Stories
Slash Boxes
Comments

SoylentNews is people

posted by martyb on Sunday May 17 2020, @09:02PM   Printer-friendly
from the the-answer,-my-friend,-is-blowin'-in-the-wind dept.

Arthur T Knackerbracket has found the following story:

After decades of research, meteorologists still have questions about how hurricanes develop. Now, Florida State University researchers have found that even the smallest changes in atmospheric conditions could trigger a hurricane, information that will help scientists understand the processes that lead to these devastating storms.

"The whole motivation for this paper was that we still don't have that universal theoretical understanding of exactly how tropical cyclones form, and to really be able to forecast that storm-by-storm, it would help us to have that more solidly taken care of," said Jacob Carstens, a doctoral student in the Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science.

The research by Carstens and Assistant Professor Allison Wing has been published in the Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems.

[...] The simulations started with mostly uniform conditions spread across the imaginary box where the model played out. Then, researchers added a tiny amount of random temperature fluctuations to kickstart the model and observed how the simulated clouds evolved.

Despite the random start to the simulation, the clouds didn't stay randomly arranged. They formed into clusters as the water vapor, thermal radiation and other factors interacted. As the clusters circulated through the simulated atmosphere, the researchers tracked when they formed hurricanes. They repeated the model at simulated latitudes between 0.1 degrees and 20 degrees north, representative of areas such as parts of western Africa, northern South America and the Caribbean. That range includes the latitudes where tropical cyclones typically form, along with latitudes very close to the equator where their formation is rare and less studied.

The scientists found that every simulation in latitudes between 10 and 20 degrees produced a major hurricane, even from the stable conditions under which they began the simulation. These came a few days after a vortex first emerged well above the surface and affected its surrounding environment.

Journal Reference
Jacob D. Carstens, Allison A. Wing. Tropical Cyclogenesis From Self‐Aggregated Convection in Numerical Simulations of Rotating Radiative‐Convective Equilibrium [open], Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (DOI: 10.1029/2019MS002020)

-- submitted from IRC


Original Submission

 
This discussion has been archived. No new comments can be posted.
Display Options Threshold/Breakthrough Mark All as Read Mark All as Unread
The Fine Print: The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. We are not responsible for them in any way.
  • (Score: 2) by BK on Sunday May 17 2020, @10:49PM (1 child)

    by BK (4868) Subscriber Badge on Sunday May 17 2020, @10:49PM (#995491)

    I have to ask:

    Small disturbances, sure, but what about great ones?

    If millions of voices were to cry out in terror and be suddenly silenced, would that make a bigger hurricane?

    --
    ...but you HAVE heard of me.
    Starting Score:    1  point
    Karma-Bonus Modifier   +1  

    Total Score:   2  
  • (Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Monday May 18 2020, @12:40AM

    by Anonymous Coward on Monday May 18 2020, @12:40AM (#995541)

    Don't give them any ideas. Currently they all pray facing Mecca. If they all faced, say, 20 deg to the left of Mecca the vortex might be enough?