SoylentNews is people
SoylentNews
A new study published as a joint effort by scientists at Cornell University, the University of Arizona, and the U.S. Geological Survey finds that the chances of the Southwest facing a “megadrought” are much higher than previously suspected.
According to the new study, “the chances of the southwestern United States experiencing a decade-long drought is at least 50 percent, and the chances of a ‘megadrought’ – one that lasts up to 35 years – ranges from 20 to 50 percent over the next century.” Not so crazy, according to Richard Seager, a climate scientist at Columbia University who has helped pen many studies of historical megadroughts: “By some measures the west has been in drought since 1998 so we might be approaching a megadrought classification!” he says. The study points to manmade global climate change as a possible cause for the drought, which would affect portions of California (where a drought is currently decimating farms), Arizona and New Mexico.
http://modernfarmer.com/2014/09/scientists-american-southwest-faces-megadrought/
(Score: 2) by frojack on Saturday September 06 2014, @09:29PM
Why would you discount out of hand the probability that warmers areas would get more rain?
After all, the Green Sahara Cycle [wikipedia.org] happens when it is WARMER than it is today, not when it is colder as many assume.
No, you are mistaken. I've always had this sig.
(Score: 2) by evilviper on Sunday September 07 2014, @07:44AM
First off, that's a very foolish thing to say... The California Deserts are already "warmer areas"... The record-setting warmest spots on Earth, in fact, and yet they are deserts because they get very little rain. So "warmer areas" do not automatically "get more rain". Isn't Seattle vs Las Vegas/Los Angeles proof enough of that?
Secondly, I did not dismiss the claim "out of hand". I pointed you to a source who did the research and made the claim... Specifically, it's in TFA:
"In computer models, while the southern portions of the western United States (California, Arizona, New Mexico) will likely face drought, the researchers show the chances for drought in the northwestern states (Washington, Montana, Idaho) may decrease."
http://www.news.cornell.edu/stories/2014/08/study-southwest-may-face-megadrought-within-century [cornell.edu]
While I don't know if the above claim is correct, it's completely plausible. Warming global temperatures means SOMEBODY will get more rain, but it doesn't means EVERYONE will get more rain. If those who already get lots of rain, just get more, while those who get little will get less, we'd be worse-off all-around.
The WP article claims you need 4% higher solar insolation for a Green Sahara. No amount of warming due to CO2 will do that for you.
Hydrogen cyanide is a delicious and necessary part of the human diet.