Stories
Slash Boxes
Comments

SoylentNews is people

Key Coronavirus Forecast Predicts Over 410,000 Total U.S. Deaths by Jan. 1: "Worst is Yet to Come"

posted by martyb on Saturday September 05 2020, @07:30PM   Printer-friendly
from the keep-your-distance-and-wear-your-mask dept.

upstart writes in with an IRC submission for aristarchus:

Key coronavirus forecast predicts over 410,000 total U.S. deaths by Jan. 1: 'The worst is yet to come':

In June, IHME predicted that the death toll in the U.S. would reach 200,000 by October, which appears to be on track.

[...] IHME previously projected 317,697 deaths by Dec. 1. The model now predicts that the daily death toll could rise to nearly 3,000 per day in December, up from over 800 per day now, according to Hopkins data.

[...] The most likely [IHME] scenario estimates that Covid-19 will kill 410,450 people in the U.S. by Jan. 1. The worst-case scenario, which assumes that restrictions and mask directives will ease, projects up to 620,028 people in the U.S. will die by then and the best-case scenario, which assumes universal masking, predicts that 288,380 people in the U.S. will die from Covid-19 in 2020.

[...] Despite the drop in new cases, the number of deaths caused by Covid-19 everyday in the U.S. has remained high, at nearly 1,000 new deaths per day, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

[The 9/11 terrorist attacks caused 2,977 deaths; the current US COVID-19 fatality rate is like having two 9/11 attacks each week. --Ed.]

Original Submission

 
This discussion has been archived. No new comments can be posted.
Key Coronavirus Forecast Predicts Over 410,000 Total U.S. Deaths by Jan. 1: "Worst is Yet to Come" | Log In/Create an Account | Top | 143 comments | Search Discussion
Display Options Threshold/Breakthrough Mark All as Read Mark All as Unread
The Fine Print: The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. We are not responsible for them in any way.

  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday September 05 2020, @11:06PM (2 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Saturday September 05 2020, @11:06PM (#1047021)

    The IHME projection increases over 2,300 per day on November 14 and stays above that through the end of the year. It means that COVID-19 will be the leading cause of death in the US at that point. Moreover, your "let us get the fuck back to work" is actually closer to the mandates easing scenario, which crosses the 2,300 deaths per day level on November 6 and is around 12,000 deaths per day on January 1 -- over five times the daily deaths from heart disease.

  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday September 05 2020, @11:32PM (1 child)

    by Anonymous Coward on Saturday September 05 2020, @11:32PM (#1047025)

    Yeah but do the models include the warming effect of the Sun. Hmm?

    Waitt... sorry wrong thread.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 06 2020, @08:12PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 06 2020, @08:12PM (#1047276)

      Climate change models do include the Sun yes. That is the very basis of "greenhouse effect" and that calculation relies on the luminosity of the Sun.

      There you go little troll, hope that feeds you for a while.