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posted by Fnord666 on Tuesday March 24 2020, @04:54AM   Printer-friendly
from the lock-em-down dept.

Politicians won't admit it yet, but it's time to prepare—physically and psychologically—for a sudden stop to all life outside your home.

[...] Whether you are reading this in your living room in Vancouver, office in London, or on a subway in New York City, you need to think hard, and fast, about two crucial questions: Where, and with whom, do you want to spend the next six to 12 weeks of your life, hunkered down for the epidemic duration? And what can you do to make that place as safe as possible for yourself and those around you?

Your time to answer those questions is very short—a few days, at most. Airports will close, trains will shut down, gasoline supplies may dwindle, and roadblocks may be set up. Nations are closing their borders, and as the numbers of sick rise, towns, suburbs, even entire counties will try to shut the virus out by blocking travel. Wherever you decide to settle down this week is likely to be the place in which you will be stuck for the duration of your epidemic.

To appreciate what lies ahead for the United States, Canada, Mexico, and the United Kingdom, pay heed to Italy, France, and Germany. The United States, for example, is currently tracking exactly where Italy was about 10 days ago. France and Germany, which track two to five days ahead of the United States, are now revving up measures akin to those taken by Italy, including lockdowns on movement and social activity. In a matter of days, the United States will follow suit.

[...] Once tough location decisions have been made, the household must be readied for a long siege. While panic-buying has led to stockpiles of toilet paper and hand sanitizer, getting through eight months of confinement with others will require a great deal more, both physically and psychologically. This is especially true for households that span generations.

Long-term confinement that includes children undergoing remote schooling and adults trying to work requires designated spaces for each individual, a powerful Internet signal and Wi-Fi router, and a great deal of shared patience. Everybody in the household must understand how the coronavirus is spread, and what steps each should follow to eliminate their personal risk of passing infection to others in the home.

The virus is transmitted by droplets and fomites[*]—it isn't like measles, capable of drifting about in the air for hours. It dehydrates quickly if not inside water, mucus, or fomite droplets. The size of the droplets may be far below what the human eye can see, but they are gravity-sensitive, and will fall from an individual's mouth down, eventually, to the nearest lower surface—table, desk, floor. You do not need to clean upward.

However, a newly published study, backed by the National Institutes of Health, found that the virus survives in "aerosols for up to three hours, up to four hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to two to three days on plastic and stainless steel." This means an uncleaned surface can pose a risk to members of the household for a very long time—a doorknob, tabletop, kitchen counter or stainless steel utensil.

[*] Wikipedia entry on fomites:

any inanimate object that, when contaminated with or exposed to infectious agents (such as pathogenic bacteria, viruses or fungi), can transfer disease to a new host.

[...] In addition to objects in hospital settings, other common fomites for humans are cups, spoons, pencils, bath faucet handles, toilet flush levers, door knobs, light switches, handrails, elevator buttons, television remote controls, pens, touch screens, common-use phones, keyboards, and computer mice, coffeepot handles, countertops, and any other items that may be frequently touched by different people and infrequently cleaned.

Researchers have discovered that smooth (non-porous) surfaces like door knobs transmit bacteria and viruses better than porous materials like paper money because porous, especially fibrous, materials absorb and trap the contagion, making it harder to contract through simple touch. Nonetheless, fomites may include soiled clothes, towels, linens, handkerchiefs, and surgical dressings


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  • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday March 24 2020, @11:03AM (10 children)

    Missing the point. We don't just want it to be spread, we need it to be spread. If it doesn't hit the whole nation nearly as quick as we can handle the logistics of it, we're going to drag this out long enough that we're going to have to go for rounds 2, 3, etc... because it mutated a little bit and the folks who should have had immunity from the last round get hit again. That can not be allowed to happen; not for any reason. Hell, even just slowing it enough that the whole lockdown lasts six months would straight up destroy the economy.

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  • (Score: 2) by c0lo on Tuesday March 24 2020, @11:30AM (6 children)

    by c0lo (156) on Tuesday March 24 2020, @11:30AM (#974903) Journal

    If it doesn't hit the whole nation nearly as quick as we can handle the logistics of it

    1. there's not enough data to show that recovering from a corona virus disease confers immunity or how long the immunity will last [npr.org]. Sure, it is likely, but not guaranteed

    2. it is also likely US is past the point it can handle the logistic of it, you just don't know it yet**. Of course, this is because of the same "bloody stupid" way of politics in US, a thing that even if you know it you seem to fail to comprehend the full consequences of it.

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    ** May $deity prove me wrong, it is horrible to think I might be right.

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    • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday March 24 2020, @12:30PM (4 children)

      1. No, but we damned well better hope there is. It's not especially deadly but it's contagious enough that we're not going to be able to stamp it out all over the world. You can't have permanent lockdown, so once we find out no immunity is conferred, you've no choice but to give up on containing it, put all your hopes on a vaccine, and just let a bunch of people die.

      2. Your wild-assed guess is no more well-informed than my wild-assed guess though. We'll find out one way or another though.

      --
      My rights don't end where your fear begins.
      • (Score: 2) by c0lo on Tuesday March 24 2020, @12:48PM (2 children)

        by c0lo (156) on Tuesday March 24 2020, @12:48PM (#974932) Journal

        It's not especially deadly but it's contagious enough that we're not going to be able to stamp it out all over the world.

        Neither the flu is. For flu, we have drugs that helps a good percentage of the population get over. We may discover the same for covid19 [sciencemag.org] soon enough (I hope - a vaccine may be 1.5 years in the future and at level of "logistics" the cyrrent health system can cope, more than 2-3 years of "flattening the curve" to get all through)

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        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0
        • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @02:06PM (1 child)

          by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @02:06PM (#974966)

          But what are takeup rates for the annual flu vaccine? My parents never take it, but I do. Not because I am concerned about my life, but I have better things to do than be sickened from something that could possibly be avoidable.

          • (Score: 2) by c0lo on Tuesday March 24 2020, @02:46PM

            by c0lo (156) on Tuesday March 24 2020, @02:46PM (#974991) Journal

            But what are takeup rates for the annual flu vaccine?

            IDK.
            What I learned [npr.org] is that 20-30% the common cold cases are produced by corona viruses too and you don't get immunity from them. Ooopsie

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            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0
      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @08:10PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @08:10PM (#975173)

        How is a vaccine supposed to work if getting the disease don't confer immunity?

        I mean, that is the premise of a vaccine!

    • (Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @04:02PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @04:02PM (#975043)

      Sure, it is likely, but not guaranteed

      That's not an automatic, given that one of the causes for the common cold is a coronavirus that has been among us for centuries, yet we have developed no immunity for it.

  • (Score: 2) by HiThere on Tuesday March 24 2020, @06:59PM

    by HiThere (866) on Tuesday March 24 2020, @06:59PM (#975146) Journal

    Not to worry. This isn't a disease that's reluctant to spread. Due to its long incubation period expect it to already have arrived at your location yesterday. And due to its ability to spread during the incubation period, you likely already have it. It's just be a couple of weeks before you notice.

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  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @08:34PM (1 child)

    by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 24 2020, @08:34PM (#975183)

    The more people who get infected, the more mutations there will be. There's a real chance that a vaccine will be much harder if enough people get infected because that will give the virus enough chances to mutate that a vaccine for the current virus won't work on all variants of the virus. If we keep the transmission rate down, there's a better chance of being able to develop a working vaccine sooner.

    In addition the the massive death rate from the "infect everyone" strategy, it might not even end the pandemic.

    • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Wednesday March 25 2020, @11:00AM

      And if it takes a year and a half of keeping the world locked down to develop one, it's going to cause millions to die of starvation from the resulting global economic collapse. Actions have consequences, do at least try and predict the possible negative ones for any ideas you have when they're this important.

      --
      My rights don't end where your fear begins.