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posted by Fnord666 on Tuesday March 24 2020, @04:54AM   Printer-friendly
from the lock-em-down dept.

Politicians won't admit it yet, but it's time to prepare—physically and psychologically—for a sudden stop to all life outside your home.

[...] Whether you are reading this in your living room in Vancouver, office in London, or on a subway in New York City, you need to think hard, and fast, about two crucial questions: Where, and with whom, do you want to spend the next six to 12 weeks of your life, hunkered down for the epidemic duration? And what can you do to make that place as safe as possible for yourself and those around you?

Your time to answer those questions is very short—a few days, at most. Airports will close, trains will shut down, gasoline supplies may dwindle, and roadblocks may be set up. Nations are closing their borders, and as the numbers of sick rise, towns, suburbs, even entire counties will try to shut the virus out by blocking travel. Wherever you decide to settle down this week is likely to be the place in which you will be stuck for the duration of your epidemic.

To appreciate what lies ahead for the United States, Canada, Mexico, and the United Kingdom, pay heed to Italy, France, and Germany. The United States, for example, is currently tracking exactly where Italy was about 10 days ago. France and Germany, which track two to five days ahead of the United States, are now revving up measures akin to those taken by Italy, including lockdowns on movement and social activity. In a matter of days, the United States will follow suit.

[...] Once tough location decisions have been made, the household must be readied for a long siege. While panic-buying has led to stockpiles of toilet paper and hand sanitizer, getting through eight months of confinement with others will require a great deal more, both physically and psychologically. This is especially true for households that span generations.

Long-term confinement that includes children undergoing remote schooling and adults trying to work requires designated spaces for each individual, a powerful Internet signal and Wi-Fi router, and a great deal of shared patience. Everybody in the household must understand how the coronavirus is spread, and what steps each should follow to eliminate their personal risk of passing infection to others in the home.

The virus is transmitted by droplets and fomites[*]—it isn't like measles, capable of drifting about in the air for hours. It dehydrates quickly if not inside water, mucus, or fomite droplets. The size of the droplets may be far below what the human eye can see, but they are gravity-sensitive, and will fall from an individual's mouth down, eventually, to the nearest lower surface—table, desk, floor. You do not need to clean upward.

However, a newly published study, backed by the National Institutes of Health, found that the virus survives in "aerosols for up to three hours, up to four hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to two to three days on plastic and stainless steel." This means an uncleaned surface can pose a risk to members of the household for a very long time—a doorknob, tabletop, kitchen counter or stainless steel utensil.

[*] Wikipedia entry on fomites:

any inanimate object that, when contaminated with or exposed to infectious agents (such as pathogenic bacteria, viruses or fungi), can transfer disease to a new host.

[...] In addition to objects in hospital settings, other common fomites for humans are cups, spoons, pencils, bath faucet handles, toilet flush levers, door knobs, light switches, handrails, elevator buttons, television remote controls, pens, touch screens, common-use phones, keyboards, and computer mice, coffeepot handles, countertops, and any other items that may be frequently touched by different people and infrequently cleaned.

Researchers have discovered that smooth (non-porous) surfaces like door knobs transmit bacteria and viruses better than porous materials like paper money because porous, especially fibrous, materials absorb and trap the contagion, making it harder to contract through simple touch. Nonetheless, fomites may include soiled clothes, towels, linens, handkerchiefs, and surgical dressings


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  • (Score: 2) by PiMuNu on Tuesday March 24 2020, @02:50PM (26 children)

    by PiMuNu (3823) on Tuesday March 24 2020, @02:50PM (#974994)

    > If 90% of the population has already been infected, that 90% can get back to business as usual

    More likely, 0.1 % of the population has already been infected. So lockdown.

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  • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Tuesday March 24 2020, @04:11PM (24 children)

    by JoeMerchant (3937) on Tuesday March 24 2020, @04:11PM (#975055)

    More likely, 0.1 % of the population has already been infected.

    When only 0.02% of the population has been tested, we're all just running around panicked on speculation.

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/testing-in-us.html [cdc.gov]

    Ordinary seasonal flu infects up to 50 million US citizens and kill up to 50,000.

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm [cdc.gov]

    --
    John Galt is a selfish crybaby [huffpost.com].
    • (Score: 3, Informative) by PiMuNu on Tuesday March 24 2020, @04:51PM (7 children)

      by PiMuNu (3823) on Tuesday March 24 2020, @04:51PM (#975094)

      > panicked on speculation
      > Ordinary seasonal flu infects up to 50 million US citizens and kill up to 50,000.

      No! There is good evidence that this is much more serious than influenza.

      Look at Italy for example. The health care system was overwhelmed by Coronavirus. 6,077 deaths, 3,204 ICU cases. It appears that the number of new cases has only been curtailed by implementing lockdown, with the peak number of new cases arising about two weeks after start of lockdown; without this measure the pandemic is likely to have been considerably worse.

      (The ICU provision in UK is about 5000 with similar population to Italy, I don't know the Italian equivalent number).

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy [wikipedia.org]

      Note this from the wikipedia article:
      > On 19 March the Army was deployed to the city of Bergamo, the worst hit Italian city by the coronavirus, as the local authorities can no longer process the number of dead residents.

      One could also look at China. They built two new hospitals. They cancelled christmas! (Well Chinese new year which is equivalent).

      • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Tuesday March 24 2020, @05:01PM (5 children)

        by JoeMerchant (3937) on Tuesday March 24 2020, @05:01PM (#975098)

        There is good evidence that this is much more serious than influenza.

        And, I agree with that. Overwhelming of the system is indeed a valid concern, and we should be implementing some form of social distancing controls.

        They cancelled christmas!

        And we closed Disney World. Appropriate, IMO.

        DOOM! DOOM! End of Days! Locked in your home for 8 months! That is beyond premature, and highly improbable, based on the available data.

        --
        John Galt is a selfish crybaby [huffpost.com].
        • (Score: 2) by MostCynical on Wednesday March 25 2020, @07:36AM (4 children)

          by MostCynical (2589) on Wednesday March 25 2020, @07:36AM (#975364) Journal
          --
          "I guess once you start doubting, there's no end to it." -Batou, Ghost in the Shell: Stand Alone Complex
          • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Wednesday March 25 2020, @02:18PM (3 children)

            by JoeMerchant (3937) on Wednesday March 25 2020, @02:18PM (#975462)

            At this point, everything published everywhere, including this post by me, is propaganda pushing the author and publishers' agendae.

            What I take away from the article you linked is:

            Strong coronavirus measures today should only last a few weeks

            not 8 months.

            --
            John Galt is a selfish crybaby [huffpost.com].
            • (Score: 2) by MostCynical on Thursday March 26 2020, @02:27AM (2 children)

              by MostCynical (2589) on Thursday March 26 2020, @02:27AM (#975693) Journal

              but also only if 80% of people isolate.

              if it is only 70%, it could go on until September, or beyond [smh.com.au]

              --
              "I guess once you start doubting, there's no end to it." -Batou, Ghost in the Shell: Stand Alone Complex
              • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Thursday March 26 2020, @01:54PM (1 child)

                by JoeMerchant (3937) on Thursday March 26 2020, @01:54PM (#975855)

                I believe the isolation will go on just about as long as it serves other political aims... sure, we're "saving lives," but that's far from the only thing going on now.

                --
                John Galt is a selfish crybaby [huffpost.com].
                • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday March 26 2020, @03:03PM

                  by Anonymous Coward on Thursday March 26 2020, @03:03PM (#975904)

                  The experiment is done in part to determine what the length of time is they can hold the people under house arrest on the basis of fear. It will take people with money and influence to put an end to it.

                  Landlords are just not being paid rent while businesses are shut down. Big finance has properties mortgaged and the proceeds invested elsewhere. If the value of the underlying assets drops, they'll be hit with margin calls.

                  Right now, the moneyed class is waiting for what bailouts the government may provide. With sustenance, they can keep the pot from boiling over in the near future. The resulting inflation hurts everybody, so it's just a cost of being in business to them.

                  The working class is also waiting for their government checks, but the speculated amounts on the order of one time payments of $1500 per adult won't last long. Eventually many of them that are now stuck in front of the TV cowering in fear and calling the police on their neighbors who are going to the park are going to have their bank accounts touch zero. That is the point the politicians will try to stay away from. People going on the streets, clamoring for a reopening of the economy, is antithetical to US social control doctrine.

                  Trump spoke out that "we cannot shut down the nation just because some people may get sick and die", and set an end day of Easter for the state of emergency. Yeah, politicians words don't mean much, but Trump is a businessman. He also has the power to make the decision.

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @09:56PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @09:56PM (#975218)

        Their officials said that to the media themselves.
        That by definition is more than number of deaths FROM coronavirus.
        When, at the same time, those with weak symptoms or asymptomatic are not tested at all, you can produce a Lovecraftian horror from any flu epidemic.
        You want realistic numbers, you look at Germany.

    • (Score: 4, Informative) by edIII on Tuesday March 24 2020, @09:52PM (15 children)

      by edIII (791) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday March 24 2020, @09:52PM (#975217)

      You're a real idiot comparing this to the flu. 50 million infected? How many still go to work for awhile? How many tough it out at home, then go back to work as early as possible? Those 50,000 dead were already on the way out. What percentage of that 50,000 is at an advanced age? How many of them required ventilators and ICU?

      If you want to compare it to the flu, then yeah, every flu season we're worried about overwhelming the medical system. Happens every year, the doctors and hospitals all panick due to lack of supplies and all the flu victims flooding the medical system past capacity. It's just so routine, we all forgot about it. Thank God, you're here to remind us amiright?

      Stop saying stupid fucking shit like comparing Corona to the flu.

      THIS IS NOT THE FUCKING FLU! Seriously, FFS, REPEAT AFTER ME, "THIS IS NOT THE FUCKING FLU"

      Every time one of you dipshits speaks it puts all of us in danger, because you refuse to acknowledge, THAT THIS IS NOT THE FUCKING FLU.

      Ohhh, last thing, before I forget, THIS AIN'T THE FUCKING FLU!

      --
      Technically, lunchtime is at any moment. It's just a wave function.
      • (Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @10:01PM (2 children)

        by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @10:01PM (#975220)

        No, you are a squealing pig. A stupid scared animal trying to scare others.

        • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @10:27PM (1 child)

          by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @10:27PM (#975228)

          For reasons of political hatred.

          GGP post was backed by the CDC, in other words The Science®. I guess The Science® doesn't matter if you can blame things on Trump.

          • (Score: 3, Insightful) by edIII on Tuesday March 24 2020, @11:09PM

            by edIII (791) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday March 24 2020, @11:09PM (#975244)

            BWAHAHAH

            The science my ass. There is nobody in scientific circles comparing this to the flu, in fact, they say don't compare it.

            My political hatred outweighs your science? LOL Really?

            Well, Trumpers sure know their medical science. Killing themselves because the Emperor claims fish medicine will work :)

            --
            Technically, lunchtime is at any moment. It's just a wave function.
      • (Score: 1, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @10:22PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @10:22PM (#975226)

        You're right it's not the flu. CDC says

        Total cases: 44,183
        Total deaths: 544

        (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html) for COVID-19, while

        max medical visits ~25 million
        max deaths: 59000

        (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm) for the seasonal flu. I quoted medical visits because total number infected is unsure due to lack of available testing.

      • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Tuesday March 24 2020, @10:53PM (9 children)

        by JoeMerchant (3937) on Tuesday March 24 2020, @10:53PM (#975236)

        Let's get real about numbers: those 50 million normal flu cases (out of a population of 350 million) only count those who stand up to be counted, they don't count me, because I never complain when I get the normal flu. Point being: flu gets a huge percentage of the population every year, 1/7 complain about it enough to be counted - how many really contract and spread the virus? Safely: more than 1/7 - 1/2 would not surprise me at all.

        COVID19 death rates are worse than the "regular" flu - yes, absolutely, I believe, understand, and want appropriate measures to be taken. However... with the reported 12,000+ confirmed cases in New York City, they're missing the larger picture: how many of the remaining 8 million residents have COVID19, or have already had it and gotten over it? 1% of 8 million will be ~80,000 NYC denziens who require significant medical intervention to avoid death from COVID19, and that will indeed overstress the healthcare system to tragic proportions - we are right to be trying to slow the spread, but wrong if we thinking the total number of infected in anywhere even within an order of magnitude of 12,000 in NYC alone - it is higher, much higher, and most of those people are either unaware they have it, or walking it off as they do the normal flu.

        Every time one of you dipshits speaks it puts all of us in danger

        You have me confused with the buffoon who ran for President as a joke and accidentally won. And... if we handle it like Mexico (in other words: just ignore it) 98% of us are not in danger, but if we keep jacking around like this is the end of days, far more than 2% of us could have serious problems as a result, perhaps even death. Medical care for non COVID19 related conditions is significantly compromised by the way we are handling it, and if we're not careful, we'll kill more people from other causes by overreaction to COVID19.

        --
        John Galt is a selfish crybaby [huffpost.com].
        • (Score: 2, Insightful) by edIII on Tuesday March 24 2020, @11:18PM (8 children)

          by edIII (791) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday March 24 2020, @11:18PM (#975249)

          I'm not confused about you. You're the one who keeps popping out the comparison to the flu. It's not the flu.

          Everybody needs to stop comparing it to the flu, because every argument regarding it, is about taking it less seriously. Especially, from the absolute joke of a president (who is illegitimate anyways), who keeps saying the exact same stupid shit.

          Everything is significantly compromised because of the way that we aren't handling it.

          Make your points, but stop comparing it to the flu. It's a comparison that is inaccurate, stupid, foolish, and dangerous under the current conditions. Just like going on and on about "cures" that don't exist yet, undereducated Trump supporters, and desperate and deadly measures.

          Trump is 100% responsible for that death in Arizona, and you and the others are 100% responsible for anyone not taking this seriously because you persist in comparing it to the flu. Which only serves to argue that this isn't as serious.

          Wake up dude. I've been watching the numbers too, and there hasn't been a flu season on record that has required this many ventilators. If it were truly an overreaction, we wouldn't see New York pressing the panic button regarding ventilators and ICU beds would we?

          This IS NOT THE FLU.

          --
          Technically, lunchtime is at any moment. It's just a wave function.
          • (Score: 4, Insightful) by arslan on Tuesday March 24 2020, @11:33PM (3 children)

            by arslan (3462) on Tuesday March 24 2020, @11:33PM (#975254)

            Yep. Another point that they don't compare, contagion factor. I can get into a train or cruise ship with someone with a flu and my chances of catching it are low, in fact even when a family member living in the same house there's easy precautions I can take and I typically avoid getting it. This virus, look at the cruise ships and the weddings and the plane flights and the churches where 1 sob turns up with it and how fast it spreads. We know there's enough idiots out there that just read tag lines and see "flu" and "corono" in the same sentence and starts having a backyard barbie with his neighbourhood invited.

            • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Wednesday March 25 2020, @01:10AM (2 children)

              by JoeMerchant (3937) on Wednesday March 25 2020, @01:10AM (#975280)

              in fact even when a family member living in the same house there's easy precautions I can take and I typically avoid getting it

              And yet, somehow, "normal" flu ends up infecting and affecting 1/7 U.S. citizens in "normal" years so badly that they seek medical attention for it. IDK about you and your circles, but around here, 4/5 people who catch something like the flu will "walk it off" and never present themselves to a M.D. to be counted as a flu infection case for the year.

              --
              John Galt is a selfish crybaby [huffpost.com].
              • (Score: 2) by arslan on Wednesday March 25 2020, @09:44PM (1 child)

                by arslan (3462) on Wednesday March 25 2020, @09:44PM (#975611)

                Sure, I'm not debating that you can walk off flu. All I'm saying is the contagiousness is a lot less. Do you hear of folks with flu in cruise ships or plane flights that infect mass amounts of people?

                • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Wednesday March 25 2020, @11:17PM

                  by JoeMerchant (3937) on Wednesday March 25 2020, @11:17PM (#975631)

                  Depends on the "flu" you're talking about - Hong Kong flu had symptoms very similar to Norovirus. I don't think Cruise ships were as big a thing back when Hong Kong flu went around, but Norovirus is a perennial cruise ship threat.

                  My point of 1/7 seeking medical care for the flu, and 4/5 not reporting is that flu sweeps most of the population every year.

                  I believe COVID19 is 10x as deadly, and has 10x worse symptoms in some people, but not that it's unusually transmissible - just that people who get it are 10x more likely to report having it.

                  --
                  John Galt is a selfish crybaby [huffpost.com].
          • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Wednesday March 25 2020, @01:05AM (3 children)

            by JoeMerchant (3937) on Wednesday March 25 2020, @01:05AM (#975278)

            It spreads like the flu, it even causes complications like the flu, just more severe and more often deadly.

            because every argument regarding it, is about taking it less seriously.

            There are some of us who wish it was taken more seriously, sooner, but believe that the present late reaction is taking things too far and beginning to enter counterproductive territory.

            What I see happening now is everybody's personal hidden agendas coming to the forefront. Beancounters at our company are flying the "teleconferencing not travel" banner (which I have been pushing for a decade to anyone who would listen, but people are finally listening now). Schoolboards and Universities are giddy with the prospect of increased tele-learning and what that would do for their budgets. Even city planners and others are falling over themselves at the potential positive impacts of people working from home and "let's push thing a little harder and longer to show what can be done" (again, a pet cause of mine for the past many years that has never gotten traction with the establishment.) I like a lot of what's being demonstrated in this overreaction to a slightly scary virus, but, let's be real about the threat that's driving this: 1% death rate, and with hundreds of thousands of deaths there are a few tragic cases to point out of young doctors, 18 year olds, etc, but, all in all, 1% is the number. It's bad. 3.5 million deaths in the US within 3 months would be horrific, let's not do that. Please, let's also not kill more than 3.5 million people by going overboard with our social distancing experiment - I'd really like the positive aspects of demonstrating tele-education and tele-work to not be spoiled by needless deaths caused by reactionary shutdown of normal societal functioning.

            Calls to mind the evacuation of Houston for hurricane Rita (same year Katrina hit N.O.), several dozen people were straight up killed in the evacuation, and in the end it turned out that they (the ones who died) didn't need to evacuate at all. For those of us who survived the evacuation, there was a tremendous amount of stress and financial expense that was similarly brought on by the "abundance of caution."

            --
            John Galt is a selfish crybaby [huffpost.com].
            • (Score: 2) by edIII on Wednesday March 25 2020, @04:24AM (2 children)

              by edIII (791) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday March 25 2020, @04:24AM (#975333)

              Well, none of the examples you link to are going to be anywhere near equivalent situations. This is more serious than any one hurricane, and if we were to compare, it would be against the entire United States.

              One thing is for certain, you can't accurately determine what is an abundance of caution vs an overreaction till after the fact. Given the consequences of inaction, abundance of caution is favored.

              I don't know what is up with this 8 months bullshit. If we actually enforced it hard enough, it could be as little as an additional month. People are not cooperating, because leadership is divided, and this country is so divided that we're actually arguing about how to react to a serious outbreak of disease. It's become political, which is so stupid, that we deserve our fate as a species. Internecine fighting and sociopathic behavior stopped us from using logic, reason, and science. The epitaph of our people.

              Determining if it is an overreaction isn't possible till we have adequate testing, which looks like its probably not coming at all. Which is all the more reason to double, and triple down on this shit hard for the next 4 weeks. Give us some time to obtain the resources we need, especially since 90% of the problem is the Emperor not cooperating.

              --
              Technically, lunchtime is at any moment. It's just a wave function.
              • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 25 2020, @05:33AM

                by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 25 2020, @05:33AM (#975343)

                It would be logical to get rid of you, then at least you couldn't transfer your viruses to the rest of us. Submit now.

              • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Wednesday March 25 2020, @02:13PM

                by JoeMerchant (3937) on Wednesday March 25 2020, @02:13PM (#975460)

                you can't accurately determine what is an abundance of caution vs an overreaction till after the fact.

                You can't accurately determine the line, but I can tell you what's going too far:

                1) House to house mandatory testing, followed by firebombing of any house in which a positive test was found.

                2) Mandatory testing, followed by forced incarceration of individuals who test positive at "camps" at a remote location "until further notice" to protect the rest of us.

                3) Shutdown of all road, rail, ship and air transport "until further notice".

                Those are pretty clear cut, over the line, aren't they?

                I haven't liked Florida's Republican Governors since forever, but our current one is talking a bit of sense on his moderation in the response. Panic and overreaction "just to be safe" is what you do for a zombie apocalypse, not for a virus that's only 10x more deadly than the usual flu.

                --
                John Galt is a selfish crybaby [huffpost.com].
      • (Score: 2) by Reziac on Wednesday March 25 2020, @03:08AM

        by Reziac (2489) on Wednesday March 25 2020, @03:08AM (#975305) Homepage

        And the reason it is not the fucking flu is because as yet, we have no herd immunity. If we don't slow it down, we get (as I put it above) a lifetime worth of deaths right up front. It will probably kill about the same total numbers regardless, over the next decade -- but the social and economic impact (not to mention the hospital load) is a lot less if those deaths can be spread out across a decade, instead of being crammed into the first couple years.

        So, slow it down and get ~30,000 fatal cases per year for all eternity, or let it run wild and get 300,000 dead per year for the next couple years, and STILL get 30,000 per year for all eternity (and that's just in the U.S.) because it's not going to just go away after the first assault.

        Choose wisely.

  • (Score: 2) by legont on Wednesday March 25 2020, @03:41AM

    by legont (4179) on Wednesday March 25 2020, @03:41AM (#975319)

    Currently about 6% of the US population is infected with seasonal bugs. I'd assume they were the one who went to drive through facility opened in NJ that closed in 4 hours. During this time they took 600 samples and about 10% were positive. I guess 5 days ago about 0.6% of tri state area were infected.

    --
    "Wealth is the relentless enemy of understanding" - John Kenneth Galbraith.