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Politicians won't admit it yet, but it's time to prepare—physically and psychologically—for a sudden stop to all life outside your home.
[...] Whether you are reading this in your living room in Vancouver, office in London, or on a subway in New York City, you need to think hard, and fast, about two crucial questions: Where, and with whom, do you want to spend the next six to 12 weeks of your life, hunkered down for the epidemic duration? And what can you do to make that place as safe as possible for yourself and those around you?
Your time to answer those questions is very short—a few days, at most. Airports will close, trains will shut down, gasoline supplies may dwindle, and roadblocks may be set up. Nations are closing their borders, and as the numbers of sick rise, towns, suburbs, even entire counties will try to shut the virus out by blocking travel. Wherever you decide to settle down this week is likely to be the place in which you will be stuck for the duration of your epidemic.
To appreciate what lies ahead for the United States, Canada, Mexico, and the United Kingdom, pay heed to Italy, France, and Germany. The United States, for example, is currently tracking exactly where Italy was about 10 days ago. France and Germany, which track two to five days ahead of the United States, are now revving up measures akin to those taken by Italy, including lockdowns on movement and social activity. In a matter of days, the United States will follow suit.
[...] Once tough location decisions have been made, the household must be readied for a long siege. While panic-buying has led to stockpiles of toilet paper and hand sanitizer, getting through eight months of confinement with others will require a great deal more, both physically and psychologically. This is especially true for households that span generations.
Long-term confinement that includes children undergoing remote schooling and adults trying to work requires designated spaces for each individual, a powerful Internet signal and Wi-Fi router, and a great deal of shared patience. Everybody in the household must understand how the coronavirus is spread, and what steps each should follow to eliminate their personal risk of passing infection to others in the home.
The virus is transmitted by droplets and fomites[*]—it isn't like measles, capable of drifting about in the air for hours. It dehydrates quickly if not inside water, mucus, or fomite droplets. The size of the droplets may be far below what the human eye can see, but they are gravity-sensitive, and will fall from an individual's mouth down, eventually, to the nearest lower surface—table, desk, floor. You do not need to clean upward.
However, a newly published study, backed by the National Institutes of Health, found that the virus survives in "aerosols for up to three hours, up to four hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to two to three days on plastic and stainless steel." This means an uncleaned surface can pose a risk to members of the household for a very long time—a doorknob, tabletop, kitchen counter or stainless steel utensil.
[*] Wikipedia entry on fomites:
any inanimate object that, when contaminated with or exposed to infectious agents (such as pathogenic bacteria, viruses or fungi), can transfer disease to a new host.
[...] In addition to objects in hospital settings, other common fomites for humans are cups, spoons, pencils, bath faucet handles, toilet flush levers, door knobs, light switches, handrails, elevator buttons, television remote controls, pens, touch screens, common-use phones, keyboards, and computer mice, coffeepot handles, countertops, and any other items that may be frequently touched by different people and infrequently cleaned.
Researchers have discovered that smooth (non-porous) surfaces like door knobs transmit bacteria and viruses better than porous materials like paper money because porous, especially fibrous, materials absorb and trap the contagion, making it harder to contract through simple touch. Nonetheless, fomites may include soiled clothes, towels, linens, handkerchiefs, and surgical dressings
(Score: 5, Insightful) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday March 24 2020, @05:23AM (40 children)
Fucking city-dwellers and Europeans. Yall fuckers need to learn that there's a hell of a lot of America here other than the half dozen or so biggest cities. In this context that means that a lot of the counties in the nation have zero reported cases and quarantine is way premature and even bloody stupid for them.
Look, locking shit down is not being done to stop the virus. The virus is not going to be stopped, it is way too contagious and you are almost certainly going to get it no matter what you do. The whole staying at home thing is only to slow the rate of transmission down to where the hospitals can handle the small minority that need something other than cold medicine and a few days in bed. Which is all fine and good but locking down areas that aren't experiencing any cases at all makes zero sense. They actually need the virus to be there as soon as possible and start spreading. Dragging shit out slower than necessary to keep the medical folks from being overwhelmed just means your ass has to sit at home hemorrhaging money that much longer.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 5, Touché) by c0lo on Tuesday March 24 2020, @05:27AM (5 children)
Bloody stupid is the way of politics in USofA, color me unsurprised. (large grin)
https://www.youtube.com/@ProfSteveKeen https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford
(Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday March 24 2020, @05:50AM (4 children)
Fair point.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 1, Offtopic) by Runaway1956 on Tuesday March 24 2020, @06:32AM (3 children)
LMAO, I just looked at another page - the advertisement suggests that I contact a team of psychics to learn about my future. I guess someone can cash in on this shitfest!!
“I have become friends with many school shooters” - Tampon Tim Walz
(Score: 3, Funny) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday March 24 2020, @10:56AM (2 children)
Of course, it was a bioweapon released by the makers of Charmin from the start.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @02:48PM (1 child)
My ass is a temple and I treat it with respect. Charmin really does feel like wiping my ass with pillows. I approve this tactic.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @04:32PM
That's funny because I only wipe my ass on your pillow. What fabric softener do you use? It's the best.
(Score: 2) by RS3 on Tuesday March 24 2020, @05:55AM (12 children)
I agree with you but I think the real problem is time and timeline. We don't know who is infected until symptoms show and they've likely spread it. Much testing is the answer, and sorry but tracking the movements of people to find out who's been in contact with infected people.
Again, I agree with you, but by locking down large areas around cities we might stem the flow of people fleeing the locked-down cities. I know of people doing this now. Already have too many cityfolk sprawling out.
Sorry- nothing against cities nor city dwellers. It's just that sprawl is destroying the very thing they moved out for- open space. And now, just getting away from the lockdowns.
There's no question that govt. officials are having a little too much fun with us.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @06:37AM
>...sorry but tracking the movements of people to find out who's been in contact with infected people.
Fuck off.
(Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday March 24 2020, @11:03AM (10 children)
Missing the point. We don't just want it to be spread, we need it to be spread. If it doesn't hit the whole nation nearly as quick as we can handle the logistics of it, we're going to drag this out long enough that we're going to have to go for rounds 2, 3, etc... because it mutated a little bit and the folks who should have had immunity from the last round get hit again. That can not be allowed to happen; not for any reason. Hell, even just slowing it enough that the whole lockdown lasts six months would straight up destroy the economy.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 2) by c0lo on Tuesday March 24 2020, @11:30AM (6 children)
1. there's not enough data to show that recovering from a corona virus disease confers immunity or how long the immunity will last [npr.org]. Sure, it is likely, but not guaranteed
2. it is also likely US is past the point it can handle the logistic of it, you just don't know it yet**. Of course, this is because of the same "bloody stupid" way of politics in US, a thing that even if you know it you seem to fail to comprehend the full consequences of it.
---
** May $deity prove me wrong, it is horrible to think I might be right.
https://www.youtube.com/@ProfSteveKeen https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford
(Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday March 24 2020, @12:30PM (4 children)
1. No, but we damned well better hope there is. It's not especially deadly but it's contagious enough that we're not going to be able to stamp it out all over the world. You can't have permanent lockdown, so once we find out no immunity is conferred, you've no choice but to give up on containing it, put all your hopes on a vaccine, and just let a bunch of people die.
2. Your wild-assed guess is no more well-informed than my wild-assed guess though. We'll find out one way or another though.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 2) by c0lo on Tuesday March 24 2020, @12:48PM (2 children)
Neither the flu is. For flu, we have drugs that helps a good percentage of the population get over. We may discover the same for covid19 [sciencemag.org] soon enough (I hope - a vaccine may be 1.5 years in the future and at level of "logistics" the cyrrent health system can cope, more than 2-3 years of "flattening the curve" to get all through)
https://www.youtube.com/@ProfSteveKeen https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @02:06PM (1 child)
But what are takeup rates for the annual flu vaccine? My parents never take it, but I do. Not because I am concerned about my life, but I have better things to do than be sickened from something that could possibly be avoidable.
(Score: 2) by c0lo on Tuesday March 24 2020, @02:46PM
IDK.
What I learned [npr.org] is that 20-30% the common cold cases are produced by corona viruses too and you don't get immunity from them. Ooopsie
https://www.youtube.com/@ProfSteveKeen https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @08:10PM
How is a vaccine supposed to work if getting the disease don't confer immunity?
I mean, that is the premise of a vaccine!
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @04:02PM
That's not an automatic, given that one of the causes for the common cold is a coronavirus that has been among us for centuries, yet we have developed no immunity for it.
(Score: 2) by HiThere on Tuesday March 24 2020, @06:59PM
Not to worry. This isn't a disease that's reluctant to spread. Due to its long incubation period expect it to already have arrived at your location yesterday. And due to its ability to spread during the incubation period, you likely already have it. It's just be a couple of weeks before you notice.
Javascript is what you use to allow unknown third parties to run software you have no idea about on your computer.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @08:34PM (1 child)
The more people who get infected, the more mutations there will be. There's a real chance that a vaccine will be much harder if enough people get infected because that will give the virus enough chances to mutate that a vaccine for the current virus won't work on all variants of the virus. If we keep the transmission rate down, there's a better chance of being able to develop a working vaccine sooner.
In addition the the massive death rate from the "infect everyone" strategy, it might not even end the pandemic.
(Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Wednesday March 25 2020, @11:00AM
And if it takes a year and a half of keeping the world locked down to develop one, it's going to cause millions to die of starvation from the resulting global economic collapse. Actions have consequences, do at least try and predict the possible negative ones for any ideas you have when they're this important.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 5, Interesting) by Runaway1956 on Tuesday March 24 2020, @06:28AM
Gotta disagree on the zero counties. Every county around me has one or more reported cases. If you live near an interstate highway, you're screwed. People from all across the continent are driving within a couple miles of you, each and every day. The vectors today are as fast as interstate travel.
“I have become friends with many school shooters” - Tampon Tim Walz
(Score: 3, Insightful) by aim on Tuesday March 24 2020, @09:43AM (6 children)
Watch your language there.
Lock down now to make sure you won't get any cases. If you wait until there's a case, well, there'll be way more than one, and you're too late. Just a friendly hint from a European country that also started late with these measures.
(Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday March 24 2020, @11:06AM (5 children)
What, you mean so we can go back into lockdown a week after it's lifted because another set of cases popped up because nobody had built up any immunity? No. It needs to run its course and it needs to do so as quickly as we can handle it.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 3, Informative) by https on Tuesday March 24 2020, @12:47PM (4 children)
Once again, proof that you can always get stupider if you just put some effort in.
Your "as quickly as we can handle it" is a shitload slower than it's going to get, because your nation's leader deliberately buggered your nation's ability to respond in a timely fashion. For higher polling numbers.
Offended and laughing about it.
(Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday March 24 2020, @01:13PM (3 children)
Erm, how is that exactly? The tests are the only thing he even arguably fell down on. And tests don't do anything but spread the infection even more rapidly because you have to funnel healthy people through the exact same spots as sick people to test them.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @02:12PM
And what does the test tell us? Infected or not. Not sure if it can tell whether one was infected in the past but recovered. That may be useful to the statisticians and academics, but the only thing that really matters is getting medical care to people that need it. And the local hospital doesn't look more active the last few days. The paper isn't reporting any large scale treatment centers opening in the shuttered schools.
The federal bureaucracy may have its faults in this situation, but the actual impacts to our lives come from state and local governments.
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @07:16PM (1 child)
"The tests are the only thing he even arguably fell down on."
and here I was reading through comments thinking "Hey, buzzy is pretty on point today, no stupid leaking out his ears even!"
then you post that
counterpoint, Trump: "it is a Democrat hoax"
seems like that is a really big ball drop that has a lot of his fans acting dumber than usual, can we get past this weird "must defend Trump cause people hate him so much" bit? he is a shitty shitty human, and even worse president who has embezzled YOUR tax money, committed crimes, and has now bungled the response to a global pandemic beyond reason. stop. defending. that. dumbass. dirtbag.
(Score: 1, Flamebait) by The Mighty Buzzard on Wednesday March 25 2020, @11:02AM
That's not corona you got, just so you know. Just ordinary old TDS. No need for a test, I can diagnose it from here.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @12:20PM (4 children)
Yeah, but these counties with zero reported cases aren't really so isolated from the rest of the country. There are complex networks of supply chains that sustain these apparently isolated places and those originate from all over, and likely have already transmitted the virus. So those zero reported cases likely are already hiding large numbers of incubating cases that are already spreading unless something is done to stop them.
(Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday March 24 2020, @12:36PM (3 children)
Maybe, maybe not. Lockdown isn't there to keep the disease from spreading at all though or even to keep it to a trickle. Trying either of those would mean the nation being shut down for six months or more, which can not be allowed to happen. Not even if the alternative is just letting a bunch of people die.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @04:49PM (2 children)
So what you are saying is that you think it is better millions of people die (in the US) so you can keep the economy going? Because if you let the disease run it's course, millions will die.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @05:48PM
Even if it were millions: Let 400 million lives go on, while doing the best you can for those that get sick. Should 2 million of them die: Yes, I think that is acceptable. The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few.
We don't close down our streets just because there is a chance a kid runs out and gets killed by a car.
(Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Wednesday March 25 2020, @11:05AM
You suck at math but that's neither here nor there. Yes, I'd rather millions die of this disease than tens of millions die of starvation from economic collapse. Sometimes you don't get to pick a shiny, happy choice. Sometimes all your choices suck.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Tuesday March 24 2020, @01:58PM (7 children)
Which is why we have federal, state, and local administrations making judgement calls as to how to respond locally.
Due to our cruise-ship theme-park tourist based economy (and idiot residents who think this whole thing calls for a massive beach party), Florida is headed into pretty severe lock-down, particularly on the coasts. Meanwhile, some of the interior counties are kinda scratching their heads wondering what the fuss is all about... too bad the rural counties rely on the population centers for their competent Hospitals, food supplies, shipping of all kinds, etc.
🌻🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday March 24 2020, @03:09PM (2 children)
Dude, it's Florida. Half the population are like the meth'd out love children of Steve Erwin and Larry the Cable Guy. Incredibly dumb shit in Florida is only remarkable in its absence.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Tuesday March 24 2020, @04:04PM (1 child)
Yep, those folks tend to live on the fringes between the coastal civilization and the "rural heartland," in the cheap real-estate that nobody else wants to live in anymore. Their numbers are legion, and they make fun anecdotes from the police blotters, but most of us don't actually interact with them - ever.
🌻🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @06:24PM
Great, guess we know who'll avoid catching this thing...
(Score: 2) by dwilson on Tuesday March 24 2020, @04:33PM (3 children)
While the population centres rely on the rural areas for their food, oil, lumber, and most of the other natural resources. One cannot survive at a modern standard of living without the other.
It sure would be nice if Side A would turn a brain on occasionally, and stop pretending Side B is full of/run by/made up of nothing but uneducated, idiotic wrong-politics fools. And vice versa.
Human beings and thinking, though. So it'll never happen.
- D
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Tuesday March 24 2020, @04:48PM (2 children)
The raw materials may, indeed, come from the rural areas, but the people needed to supply those raw materials are getting fewer and fewer as time goes on. Most of the rural population is just as, if not more, useless to the rest of society as the urban drifters are.
🌻🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Wednesday March 25 2020, @12:21PM (1 child)
People in those rural areas know how to grow food, hunt, and build things. People in cities think everything comes from the magic sky fairy called Amazon.
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Wednesday March 25 2020, @02:40PM
Maybe so, but most of them don't actually know how to grow enough food to feed themselves, much less the rest of us. Similarly, they might be able to kill enough deer to keep their freezer stocked, but how many of them can process that meat (safely) themselves? If they were left on their own without hunting regulations, would the deer even last two seasons before the hunters started going hungry? If they follow hunting regulations, can they produce enough meat to feed more than 10% of their local population, much less the nearby cities?
My uncle built his own home in the far suburbs. Plenty of rural dwellers do work the trades, so do urban dwellers, not enough to hear my neighbor tell the story, but all it really takes to be a carpenter or a plumber, electrician, HVAC, etc. is a reasonable physical condition, intellect above the bottom quintile (some don't even have that) and the desire to learn the trade. It's not like our cities are built and maintained exclusively by rural tradesmen - it's more that the trades don't pay enough to compensate for the working conditions to attract more workers to them - who really enjoys crawling around in cramped fiberglass filled attics in the Florida summer?
The sky fairy is certainly more efficient for most things. When you can get it from the sky fairy for $30, delivered in a week or less, why spend 3 hours screwing around trying to make/build it yourself for $10 in component parts? Oftentimes, the sky fairy delivers finished goods for less than the raw materials would cost an individual buyer.
I'm growing 4 blueberry bushes in the yard, the bushes plus ground prep cost me about $80 to the sky fairy and local suppliers and at least 4 hours of labor. I'm going to spend 2 years tending them and pulling weeds from their patch before I get the first berries from them, and then they're probably only going to deliver a couple of quarts of blueberries a year for several years, if something tragic doesn't happen (like the greening disease that hit my 3 year old citrus trees).
There's no ROI in DIY.
🌻🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 1, Funny) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @06:03AM (10 children)
Comment below if you want AR15 cheap.
We also have AK47s.
TP is an acceptable payment.
(Score: 2) by janrinok on Tuesday March 24 2020, @09:01AM (9 children)
I am not interested in knowing who people are or where they live. My interest starts and stops at our servers.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @12:05PM (4 children)
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @02:18PM (3 children)
Maybe not, but recent experience has shown, that based on the governor's whim, you may be prevented from obtaining new supplies at any moment. I don't know how much TP an average family uses, but based on what I hear some people use large quantities of it per session.
The locals seem to have caught on that kitchen towels are an acceptable substitute. I got a three-pack on Wednesday and by now the shelves are empty. Next stop: napkins.
(Score: 2) by Thexalon on Tuesday March 24 2020, @04:19PM (2 children)
There are all sorts of ways of keeping your butt clean without TP though: Larger non-poisonous leaves (e.g. striped maple). Paper towels. junk mail. A bidet. Hop into the shower. Rags you clean out regularly. Wipe with your hand and wash your hand well. etc etc.
And that's the thing about the panic buying: What's going on is people being unable to conceive of living without certain products on hand. But people did and in many parts of the world still do live without them.
Another thing we're learning is that an awful lot of people have no clue how to cook, really. For instance, in my area everyone's been buying up all the marinara sauce they can, while leaving the crushed tomatoes untouched - which you can make into a marinara sauce by heating up and adding a few spices.
"Think of how stupid the average person is. Then realize half of 'em are stupider than that." - George Carlin
(Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Wednesday March 25 2020, @12:24PM (1 child)
Exactly. Consistently the stock that's still completely available in the grocery stores is fresh produce. Ahem, (putting on William Shatner voice), if...only there were some...way to make it...edible, maybe, by chopping it or...applying heat in some fashion...
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: 2) by Thexalon on Wednesday March 25 2020, @01:52PM
Of course, in a lot of cases it's perfectly edible raw too. Unless green salads stopped existing or something.
"Think of how stupid the average person is. Then realize half of 'em are stupider than that." - George Carlin
(Score: 3, Informative) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday March 24 2020, @12:37PM (3 children)
In an emergency you can use the patches out of your gun cleaning kit.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @03:00PM (2 children)
I like to hold the barrel between my butt cheeks and let the muzzle flash do the work. Never felt so clean!
(Score: 3, Funny) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday March 24 2020, @03:10PM
I been considering going over to Harbor Freight with a sharpie and blacking out the 'g' on all their angle grinders.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Wednesday March 25 2020, @12:25PM
You better time that for when you're not farting or you'll be in for a surprise!
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: 2) by tizan on Tuesday March 24 2020, @06:18AM (22 children)
Test a large fraction of the population and confine those tested positive
If we had 330 million tests today ...this would be over (mostly)...confine every body positive (assuming it is less than say 30% of the population) and let the others go to work as usual.
If 40% or more of the population is positive then it might be worthwhile to let go of any confinement...as a large fraction of the positives but can work people are your nurses, doctors, emts etc (as they were in the forefront of the contamination barrier)....confining a large fraction of them is no longer practical or wanted.
(Score: -1, Offtopic) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @06:20AM
Don't fuck with Korean Jesus.
He busy, with Korean shit.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @08:36AM (7 children)
Might as well wish if we didn't have this virus ....
(Score: 2) by driverless on Tuesday March 24 2020, @11:13AM (6 children)
While we're wishing, can I add "And a blowjob from Carmen Caliente"? If you're already asking for 330M tests then a single BJ added won't even be noticed by whoever's granting all these wishes.
(Score: 2) by c0lo on Tuesday March 24 2020, @11:38AM (5 children)
Ummm... aren't you forgetting that a negative test at now doesn't guarantee you won't need to be tested in the future again? Maybe multiple times even.
https://www.youtube.com/@ProfSteveKeen https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford
(Score: 3, Insightful) by driverless on Tuesday March 24 2020, @11:43AM (4 children)
I don't care about negative tests, where's my BJ from Carmen Caliente?
(Score: 2) by c0lo on Tuesday March 24 2020, @11:54AM (3 children)
Somewhere between those 660M testing kits. Feel free to search for it.
https://www.youtube.com/@ProfSteveKeen https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford
(Score: 2) by driverless on Tuesday March 24 2020, @11:57AM (2 children)
Damn, shoulda worded that wish more carefully. Someone wanna help me with all these testing kits?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @12:07PM
Not me. I'm only doing kesting tits.
(Score: 3, Funny) by fliptop on Tuesday March 24 2020, @01:35PM
I'm glad that's what you want help w/, and not the other request.
Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other.
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Tuesday March 24 2020, @02:02PM (12 children)
I think you are optimistic - does the test tell if you have already had COVID-19 6 weeks ago and recovered? If so, I think we'd be finding closer to 50% infection rates already.
🌻🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 2) by tizan on Tuesday March 24 2020, @06:11PM (2 children)
The best numbers we have is from South Korea where they have the largest per capita tests around the hotspot city of Daegu.. The death rate is around 1% so if your estimate if 50% of the population is already contaminated then we should have had a spike in death of around 1 to 1.5 million in the US due to flu like symptoms....but that is only around 14000 so far this flu season...this kind of numbers would have sent the alarms ringing at the CDC long ago.
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Tuesday March 24 2020, @06:35PM (1 child)
1% of what? At-risk subjects who self-presented for treatment? The self-presentation factor skews the data, significantly. The US at-risk population is less than 50 million, how much less? Not every person over 60 is at a 1% risk of death, or maybe they are, we'll know better when it all shakes out. We'd know sooner with a better funded CDC, but that's not our priority, so... now we need a $1T economic bailout.
By the way, increasing the CDC budget by 10x (+500M) for 100 years ($50B in total) would only have been 5% of the cost of the currently proposed bailout.
🌻🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Tuesday March 24 2020, @06:41PM
Apologies, Google lied to me (implicitly) - presented a table stating that the CDC annual budget for FY 2019 was $55M - which seemed low to me, but who knows after "austerity cutbacks"? - reading deeper, looking for the more sensible number, I come to a budget of ~$1.2B per year, which is still just 0.12% of the cost of the bailout, so - maybe they don't need a $500M funding increase, maybe they might use a $800M funding increase to more than double their effectiveness. Over 100 years (the rough elapsed time since the 1918 flu pandemic) that still would be just 8% of the cost of today's proposed $1T bailout.
🌻🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 1) by aebonyne on Tuesday March 24 2020, @08:39PM (8 children)
Not sure if other countries have the appropriate test, but the CDC says they don't have such a test yet [cdc.gov]:
Centralization breaks the internet.
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Tuesday March 24 2020, @10:40PM (7 children)
That's the more useful test for pandemic control planning, unfortunately I think we're testing directly for presence of the virus itself - which is useful for the individual diagnosis, but not as great for deciding when it's time to take the ostrich heads out of the sand.
🌻🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Wednesday March 25 2020, @11:10AM (6 children)
Dude, you don't need a test for an individual diagnosis, even if there were a cure. The doctors aren't going to treat you for anything else unless you show symptoms that don't match corona right now. Absolute certainty has never been a requirement for a diagnosis.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Wednesday March 25 2020, @02:22PM (5 children)
That's not our friends' (more distant acquaintances, really) experience in Tampa at the moment. 16 year old hospitalized with severe respiratory distress, doctors dragging feet waiting on corona test results. I don't know the details, but they're extremely distraught.
M.D.'s get the Buzz Lightyear indoctrination for 10 years before they're allowed to practice: "I'm Buzz Lightyear, I'm always sure."
🌻🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Wednesday March 25 2020, @04:02PM (4 children)
Reckon they should be pushing IV Corona Cure then? Oh, wait... See, zero difference at the moment if it's Corona or some other respiratory disease.
Yeah, they've got quite a lot of required credit hours of God classes.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Wednesday March 25 2020, @04:30PM (3 children)
That's not what the distraught mother is conveying to my wife - she seems to think her son's care is getting put on hold "wait and see while he gurgles and gasps" while they figure out what his COVID status is. The local news was asking for her contact info, last I heard...
🌻🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Wednesday March 25 2020, @09:57PM (2 children)
Yeah, hysterical mother. She can't control shit and is looking for someone to blame.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday March 26 2020, @02:19AM (1 child)
Possibly, but one would hope that anyone with lung issues gets treatment, regardless of whether any testing is or is not available.
We should all hope not to get sick in any form right now. Our governor has ordered dentists to stop practicing. The whole saga is apparently turning me into a Reaganite; it may be a long time before I will ever consider voting Democrat again.
(Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Thursday March 26 2020, @03:07AM
Yup, they don't care what kind of chest crud it is, they're going to treat you if they have the means. Hell, they legally have to.
Honestly, I'd rather get the crap now, get me some antibodies built up, and not have to worry about it anymore. Even being a smoker, it's not very likely to even land me in the hospital, much less kill me. Hell, I may already have it. Hard to tell when it's late March and you have allergies.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @08:04AM (2 children)
So this means the Hunt for Deplorables is on? Where do I go to get my tags? Some will have to make a sacrifice, as the Lt. Gov of Texas has said.
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @08:55AM
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @11:40AM
Yes. Just go and moron labia Runaway, I know you wanted it for a while.
(Score: 2) by SomeGuy on Tuesday March 24 2020, @12:26PM (2 children)
They need to consult whoever came up with the new catchy term "social distancing" to see if they can come up with a better euphemism than one that makes it sound like the country is one big jail.
(Score: 4, Informative) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday March 24 2020, @12:40PM
Social distancing doesn't even need to be brought up if you're quarantining yourself at your favorite fishing hole. Fishing that close someone else was already a good way to get your ass kicked.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @04:08PM
It's a shame you're still on imperial units, or you could've called it "Social 2.0", referring to the diameter of your isolation bubble in meters. But "Bubble 6.0" doesn't quite have the same ring to it...
(Score: 2) by Bot on Tuesday March 24 2020, @03:28PM
I suggest to buy stuff before the mobs seen storming malls in EU forms there too.
Here you have to declare your destination when outside home and they are going to clamp down further.
Markets are stocked but who knows what a prolonged trouble may do to the availability of goods. Already there will be a strike of fuel distributors (I guess they want people to fill up, because they basically will be forced to reopen if they persist)
I'd invest some time in preparing. Honestly I thought you people wouldn't be sitting on your ass after seeing what sitting on ass did to EU.
Account abandoned.
(Score: 2) by istartedi on Tuesday March 24 2020, @04:57PM
Hubei Province lockdown is scheduled to end in early April. It began January 23, so a 3 to 4 month lockdown is what you should expect in the most heavily affected areas. New York City in particular is going to have issues for a while. New York State is half our cases now. The county-level map of the USA's infections is roughly a map of major population centers and transit corridors.
Things won't really get bad unless Trump gets his wish to get Americans moving again in two weeks. That's like not finishing your course of antibiotics or chemo. You're just going to have to start them again at some point, and it'll be harder to treat when you do.
Right now we're flying blind (not enough testing) and running out of fuel (not enough medical supplies). We shouldn't be thinking about lifting restrictions until we fix that, but once we do the data seem to be encouraging, at least if you believe our death statistics.
Appended to the end of comments you post. Max: 120 chars.
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @05:16PM
Death is coming. Muahahahah...
(Score: 2) by PinkyGigglebrain on Tuesday March 24 2020, @06:01PM
How would a total lockdown affect the US elections in November?
Trump is already going on about how much power the emergency declaration has given him in a addition to what he had as PotUS. Think he will want to give that up?
What is that old saying?
"never let a good crisis go to waste"
"Beware those who would deny you Knowledge, For in their hearts they dream themselves your Master."
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @06:55PM (1 child)
South Korea was able to get the upper hand against the coronavirus without doing any lockdown.
It does, of course, require somewhat more competence from health authorities than has been seen so far.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/world/asia/coronavirus-south-korea-flatten-curve.html [nytimes.com]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @07:18PM
All areas should have large drive through testing stations, yet so far people can't even go to the hospital to get tested. With how badly they fucked up the response to this thing it almost feels intentional.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @08:14PM
where is the link from the first block of text? not just the site, the link to the story. thank you
(Score: 1) by slashnot on Tuesday March 24 2020, @08:49PM
What is the source of this wild speculation? The author of this submission makes some matter-of-fact statements with little backing:
"Airports will close, trains will shut down..." Is that just passenger trains, or freight trains too?
This will last "six to 12 weeks" and will happen in "a few days, at most." Who calculated these time frames and how?
The speculation is then followed up with a study from the NIH (other studies [jhu.edu] differ) and a needlessly long definition of fomites.
The last thing the general public needs right now is more fearmongering.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday April 15 2020, @05:05AM
The toilet paper panic buying reminds me of the stock market. Towards the beginning of the whole pandemic, way back when, I saw a youtube video of a hipster talking about how he is hoarding all this toilet paper to prepare. I laughed at the idea, thinking it was crazy and stupid. But it became a self fulfilling prophecy. By preparing for a shortage they are creating the very shortage that they are preparing for. The hipsters bought up all the toilet paper early on resulting in everyone panic buying more and more of it as it got restocked until pretty soon everyone was concerned they would be left out and not have any for a long time because everyone else is buying them up right away. If it weren't for the hipsters that started the whole thing early on there would have been no panic buying and no shortages. Similar things happen to stocks. Early people start buying and then everyone says 'oh look, I'm going to miss out' and they buy and then it creates a prolonged buying frenzy. Who would have thought that a toilet paper frenzy can look like a stock frenzy.