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from the keep-your-distance-and-wear-your-mask dept.
In June, IHME predicted that the death toll in the U.S. would reach 200,000 by October, which appears to be on track.
[...] IHME previously projected 317,697 deaths by Dec. 1. The model now predicts that the daily death toll could rise to nearly 3,000 per day in December, up from over 800 per day now, according to Hopkins data.
[...] The most likely [IHME] scenario estimates that Covid-19 will kill 410,450 people in the U.S. by Jan. 1. The worst-case scenario, which assumes that restrictions and mask directives will ease, projects up to 620,028 people in the U.S. will die by then and the best-case scenario, which assumes universal masking, predicts that 288,380 people in the U.S. will die from Covid-19 in 2020.
[...] Despite the drop in new cases, the number of deaths caused by Covid-19 everyday in the U.S. has remained high, at nearly 1,000 new deaths per day, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
[The 9/11 terrorist attacks caused 2,977 deaths; the current US COVID-19 fatality rate is like having two 9/11 attacks each week. --Ed.]
(Score: 1, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 06 2020, @04:00AM (4 children)
BULLSHIT.
NYC has a ~0.2% COVID fatality rate PER CAPITA already. So, assuming every single fucking person in NYC has been infected (probably not true), you already have a number basically double the number you’re preaching... with more reasonable assumptions about NYC infection rate, the IFR is likely higher.
Whatever, asshat. Keep drinking the fucking Koolaid... maybe the COVID genie won’t come your way if you fiddle with the numbers enough.
(Score: 2, Insightful) by khallow on Sunday September 06 2020, @01:30PM (3 children)
How many of those COVID fatalities were due to COVID? There are three states with higher numbers of confirmed or likely covid cases than New York state yet none of the states are close to New York in fatalities. They all are about a factor of three lower fatality rate per reported cases. What's causing the discrepancy? I think it's overreporting of fatalities for COVID because otherwise you're left with the possibility that Texas and Florida do a better job of testing for covid than New York did.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday September 07 2020, @12:23AM (1 child)
Amazing how so many coders are really rotten at math.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Monday September 07 2020, @07:37PM
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 08 2020, @03:28PM
There's a fairly credible argument that it was due to New York's subway system. It is becoming evident that the severity of the illness is strongly correlated with the initial virus dose1. The confined and recirculated air in the train carriages resulted in much higher doses when someone infectious sneezed in the carriage. Similar death rates are seen in other areas that make extensive use of mass transit.
1. It makes sense. If you get a tiny dose your immune system has more time to recognize and fight it before it builds up to a severe illness.