-soylent} {at} {asdf.fi}> on Friday March 20 2020, @12:14PM (#973455) Homepage
        That's interesting, thank you. The data I was basing my estimation on was that from countries with 1 case, which gives you *exact* recovery times for every patient, as you can check every one in, and every one out. Of course, any country will zero deaths/recoveries can give you a lower bound, and those with full recoveries can give you an average, but that requires better record keeping, singletons were trivial. Those intervals were very often over a month. This could be a difference in release criteria in different countries.
        --
        Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people; the smallest discuss themselves