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A new study published as a joint effort by scientists at Cornell University, the University of Arizona, and the U.S. Geological Survey finds that the chances of the Southwest facing a “megadrought” are much higher than previously suspected.
According to the new study, “the chances of the southwestern United States experiencing a decade-long drought is at least 50 percent, and the chances of a ‘megadrought’ – one that lasts up to 35 years – ranges from 20 to 50 percent over the next century.” Not so crazy, according to Richard Seager, a climate scientist at Columbia University who has helped pen many studies of historical megadroughts: “By some measures the west has been in drought since 1998 so we might be approaching a megadrought classification!” he says. The study points to manmade global climate change as a possible cause for the drought, which would affect portions of California (where a drought is currently decimating farms), Arizona and New Mexico.
http://modernfarmer.com/2014/09/scientists-american-southwest-faces-megadrought/
(Score: 5, Funny) by PizzaRollPlinkett on Saturday September 06 2014, @10:10AM
You can get your name in the news, too, if you follow my handy guide to making predictions:
1. If you predict a specific event, don't predict a specific time.
2. If you predict a specific time, be vague about what will happen.
3. Make your prediction at least 5 years into the future. No one will remember it five weeks later, let alone in five years.
4. Give yourself plenty of room with time frames and percentages. Ranges like 20-50% are so broad they predict anything.
And don't worry about accuracy, because in today's 24/7 news cycle, no one will remember your prediction tomorrow.
(E-mail me if you want a pizza roll!)
(Score: 4, Funny) by khallow on Saturday September 06 2014, @01:46PM
It's not a real list if you don't include the following two rules:
A) Make lots of predictions.
B) Only remind people when you're right.
(Score: 2) by evilviper on Saturday September 06 2014, @02:52PM
C) Claim to be right 96% of the time, because one of the minor details in each of predictions happened to pan-out.
Hydrogen cyanide is a delicious and necessary part of the human diet.
(Score: 2) by frojack on Saturday September 06 2014, @05:36PM
D) Bonus points for mistaking cause and effect or failing to notice that global warming can't help but increase evaporation and rainfall.
No, you are mistaken. I've always had this sig.
(Score: 2) by evilviper on Saturday September 06 2014, @05:51PM
Not so sure about that last one... More rain, but not necessarily where you want it. TFA did say that Washington/Oregon will be less likely to experience drought, so they could be getting California's rain. Bit of a kick in the teeth for both sides... Seattle gets MORE RAIN while the deserts of California get less.
BUT... Increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere mean plants require less water, too, so that's something.
Hydrogen cyanide is a delicious and necessary part of the human diet.
(Score: 2) by frojack on Saturday September 06 2014, @09:29PM
Why would you discount out of hand the probability that warmers areas would get more rain?
After all, the Green Sahara Cycle [wikipedia.org] happens when it is WARMER than it is today, not when it is colder as many assume.
No, you are mistaken. I've always had this sig.
(Score: 2) by evilviper on Sunday September 07 2014, @07:44AM
First off, that's a very foolish thing to say... The California Deserts are already "warmer areas"... The record-setting warmest spots on Earth, in fact, and yet they are deserts because they get very little rain. So "warmer areas" do not automatically "get more rain". Isn't Seattle vs Las Vegas/Los Angeles proof enough of that?
Secondly, I did not dismiss the claim "out of hand". I pointed you to a source who did the research and made the claim... Specifically, it's in TFA:
"In computer models, while the southern portions of the western United States (California, Arizona, New Mexico) will likely face drought, the researchers show the chances for drought in the northwestern states (Washington, Montana, Idaho) may decrease."
http://www.news.cornell.edu/stories/2014/08/study-southwest-may-face-megadrought-within-century [cornell.edu]
While I don't know if the above claim is correct, it's completely plausible. Warming global temperatures means SOMEBODY will get more rain, but it doesn't means EVERYONE will get more rain. If those who already get lots of rain, just get more, while those who get little will get less, we'd be worse-off all-around.
The WP article claims you need 4% higher solar insolation for a Green Sahara. No amount of warming due to CO2 will do that for you.
Hydrogen cyanide is a delicious and necessary part of the human diet.
(Score: 2) by VLM on Sunday September 07 2014, @11:30AM
You forgot #5, Pizza, which is
5. Add a level of indirection
So don't predict drought in a desert, predict drought in a region, where that region is mostly desert.
I'm enjoying watching this because overall society wide, its a textbook example of uneducated human response to a crisis. All the stereotypes are out to play. Strong opinions about engineering problems they don't know about. Blame the other guy. Its not a real problem. Several others.
(Score: 2) by DeathMonkey on Monday September 08 2014, @06:42PM
You can provide a fact free rebuttal to a study, too, if you follow my handy guide to rebuttals:
1. If you rebut a specific study, don't rebut anything the study actually says.
2. If you rebut anything the studay actually says, be vague about what the flaws are.
3. Make your rebuttal require verification in 5 years. No one will remember it five weeks later, let alone in five years.
4. Give the authors zero room with time frames and percentages. After all, science must be 100% accurate at any resolution you demand. There is no such thing as error bars.
And don't worry about accuracy, because in today's 24/7 news cycle, no one will remember your rebuttal tomorrow.