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Key Coronavirus Forecast Predicts Over 410,000 Total U.S. Deaths by Jan. 1: "Worst is Yet to Come"

posted by martyb on Saturday September 05 2020, @07:30PM   Printer-friendly
from the keep-your-distance-and-wear-your-mask dept.

upstart writes in with an IRC submission for aristarchus:

Key coronavirus forecast predicts over 410,000 total U.S. deaths by Jan. 1: 'The worst is yet to come':

In June, IHME predicted that the death toll in the U.S. would reach 200,000 by October, which appears to be on track.

[...] IHME previously projected 317,697 deaths by Dec. 1. The model now predicts that the daily death toll could rise to nearly 3,000 per day in December, up from over 800 per day now, according to Hopkins data.

[...] The most likely [IHME] scenario estimates that Covid-19 will kill 410,450 people in the U.S. by Jan. 1. The worst-case scenario, which assumes that restrictions and mask directives will ease, projects up to 620,028 people in the U.S. will die by then and the best-case scenario, which assumes universal masking, predicts that 288,380 people in the U.S. will die from Covid-19 in 2020.

[...] Despite the drop in new cases, the number of deaths caused by Covid-19 everyday in the U.S. has remained high, at nearly 1,000 new deaths per day, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

[The 9/11 terrorist attacks caused 2,977 deaths; the current US COVID-19 fatality rate is like having two 9/11 attacks each week. --Ed.]

Original Submission

 
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  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 06 2020, @04:48AM (3 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 06 2020, @04:48AM (#1047099)

    One lever of control could have been federal control over interstate commerce, but Trump decided not to push that angle.

  • (Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 06 2020, @06:24AM (2 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 06 2020, @06:24AM (#1047123)

    Oh, yes, let's abuse the Commerce Clause some more. Unlimited power for Emperor Trump sounds great.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 06 2020, @09:44AM

      by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 06 2020, @09:44AM (#1047150)

      Compared to the governors abusing their Enabling Laws to ignore the legislature, Trump's abuse may have been better.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 08 2020, @03:15PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 08 2020, @03:15PM (#1047848)

      This might actually be a good time to do just that. In the current climate of Orange Man Bad the SCOTUS are more likely to reject such an argument than they have been for a long time. Precedent setting decisions that limit the commerce clause are a good thing.