SoylentNews is people
SoylentNews
from the keep-your-distance-and-wear-your-mask dept.
In June, IHME predicted that the death toll in the U.S. would reach 200,000 by October, which appears to be on track.
[...] IHME previously projected 317,697 deaths by Dec. 1. The model now predicts that the daily death toll could rise to nearly 3,000 per day in December, up from over 800 per day now, according to Hopkins data.
[...] The most likely [IHME] scenario estimates that Covid-19 will kill 410,450 people in the U.S. by Jan. 1. The worst-case scenario, which assumes that restrictions and mask directives will ease, projects up to 620,028 people in the U.S. will die by then and the best-case scenario, which assumes universal masking, predicts that 288,380 people in the U.S. will die from Covid-19 in 2020.
[...] Despite the drop in new cases, the number of deaths caused by Covid-19 everyday in the U.S. has remained high, at nearly 1,000 new deaths per day, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
[The 9/11 terrorist attacks caused 2,977 deaths; the current US COVID-19 fatality rate is like having two 9/11 attacks each week. --Ed.]
(Score: 0, Disagree) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday September 05 2020, @08:49PM (21 children)
At 410k deaths, the count would have to more than double from the current official figures, that would be about 1100 qualifying deaths per day.
According to the CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/heartdisease/facts.htm), 2300 people die of heart disease per day.
So work on a cure, but let us get the fuck back to work.
(Score: 2, Funny) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday September 05 2020, @09:15PM
The overwhelming vast majority of us never stopped working. Now off to Ark-B with you. You have an urgent meeting with the sun.
(Score: 1, Funny) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday September 05 2020, @09:18PM (14 children)
Indeed. The first year of my life was under Martial Law. I don't remember it, and I don't know if it affected me. My son is turing 11 months in a few days. I hope this has not affected him, but it sure as fuck affected me and my extended family.
My brother and his wife are now seperated, and he is living with me and my wife. My wife works in operations for an insurance company, needless to say she has been working extra long days for months now. My in-laws live in a senior housing, so their whole building is closed to visitors. My wife and I have not had a break from the kids since this started. I can only imagine what other families are going through.
Fuck China!
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday September 05 2020, @09:53PM (1 child)
Boring start but strong finish +1 would read again
(Score: 2) by PartTimeZombie on Sunday September 06 2020, @10:09PM
Meh. I thought it was whiney. Imagine needing a break from your own children.
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday September 05 2020, @09:55PM (1 child)
Where were you under Marital Law in the first year of your life? What are you talking about? And who cares about your wife's job and that your looser brother is living with you? What are you trying to say, AC?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday September 07 2020, @01:05AM
I don't think it matters very much whether he was under martial law for his first year on earth. As an infant, martial law had zero meaning to him. Mom, Dad, and other caretakers may have been inconvenienced in some way by martial law, but the infant was obviously fed and cared for, despite martial law.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday September 05 2020, @10:10PM (9 children)
China may have been the source, but your troubles are being caused by your state and local chiefs. They have asserted they have full power to shut down life in their jurisdictions, and Trump can't tell them anything.
(Score: 1, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 06 2020, @04:36AM (8 children)
And they are right. All the complaints about Trump are a distraction from the fact that it is a State responsibility. Trump has no authority to order lock-downs or re-openings. As much as anyone does have that authority it is State Governors / State Legislatures.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 06 2020, @04:48AM (3 children)
One lever of control could have been federal control over interstate commerce, but Trump decided not to push that angle.
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 06 2020, @06:24AM (2 children)
Oh, yes, let's abuse the Commerce Clause some more. Unlimited power for Emperor Trump sounds great.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 06 2020, @09:44AM
Compared to the governors abusing their Enabling Laws to ignore the legislature, Trump's abuse may have been better.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 08 2020, @03:15PM
This might actually be a good time to do just that. In the current climate of Orange Man Bad the SCOTUS are more likely to reject such an argument than they have been for a long time. Precedent setting decisions that limit the commerce clause are a good thing.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 06 2020, @08:16AM (3 children)
Then why did Trump claim he had the authority to force governors to reopen churches [nbcnews.com]?
Even if Trump has no legal authority to force states to act in a particular way, he has the ability to provide leadership and guidance to coordinate responses between states. He has the ability to distribute federal resources to states to they have the necessary resources to respond to crises. Trump failed miserably on both counts.
(Score: 1, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 06 2020, @09:41AM (2 children)
Because religious freedom is covered by the first amendment to the constitution, the highest level of protection something can get, defined at federal level and extended to the states?
The democrat governors wanted to torpedo his reelection; IMO he underplayed his hand back in April when the governors told him to fuck off and was missing in action for two months. The governors pressed on and gave their blessings to the riots, and Trump came back on a law and order platform.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 06 2020, @03:57PM (1 child)
It's almost as if he has no plan and is reacting to whatever he happens to see on TV that day.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday September 07 2020, @12:19AM
Just wait 'til Shark Week!
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday September 05 2020, @11:06PM (2 children)
The IHME projection increases over 2,300 per day on November 14 and stays above that through the end of the year. It means that COVID-19 will be the leading cause of death in the US at that point. Moreover, your "let us get the fuck back to work" is actually closer to the mandates easing scenario, which crosses the 2,300 deaths per day level on November 6 and is around 12,000 deaths per day on January 1 -- over five times the daily deaths from heart disease.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday September 05 2020, @11:32PM (1 child)
Yeah but do the models include the warming effect of the Sun. Hmm?
Waitt... sorry wrong thread.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 06 2020, @08:12PM
Climate change models do include the Sun yes. That is the very basis of "greenhouse effect" and that calculation relies on the luminosity of the Sun.
There you go little troll, hope that feeds you for a while.
(Score: 2) by HiThere on Saturday September 05 2020, @11:41PM
IIUC, that 401,000 is an estimate, and is estimating a lot of people who haven't officially been called "deaths caused by COVID-19", even though that was the proximal cause. To an extent this is reasonable, as if you don't test, many deaths caused by COVID look like any other pneumonia. And it's also a high-balled estimate...reasonable, but assuming minimal mitigation.
Considering the push to get back to school and open businesses, it's probably not an unreasonable estimate, but it's certainly not the only way things could go.
Javascript is what you use to allow unknown third parties to run software you have no idea about on your computer.
(Score: 2) by Opportunist on Sunday September 06 2020, @04:06PM
If 9000 fewer people die, there's a great 401k joke in the making.