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posted by martyb on Sunday May 17 2020, @09:02PM   Printer-friendly
from the the-answer,-my-friend,-is-blowin'-in-the-wind dept.

Arthur T Knackerbracket has found the following story:

After decades of research, meteorologists still have questions about how hurricanes develop. Now, Florida State University researchers have found that even the smallest changes in atmospheric conditions could trigger a hurricane, information that will help scientists understand the processes that lead to these devastating storms.

"The whole motivation for this paper was that we still don't have that universal theoretical understanding of exactly how tropical cyclones form, and to really be able to forecast that storm-by-storm, it would help us to have that more solidly taken care of," said Jacob Carstens, a doctoral student in the Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science.

The research by Carstens and Assistant Professor Allison Wing has been published in the Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems.

[...] The simulations started with mostly uniform conditions spread across the imaginary box where the model played out. Then, researchers added a tiny amount of random temperature fluctuations to kickstart the model and observed how the simulated clouds evolved.

Despite the random start to the simulation, the clouds didn't stay randomly arranged. They formed into clusters as the water vapor, thermal radiation and other factors interacted. As the clusters circulated through the simulated atmosphere, the researchers tracked when they formed hurricanes. They repeated the model at simulated latitudes between 0.1 degrees and 20 degrees north, representative of areas such as parts of western Africa, northern South America and the Caribbean. That range includes the latitudes where tropical cyclones typically form, along with latitudes very close to the equator where their formation is rare and less studied.

The scientists found that every simulation in latitudes between 10 and 20 degrees produced a major hurricane, even from the stable conditions under which they began the simulation. These came a few days after a vortex first emerged well above the surface and affected its surrounding environment.

Journal Reference
Jacob D. Carstens, Allison A. Wing. Tropical Cyclogenesis From Self‐Aggregated Convection in Numerical Simulations of Rotating Radiative‐Convective Equilibrium [open], Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (DOI: 10.1029/2019MS002020)

-- submitted from IRC


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  • (Score: 5, Funny) by mhajicek on Sunday May 17 2020, @09:14PM (8 children)

    by mhajicek (51) on Sunday May 17 2020, @09:14PM (#995464)

    Nuff said.

    Starting Score:    1  point
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    Total Score:   5  
  • (Score: -1, Troll) by Ethanol-fueled on Sunday May 17 2020, @09:22PM (1 child)

    by Ethanol-fueled (2792) on Sunday May 17 2020, @09:22PM (#995467) Homepage

    All it takes is one Rodney King beating or Ahrmad Rahbery shooting to trigger a storm of chimpouts in the Los Angeles and Chicago metropolitan areas. And the cops run when muhfuggas got guns, knowmsayin'?

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday May 17 2020, @11:06PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Sunday May 17 2020, @11:06PM (#995499)

      Herd behavior...
      Herd behavior is the behavior of individuals in a group acting collectively without centralized direction.

  • (Score: 1) by RandomFactor on Sunday May 17 2020, @10:26PM (1 child)

    by RandomFactor (3682) Subscriber Badge on Sunday May 17 2020, @10:26PM (#995484) Journal

    Goldblum was right.

    --
    В «Правде» нет известий, в «Известиях» нет правды
    • (Score: 3, Funny) by Gaaark on Monday May 18 2020, @12:23AM

      by Gaaark (41) on Monday May 18 2020, @12:23AM (#995529) Journal

      Life, uh uh uh... finds a way.

      --
      --- Please remind me if I haven't been civil to you: I'm channeling MDC. ---Gaaark 2.0 ---
  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday May 17 2020, @10:35PM (2 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Sunday May 17 2020, @10:35PM (#995487)

    Don't let those innocent looking butterflies fool you. They may look harmless but unbeknownst to you they are responsible for all sorts of catastrophes. We need to call the exterminator!!!!

    • (Score: 3, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday May 17 2020, @10:46PM (1 child)

      by Anonymous Coward on Sunday May 17 2020, @10:46PM (#995489)

      OK, I read the Wikipedia article on this.

      "The phrase refers to the idea that a butterfly's wings might create tiny changes in the atmosphere that may ultimately alter the path of a tornado or delay, accelerate or even prevent the occurrence of a tornado in another location."

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect [wikipedia.org]

      So it could reduce or increase the impact of disaster and it could even prevent or cause such a disaster. So I guess it is safe to say that the net effects probably cancel each other out. For each disaster those little critters have caused, in all likelihood, they have prevented another disaster.

      So, as a whole, the butterflies have been probably cleared of any net wrongdoing.

      We just need to prosecute the bad ones.

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday May 17 2020, @11:03PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Sunday May 17 2020, @11:03PM (#995497)

        Kill them all. Let God sort them out.

  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday May 18 2020, @02:21PM

    by Anonymous Coward on Monday May 18 2020, @02:21PM (#995784)

    Trump was right. [abc.net.au]