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Key Coronavirus Forecast Predicts Over 410,000 Total U.S. Deaths by Jan. 1: "Worst is Yet to Come"

posted by martyb on Saturday September 05 2020, @07:30PM   Printer-friendly
from the keep-your-distance-and-wear-your-mask dept.

upstart writes in with an IRC submission for aristarchus:

Key coronavirus forecast predicts over 410,000 total U.S. deaths by Jan. 1: 'The worst is yet to come':

In June, IHME predicted that the death toll in the U.S. would reach 200,000 by October, which appears to be on track.

[...] IHME previously projected 317,697 deaths by Dec. 1. The model now predicts that the daily death toll could rise to nearly 3,000 per day in December, up from over 800 per day now, according to Hopkins data.

[...] The most likely [IHME] scenario estimates that Covid-19 will kill 410,450 people in the U.S. by Jan. 1. The worst-case scenario, which assumes that restrictions and mask directives will ease, projects up to 620,028 people in the U.S. will die by then and the best-case scenario, which assumes universal masking, predicts that 288,380 people in the U.S. will die from Covid-19 in 2020.

[...] Despite the drop in new cases, the number of deaths caused by Covid-19 everyday in the U.S. has remained high, at nearly 1,000 new deaths per day, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

[The 9/11 terrorist attacks caused 2,977 deaths; the current US COVID-19 fatality rate is like having two 9/11 attacks each week. --Ed.]

Original Submission

 
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  • (Score: 4, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday September 05 2020, @07:45PM (16 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Saturday September 05 2020, @07:45PM (#1046931)

    Not sure if I can stomach much more of the fact denying idiocy the alt right loves to spew here, and this story is sure to bring them out.

    Still no apologies for saying it was a hoax, masks are dumb, social distancing is for scaredy cats, etc. It is bad for my mental health to try and push back against the stupids.

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  • (Score: -1, Flamebait) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday September 05 2020, @07:50PM (6 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Saturday September 05 2020, @07:50PM (#1046937)

    Your pants are on fire. Why is that?

  • (Score: 2, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday September 05 2020, @09:02PM (2 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Saturday September 05 2020, @09:02PM (#1046971)

    It is bad for my mental health to try and push back against the stupids.

    So, I gather that you are tired of "winning" now. So am I.

    • (Score: 5, Informative) by anubi on Sunday September 06 2020, @01:04AM (1 child)

      by anubi (2828) on Sunday September 06 2020, @01:04AM (#1047050) Journal

      Oh, how I understand.

      I have 40 years engineering experience.

      Working in aerospace.

      And am made subordinate to the Summer MBA.

      Who has no idea of what I have learned about getting the job done. A lot of which is dependent on tools that have taken me decades, and close association wi the author of those tools, to master.

      All gone when the MBA deprives me from using these tools, ranks me for having a "bad attitude", when he does so, then the MBA uses that as a justification for termination.

      Been there, done that, just give me my welfare check.

      Actually innovating and building stuff was fun while it lasted, but times have changed. That's China's job now. We do not do that anymore.

      As a nation, we have outgrown our need to be self sufficient, and only need to maintain a military sufficient to deal with nations that can't pay
      their debts.

      We have become a nation of bankers, of merchants, parasitic to everyone else on this planet.

      --
      "Prove all things; hold fast that which is good." [KJV: I Thessalonians 5:21]

      • (Score: 4, Insightful) by bzipitidoo on Sunday September 06 2020, @02:32AM

        by bzipitidoo (4388) Subscriber Badge on Sunday September 06 2020, @02:32AM (#1047071) Journal

        Similar experience here. Worked as a defense contractor. Had to deal with military types who are wont to think any obstacle can be overcome if you just put in enough effort. Tell them something can't be done, and they'll accuse you of being lazy or unwilling. Are you a quitter? A wimp? You could do it if you really wanted to, because you're a super genius. Why don't you want to do it? Why do you hate America? That guy over there says his company can do it. If you won't do it, we'll fire you and hire them.

        The last defense project I was on was a total train wreck. It ended my brief career as a defense contractor, as if I had been an officer on a ship that suffered a collision. Not that I tried very hard to find other work in that business. Industry is of course too often just a different flavor of dysfunction.

  • (Score: 1) by HammeredGlass on Sunday September 06 2020, @12:52PM (5 children)

    by HammeredGlass (12241) on Sunday September 06 2020, @12:52PM (#1047161)

    Masks are dumb: https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/04/commentary-masks-all-covid-19-not-based-sound-data [umn.edu]

    Social distancing is for scaredy cats: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-case-against-covid-tests-for-the-young-and-healthy-11599151722 [wsj.com]

    "Sweden was the only major Western country that kept schools open for kids 15 and younger throughout the pandemic, with no masks or mass testing. How did it turn out? Zero Covid-19 deaths among 1.8 million children attending day care or school. Teachers didn’t have an excess infection risk compared with the average of other professions."

    "Israeli schools reopened in May, leading to a few outbreaks. But no child was hospitalized or died. An analysis of cellphone mobility data shows that in the weeks leading up to the school opening, Israel had all but returned to prepandemic activity. The Israeli school outbreak was more likely due to community transmission rather than opening classrooms."

    authors of that article--> Dr. Bhattacharya, a physician and economist, is a professor at Stanford Medical School. Mr. Kulldorff, a biostatistician, is a professor at Harvard Medical School.

    • (Score: 2) by Mykl on Monday September 07 2020, @02:12AM (4 children)

      by Mykl (1112) on Monday September 07 2020, @02:12AM (#1047383)

      Nice cherry-picking.

      • We already know that the death rate for children is near zero in other countries, so it's not remarkable that few Swedish kids died
      • The teachers showed about the same level of infection as other professions because Sweden was not locked down and so other professions were being infected at alarming rates too
      • Infected kids, while not dying themselves, are going home to parents and grandparents and infecting them. The grandparents are the ones that are dying in droves, infected by their own family members

      • (Score: 2) by Grishnakh on Monday September 07 2020, @02:48AM

        by Grishnakh (2831) on Monday September 07 2020, @02:48AM (#1047394)

        What's more, Sweden has one of the highest death rates in Europe, worse when considering it doesn't have so many old people like Italy. The US only exceeded Sweden's death rate within the last week.

        It's really weird how people like the GP keep harping about the death rates of schoolkids being so low. No shit, sherlock. Everyone knows Covid mortality for young people is very low. Do these idiots think that all these kids are in boarding schools or something, and that they never see older family members?

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday September 07 2020, @05:04AM (2 children)

        by Anonymous Coward on Monday September 07 2020, @05:04AM (#1047438)

        The grandparents are the ones that are dying in droves

        Yeah, I may have heard of the great Swedish grandparent die-off, they've all gone extinct.

        Actually I didn't. About 6000 people overall have died from Covid according to their count. You probably could fit them in a small community park for an idea of scale.

        • (Score: 2) by Mykl on Monday September 07 2020, @05:44AM

          by Mykl (1112) on Monday September 07 2020, @05:44AM (#1047455)

          Sweden's death rate is the 8th highest in the world by population [statista.com], yet their population density of 25 people per square kilometre is 198th in the world [wikipedia.org].

          For such a low density population to be 8th highest in deaths should tell you just how badly their current strategy is performing.

        • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday September 07 2020, @07:13AM

          by Anonymous Coward on Monday September 07 2020, @07:13AM (#1047478)

          Your absolute statistics is absolutely awe inspiring - where can I subscribe to your newsletter comrade?