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from the keep-your-distance-and-wear-your-mask dept.
In June, IHME predicted that the death toll in the U.S. would reach 200,000 by October, which appears to be on track.
[...] IHME previously projected 317,697 deaths by Dec. 1. The model now predicts that the daily death toll could rise to nearly 3,000 per day in December, up from over 800 per day now, according to Hopkins data.
[...] The most likely [IHME] scenario estimates that Covid-19 will kill 410,450 people in the U.S. by Jan. 1. The worst-case scenario, which assumes that restrictions and mask directives will ease, projects up to 620,028 people in the U.S. will die by then and the best-case scenario, which assumes universal masking, predicts that 288,380 people in the U.S. will die from Covid-19 in 2020.
[...] Despite the drop in new cases, the number of deaths caused by Covid-19 everyday in the U.S. has remained high, at nearly 1,000 new deaths per day, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
[The 9/11 terrorist attacks caused 2,977 deaths; the current US COVID-19 fatality rate is like having two 9/11 attacks each week. --Ed.]
(Score: 2) by HiThere on Saturday September 05 2020, @11:41PM
IIUC, that 401,000 is an estimate, and is estimating a lot of people who haven't officially been called "deaths caused by COVID-19", even though that was the proximal cause. To an extent this is reasonable, as if you don't test, many deaths caused by COVID look like any other pneumonia. And it's also a high-balled estimate...reasonable, but assuming minimal mitigation.
Considering the push to get back to school and open businesses, it's probably not an unreasonable estimate, but it's certainly not the only way things could go.
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