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posted by Fnord666 on Tuesday March 24 2020, @04:54AM   Printer-friendly
from the lock-em-down dept.

Politicians won't admit it yet, but it's time to prepare—physically and psychologically—for a sudden stop to all life outside your home.

[...] Whether you are reading this in your living room in Vancouver, office in London, or on a subway in New York City, you need to think hard, and fast, about two crucial questions: Where, and with whom, do you want to spend the next six to 12 weeks of your life, hunkered down for the epidemic duration? And what can you do to make that place as safe as possible for yourself and those around you?

Your time to answer those questions is very short—a few days, at most. Airports will close, trains will shut down, gasoline supplies may dwindle, and roadblocks may be set up. Nations are closing their borders, and as the numbers of sick rise, towns, suburbs, even entire counties will try to shut the virus out by blocking travel. Wherever you decide to settle down this week is likely to be the place in which you will be stuck for the duration of your epidemic.

To appreciate what lies ahead for the United States, Canada, Mexico, and the United Kingdom, pay heed to Italy, France, and Germany. The United States, for example, is currently tracking exactly where Italy was about 10 days ago. France and Germany, which track two to five days ahead of the United States, are now revving up measures akin to those taken by Italy, including lockdowns on movement and social activity. In a matter of days, the United States will follow suit.

[...] Once tough location decisions have been made, the household must be readied for a long siege. While panic-buying has led to stockpiles of toilet paper and hand sanitizer, getting through eight months of confinement with others will require a great deal more, both physically and psychologically. This is especially true for households that span generations.

Long-term confinement that includes children undergoing remote schooling and adults trying to work requires designated spaces for each individual, a powerful Internet signal and Wi-Fi router, and a great deal of shared patience. Everybody in the household must understand how the coronavirus is spread, and what steps each should follow to eliminate their personal risk of passing infection to others in the home.

The virus is transmitted by droplets and fomites[*]—it isn't like measles, capable of drifting about in the air for hours. It dehydrates quickly if not inside water, mucus, or fomite droplets. The size of the droplets may be far below what the human eye can see, but they are gravity-sensitive, and will fall from an individual's mouth down, eventually, to the nearest lower surface—table, desk, floor. You do not need to clean upward.

However, a newly published study, backed by the National Institutes of Health, found that the virus survives in "aerosols for up to three hours, up to four hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to two to three days on plastic and stainless steel." This means an uncleaned surface can pose a risk to members of the household for a very long time—a doorknob, tabletop, kitchen counter or stainless steel utensil.

[*] Wikipedia entry on fomites:

any inanimate object that, when contaminated with or exposed to infectious agents (such as pathogenic bacteria, viruses or fungi), can transfer disease to a new host.

[...] In addition to objects in hospital settings, other common fomites for humans are cups, spoons, pencils, bath faucet handles, toilet flush levers, door knobs, light switches, handrails, elevator buttons, television remote controls, pens, touch screens, common-use phones, keyboards, and computer mice, coffeepot handles, countertops, and any other items that may be frequently touched by different people and infrequently cleaned.

Researchers have discovered that smooth (non-porous) surfaces like door knobs transmit bacteria and viruses better than porous materials like paper money because porous, especially fibrous, materials absorb and trap the contagion, making it harder to contract through simple touch. Nonetheless, fomites may include soiled clothes, towels, linens, handkerchiefs, and surgical dressings


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  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday March 26 2020, @03:50AM (1 child)

    by Anonymous Coward on Thursday March 26 2020, @03:50AM (#975716)

    There is a French study that looks quite promising.

    If by study, you mean this one [mediterranee-infection.com], I would not call it "quite promising". It's full of methodological errors [sciencebasedmedicine.org] and likely would never pass peer review in ordinary times. They basically dropped all the patients who got sicker while undergoing the treatment, making their conclusions highly suspect. A closer look at their data shows that PCR was not done [twitter.com] for most of their controls to assess what their viral load really was. If it were my life on the line I'd not be waiting in line to try it unless I had no other options. Likely the only reason why this garbage is being as widely considered at all is because President Trump tweeted about it being a "game changer".

  • (Score: 2) by Hartree on Thursday March 26 2020, @08:18PM

    by Hartree (195) on Thursday March 26 2020, @08:18PM (#976067)

    I'd briefly read the report on the 20th, pointed there by a post from Columbia University Virologist Vince Raccaniello. This was before Trump commented on it, and before the critiques (with quite valid points, I might add) were made by Drosten and others, and I hadn't read about them as yet.

    As I noted above, it's a work in progress at this time and anyone deciding to take it on their own would be foolish. It's being followed up by other studies that are better designed and when those are ready, we'll have a much better idea if this is useful or a mirage.

    I stand by my advice that if someone has a serious case of COVID-19 and their doctor feels it's worth trying that they go along with that.

    I think that we can agree that the best thing for now is the politicians to shut up about things they know little about and let the medical research community work through it. The Arizona case showed that pols saying uninformed things can have tragic consequences.