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posted by Fnord666 on Tuesday March 24 2020, @04:54AM   Printer-friendly
from the lock-em-down dept.

Politicians won't admit it yet, but it's time to prepare—physically and psychologically—for a sudden stop to all life outside your home.

[...] Whether you are reading this in your living room in Vancouver, office in London, or on a subway in New York City, you need to think hard, and fast, about two crucial questions: Where, and with whom, do you want to spend the next six to 12 weeks of your life, hunkered down for the epidemic duration? And what can you do to make that place as safe as possible for yourself and those around you?

Your time to answer those questions is very short—a few days, at most. Airports will close, trains will shut down, gasoline supplies may dwindle, and roadblocks may be set up. Nations are closing their borders, and as the numbers of sick rise, towns, suburbs, even entire counties will try to shut the virus out by blocking travel. Wherever you decide to settle down this week is likely to be the place in which you will be stuck for the duration of your epidemic.

To appreciate what lies ahead for the United States, Canada, Mexico, and the United Kingdom, pay heed to Italy, France, and Germany. The United States, for example, is currently tracking exactly where Italy was about 10 days ago. France and Germany, which track two to five days ahead of the United States, are now revving up measures akin to those taken by Italy, including lockdowns on movement and social activity. In a matter of days, the United States will follow suit.

[...] Once tough location decisions have been made, the household must be readied for a long siege. While panic-buying has led to stockpiles of toilet paper and hand sanitizer, getting through eight months of confinement with others will require a great deal more, both physically and psychologically. This is especially true for households that span generations.

Long-term confinement that includes children undergoing remote schooling and adults trying to work requires designated spaces for each individual, a powerful Internet signal and Wi-Fi router, and a great deal of shared patience. Everybody in the household must understand how the coronavirus is spread, and what steps each should follow to eliminate their personal risk of passing infection to others in the home.

The virus is transmitted by droplets and fomites[*]—it isn't like measles, capable of drifting about in the air for hours. It dehydrates quickly if not inside water, mucus, or fomite droplets. The size of the droplets may be far below what the human eye can see, but they are gravity-sensitive, and will fall from an individual's mouth down, eventually, to the nearest lower surface—table, desk, floor. You do not need to clean upward.

However, a newly published study, backed by the National Institutes of Health, found that the virus survives in "aerosols for up to three hours, up to four hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to two to three days on plastic and stainless steel." This means an uncleaned surface can pose a risk to members of the household for a very long time—a doorknob, tabletop, kitchen counter or stainless steel utensil.

[*] Wikipedia entry on fomites:

any inanimate object that, when contaminated with or exposed to infectious agents (such as pathogenic bacteria, viruses or fungi), can transfer disease to a new host.

[...] In addition to objects in hospital settings, other common fomites for humans are cups, spoons, pencils, bath faucet handles, toilet flush levers, door knobs, light switches, handrails, elevator buttons, television remote controls, pens, touch screens, common-use phones, keyboards, and computer mice, coffeepot handles, countertops, and any other items that may be frequently touched by different people and infrequently cleaned.

Researchers have discovered that smooth (non-porous) surfaces like door knobs transmit bacteria and viruses better than porous materials like paper money because porous, especially fibrous, materials absorb and trap the contagion, making it harder to contract through simple touch. Nonetheless, fomites may include soiled clothes, towels, linens, handkerchiefs, and surgical dressings


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  • (Score: 5, Insightful) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday March 24 2020, @05:23AM (40 children)

    The United States, for example, is currently tracking exactly where Italy was about 10 days ago.

    Fucking city-dwellers and Europeans. Yall fuckers need to learn that there's a hell of a lot of America here other than the half dozen or so biggest cities. In this context that means that a lot of the counties in the nation have zero reported cases and quarantine is way premature and even bloody stupid for them.

    Look, locking shit down is not being done to stop the virus. The virus is not going to be stopped, it is way too contagious and you are almost certainly going to get it no matter what you do. The whole staying at home thing is only to slow the rate of transmission down to where the hospitals can handle the small minority that need something other than cold medicine and a few days in bed. Which is all fine and good but locking down areas that aren't experiencing any cases at all makes zero sense. They actually need the virus to be there as soon as possible and start spreading. Dragging shit out slower than necessary to keep the medical folks from being overwhelmed just means your ass has to sit at home hemorrhaging money that much longer.

    --
    My rights don't end where your fear begins.
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  • (Score: 5, Touché) by c0lo on Tuesday March 24 2020, @05:27AM (5 children)

    by c0lo (156) on Tuesday March 24 2020, @05:27AM (#974795) Journal

    In this context that means that a lot of the counties in the nation have zero reported cases and quarantine is way premature and even bloody stupid for them.

    Bloody stupid is the way of politics in USofA, color me unsurprised. (large grin)

    --
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0
    • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday March 24 2020, @05:50AM (4 children)

      Fair point.

      --
      My rights don't end where your fear begins.
      • (Score: 1, Offtopic) by Runaway1956 on Tuesday March 24 2020, @06:32AM (3 children)

        by Runaway1956 (2926) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday March 24 2020, @06:32AM (#974816) Homepage Journal

        LMAO, I just looked at another page - the advertisement suggests that I contact a team of psychics to learn about my future. I guess someone can cash in on this shitfest!!

        --
        Don’t confuse the news with the truth.
        • (Score: 3, Funny) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday March 24 2020, @10:56AM (2 children)

          Of course, it was a bioweapon released by the makers of Charmin from the start.

          --
          My rights don't end where your fear begins.
          • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @02:48PM (1 child)

            by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @02:48PM (#974992)

            My ass is a temple and I treat it with respect. Charmin really does feel like wiping my ass with pillows. I approve this tactic.

            • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @04:32PM

              by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @04:32PM (#975076)

              That's funny because I only wipe my ass on your pillow. What fabric softener do you use? It's the best.

  • (Score: 2) by RS3 on Tuesday March 24 2020, @05:55AM (12 children)

    by RS3 (6367) on Tuesday March 24 2020, @05:55AM (#974801)

    I agree with you but I think the real problem is time and timeline. We don't know who is infected until symptoms show and they've likely spread it. Much testing is the answer, and sorry but tracking the movements of people to find out who's been in contact with infected people.

    Again, I agree with you, but by locking down large areas around cities we might stem the flow of people fleeing the locked-down cities. I know of people doing this now. Already have too many cityfolk sprawling out.

    Sorry- nothing against cities nor city dwellers. It's just that sprawl is destroying the very thing they moved out for- open space. And now, just getting away from the lockdowns.

    There's no question that govt. officials are having a little too much fun with us.

    --
    Experience enables you to recognize a mistake every time you repeat it.
    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @06:37AM

      by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @06:37AM (#974819)

      >...sorry but tracking the movements of people to find out who's been in contact with infected people.
      Fuck off.

    • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday March 24 2020, @11:03AM (10 children)

      Missing the point. We don't just want it to be spread, we need it to be spread. If it doesn't hit the whole nation nearly as quick as we can handle the logistics of it, we're going to drag this out long enough that we're going to have to go for rounds 2, 3, etc... because it mutated a little bit and the folks who should have had immunity from the last round get hit again. That can not be allowed to happen; not for any reason. Hell, even just slowing it enough that the whole lockdown lasts six months would straight up destroy the economy.

      --
      My rights don't end where your fear begins.
      • (Score: 2) by c0lo on Tuesday March 24 2020, @11:30AM (6 children)

        by c0lo (156) on Tuesday March 24 2020, @11:30AM (#974903) Journal

        If it doesn't hit the whole nation nearly as quick as we can handle the logistics of it

        1. there's not enough data to show that recovering from a corona virus disease confers immunity or how long the immunity will last [npr.org]. Sure, it is likely, but not guaranteed

        2. it is also likely US is past the point it can handle the logistic of it, you just don't know it yet**. Of course, this is because of the same "bloody stupid" way of politics in US, a thing that even if you know it you seem to fail to comprehend the full consequences of it.

        ---

        ** May $deity prove me wrong, it is horrible to think I might be right.

        --
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0
        • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday March 24 2020, @12:30PM (4 children)

          1. No, but we damned well better hope there is. It's not especially deadly but it's contagious enough that we're not going to be able to stamp it out all over the world. You can't have permanent lockdown, so once we find out no immunity is conferred, you've no choice but to give up on containing it, put all your hopes on a vaccine, and just let a bunch of people die.

          2. Your wild-assed guess is no more well-informed than my wild-assed guess though. We'll find out one way or another though.

          --
          My rights don't end where your fear begins.
          • (Score: 2) by c0lo on Tuesday March 24 2020, @12:48PM (2 children)

            by c0lo (156) on Tuesday March 24 2020, @12:48PM (#974932) Journal

            It's not especially deadly but it's contagious enough that we're not going to be able to stamp it out all over the world.

            Neither the flu is. For flu, we have drugs that helps a good percentage of the population get over. We may discover the same for covid19 [sciencemag.org] soon enough (I hope - a vaccine may be 1.5 years in the future and at level of "logistics" the cyrrent health system can cope, more than 2-3 years of "flattening the curve" to get all through)

            --
            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0
            • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @02:06PM (1 child)

              by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @02:06PM (#974966)

              But what are takeup rates for the annual flu vaccine? My parents never take it, but I do. Not because I am concerned about my life, but I have better things to do than be sickened from something that could possibly be avoidable.

              • (Score: 2) by c0lo on Tuesday March 24 2020, @02:46PM

                by c0lo (156) on Tuesday March 24 2020, @02:46PM (#974991) Journal

                But what are takeup rates for the annual flu vaccine?

                IDK.
                What I learned [npr.org] is that 20-30% the common cold cases are produced by corona viruses too and you don't get immunity from them. Ooopsie

                --
                https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0
          • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @08:10PM

            by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @08:10PM (#975173)

            How is a vaccine supposed to work if getting the disease don't confer immunity?

            I mean, that is the premise of a vaccine!

        • (Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @04:02PM

          by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @04:02PM (#975043)

          Sure, it is likely, but not guaranteed

          That's not an automatic, given that one of the causes for the common cold is a coronavirus that has been among us for centuries, yet we have developed no immunity for it.

      • (Score: 2) by HiThere on Tuesday March 24 2020, @06:59PM

        by HiThere (866) on Tuesday March 24 2020, @06:59PM (#975146) Journal

        Not to worry. This isn't a disease that's reluctant to spread. Due to its long incubation period expect it to already have arrived at your location yesterday. And due to its ability to spread during the incubation period, you likely already have it. It's just be a couple of weeks before you notice.

        --
        Javascript is what you use to allow unknown third parties to run software you have no idea about on your computer.
      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @08:34PM (1 child)

        by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @08:34PM (#975183)

        The more people who get infected, the more mutations there will be. There's a real chance that a vaccine will be much harder if enough people get infected because that will give the virus enough chances to mutate that a vaccine for the current virus won't work on all variants of the virus. If we keep the transmission rate down, there's a better chance of being able to develop a working vaccine sooner.

        In addition the the massive death rate from the "infect everyone" strategy, it might not even end the pandemic.

        • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Wednesday March 25 2020, @11:00AM

          And if it takes a year and a half of keeping the world locked down to develop one, it's going to cause millions to die of starvation from the resulting global economic collapse. Actions have consequences, do at least try and predict the possible negative ones for any ideas you have when they're this important.

          --
          My rights don't end where your fear begins.
  • (Score: 5, Interesting) by Runaway1956 on Tuesday March 24 2020, @06:28AM

    by Runaway1956 (2926) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday March 24 2020, @06:28AM (#974812) Homepage Journal

    Gotta disagree on the zero counties. Every county around me has one or more reported cases. If you live near an interstate highway, you're screwed. People from all across the continent are driving within a couple miles of you, each and every day. The vectors today are as fast as interstate travel.

    --
    Don’t confuse the news with the truth.
  • (Score: 3, Insightful) by aim on Tuesday March 24 2020, @09:43AM (6 children)

    by aim (6322) on Tuesday March 24 2020, @09:43AM (#974869)

    Watch your language there.

    Lock down now to make sure you won't get any cases. If you wait until there's a case, well, there'll be way more than one, and you're too late. Just a friendly hint from a European country that also started late with these measures.

    • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday March 24 2020, @11:06AM (5 children)

      What, you mean so we can go back into lockdown a week after it's lifted because another set of cases popped up because nobody had built up any immunity? No. It needs to run its course and it needs to do so as quickly as we can handle it.

      --
      My rights don't end where your fear begins.
      • (Score: 3, Informative) by https on Tuesday March 24 2020, @12:47PM (4 children)

        by https (5248) on Tuesday March 24 2020, @12:47PM (#974931) Journal

        Once again, proof that you can always get stupider if you just put some effort in.

        Your "as quickly as we can handle it" is a shitload slower than it's going to get, because your nation's leader deliberately buggered your nation's ability to respond in a timely fashion. For higher polling numbers.

        --
        Offended and laughing about it.
        • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday March 24 2020, @01:13PM (3 children)

          Erm, how is that exactly? The tests are the only thing he even arguably fell down on. And tests don't do anything but spread the infection even more rapidly because you have to funnel healthy people through the exact same spots as sick people to test them.

          --
          My rights don't end where your fear begins.
          • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @02:12PM

            by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @02:12PM (#974970)

            And what does the test tell us? Infected or not. Not sure if it can tell whether one was infected in the past but recovered. That may be useful to the statisticians and academics, but the only thing that really matters is getting medical care to people that need it. And the local hospital doesn't look more active the last few days. The paper isn't reporting any large scale treatment centers opening in the shuttered schools.

            The federal bureaucracy may have its faults in this situation, but the actual impacts to our lives come from state and local governments.

          • (Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @07:16PM (1 child)

            by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @07:16PM (#975153)

            "The tests are the only thing he even arguably fell down on."

            and here I was reading through comments thinking "Hey, buzzy is pretty on point today, no stupid leaking out his ears even!"

            then you post that

            counterpoint, Trump: "it is a Democrat hoax"

            seems like that is a really big ball drop that has a lot of his fans acting dumber than usual, can we get past this weird "must defend Trump cause people hate him so much" bit? he is a shitty shitty human, and even worse president who has embezzled YOUR tax money, committed crimes, and has now bungled the response to a global pandemic beyond reason. stop. defending. that. dumbass. dirtbag.

  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @12:20PM (4 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @12:20PM (#974921)

    Fucking city-dwellers and Europeans. Yall fuckers need to learn that there's a hell of a lot of America here other than the half dozen or so biggest cities. In this context that means that a lot of the counties in the nation have zero reported cases and quarantine is way premature and even bloody stupid for them.

    Yeah, but these counties with zero reported cases aren't really so isolated from the rest of the country. There are complex networks of supply chains that sustain these apparently isolated places and those originate from all over, and likely have already transmitted the virus. So those zero reported cases likely are already hiding large numbers of incubating cases that are already spreading unless something is done to stop them.

    • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday March 24 2020, @12:36PM (3 children)

      Maybe, maybe not. Lockdown isn't there to keep the disease from spreading at all though or even to keep it to a trickle. Trying either of those would mean the nation being shut down for six months or more, which can not be allowed to happen. Not even if the alternative is just letting a bunch of people die.

      --
      My rights don't end where your fear begins.
      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @04:49PM (2 children)

        by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @04:49PM (#975092)

        So what you are saying is that you think it is better millions of people die (in the US) so you can keep the economy going? Because if you let the disease run it's course, millions will die.

        • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @05:48PM

          by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @05:48PM (#975116)

          Even if it were millions: Let 400 million lives go on, while doing the best you can for those that get sick. Should 2 million of them die: Yes, I think that is acceptable. The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few.

          We don't close down our streets just because there is a chance a kid runs out and gets killed by a car.

        • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Wednesday March 25 2020, @11:05AM

          You suck at math but that's neither here nor there. Yes, I'd rather millions die of this disease than tens of millions die of starvation from economic collapse. Sometimes you don't get to pick a shiny, happy choice. Sometimes all your choices suck.

          --
          My rights don't end where your fear begins.
  • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Tuesday March 24 2020, @01:58PM (7 children)

    by JoeMerchant (3937) on Tuesday March 24 2020, @01:58PM (#974961)

    here's a hell of a lot of America here

    Which is why we have federal, state, and local administrations making judgement calls as to how to respond locally.

    Due to our cruise-ship theme-park tourist based economy (and idiot residents who think this whole thing calls for a massive beach party), Florida is headed into pretty severe lock-down, particularly on the coasts. Meanwhile, some of the interior counties are kinda scratching their heads wondering what the fuss is all about... too bad the rural counties rely on the population centers for their competent Hospitals, food supplies, shipping of all kinds, etc.

    --
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    • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday March 24 2020, @03:09PM (2 children)

      Dude, it's Florida. Half the population are like the meth'd out love children of Steve Erwin and Larry the Cable Guy. Incredibly dumb shit in Florida is only remarkable in its absence.

      --
      My rights don't end where your fear begins.
      • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Tuesday March 24 2020, @04:04PM (1 child)

        by JoeMerchant (3937) on Tuesday March 24 2020, @04:04PM (#975045)

        meth'd out love children of Steve Erwin and Larry the Cable Guy

        Yep, those folks tend to live on the fringes between the coastal civilization and the "rural heartland," in the cheap real-estate that nobody else wants to live in anymore. Their numbers are legion, and they make fun anecdotes from the police blotters, but most of us don't actually interact with them - ever.

        --
        Україна досі не є частиною Росії. https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/878601.html Слава Україні 🌻
        • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @06:24PM

          by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @06:24PM (#975131)

          [...] most of us don't actually interact with them - ever.

          Great, guess we know who'll avoid catching this thing...

    • (Score: 2) by dwilson on Tuesday March 24 2020, @04:33PM (3 children)

      by dwilson (2599) on Tuesday March 24 2020, @04:33PM (#975078)

      too bad the rural counties rely on the population centers for their competent Hospitals, food supplies, shipping of all kinds, etc.

      While the population centres rely on the rural areas for their food, oil, lumber, and most of the other natural resources. One cannot survive at a modern standard of living without the other.

      It sure would be nice if Side A would turn a brain on occasionally, and stop pretending Side B is full of/run by/made up of nothing but uneducated, idiotic wrong-politics fools. And vice versa.

      Human beings and thinking, though. So it'll never happen.

      --
      - D
      • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Tuesday March 24 2020, @04:48PM (2 children)

        by JoeMerchant (3937) on Tuesday March 24 2020, @04:48PM (#975091)

        The raw materials may, indeed, come from the rural areas, but the people needed to supply those raw materials are getting fewer and fewer as time goes on. Most of the rural population is just as, if not more, useless to the rest of society as the urban drifters are.

        --
        Україна досі не є частиною Росії. https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/878601.html Слава Україні 🌻
        • (Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Wednesday March 25 2020, @12:21PM (1 child)

          by Phoenix666 (552) on Wednesday March 25 2020, @12:21PM (#975418) Journal

          People in those rural areas know how to grow food, hunt, and build things. People in cities think everything comes from the magic sky fairy called Amazon.

          --
          Washington DC delenda est.
          • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Wednesday March 25 2020, @02:40PM

            by JoeMerchant (3937) on Wednesday March 25 2020, @02:40PM (#975471)

            People in those rural areas know how to grow food, hunt, and build things

            Maybe so, but most of them don't actually know how to grow enough food to feed themselves, much less the rest of us. Similarly, they might be able to kill enough deer to keep their freezer stocked, but how many of them can process that meat (safely) themselves? If they were left on their own without hunting regulations, would the deer even last two seasons before the hunters started going hungry? If they follow hunting regulations, can they produce enough meat to feed more than 10% of their local population, much less the nearby cities?

            My uncle built his own home in the far suburbs. Plenty of rural dwellers do work the trades, so do urban dwellers, not enough to hear my neighbor tell the story, but all it really takes to be a carpenter or a plumber, electrician, HVAC, etc. is a reasonable physical condition, intellect above the bottom quintile (some don't even have that) and the desire to learn the trade. It's not like our cities are built and maintained exclusively by rural tradesmen - it's more that the trades don't pay enough to compensate for the working conditions to attract more workers to them - who really enjoys crawling around in cramped fiberglass filled attics in the Florida summer?

            the magic sky fairy called Amazon.

            The sky fairy is certainly more efficient for most things. When you can get it from the sky fairy for $30, delivered in a week or less, why spend 3 hours screwing around trying to make/build it yourself for $10 in component parts? Oftentimes, the sky fairy delivers finished goods for less than the raw materials would cost an individual buyer.

            I'm growing 4 blueberry bushes in the yard, the bushes plus ground prep cost me about $80 to the sky fairy and local suppliers and at least 4 hours of labor. I'm going to spend 2 years tending them and pulling weeds from their patch before I get the first berries from them, and then they're probably only going to deliver a couple of quarts of blueberries a year for several years, if something tragic doesn't happen (like the greening disease that hit my 3 year old citrus trees).

            There's no ROI in DIY.

            --
            Україна досі не є частиною Росії. https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/878601.html Слава Україні 🌻