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Key Coronavirus Forecast Predicts Over 410,000 Total U.S. Deaths by Jan. 1: "Worst is Yet to Come"

posted by martyb on Saturday September 05 2020, @07:30PM   Printer-friendly
from the keep-your-distance-and-wear-your-mask dept.

upstart writes in with an IRC submission for aristarchus:

Key coronavirus forecast predicts over 410,000 total U.S. deaths by Jan. 1: 'The worst is yet to come':

In June, IHME predicted that the death toll in the U.S. would reach 200,000 by October, which appears to be on track.

[...] IHME previously projected 317,697 deaths by Dec. 1. The model now predicts that the daily death toll could rise to nearly 3,000 per day in December, up from over 800 per day now, according to Hopkins data.

[...] The most likely [IHME] scenario estimates that Covid-19 will kill 410,450 people in the U.S. by Jan. 1. The worst-case scenario, which assumes that restrictions and mask directives will ease, projects up to 620,028 people in the U.S. will die by then and the best-case scenario, which assumes universal masking, predicts that 288,380 people in the U.S. will die from Covid-19 in 2020.

[...] Despite the drop in new cases, the number of deaths caused by Covid-19 everyday in the U.S. has remained high, at nearly 1,000 new deaths per day, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

[The 9/11 terrorist attacks caused 2,977 deaths; the current US COVID-19 fatality rate is like having two 9/11 attacks each week. --Ed.]

Original Submission

 
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  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday September 07 2020, @05:04AM (2 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Monday September 07 2020, @05:04AM (#1047438)

    The grandparents are the ones that are dying in droves

    Yeah, I may have heard of the great Swedish grandparent die-off, they've all gone extinct.

    Actually I didn't. About 6000 people overall have died from Covid according to their count. You probably could fit them in a small community park for an idea of scale.

  • (Score: 2) by Mykl on Monday September 07 2020, @05:44AM

    by Mykl (1112) on Monday September 07 2020, @05:44AM (#1047455)

    Sweden's death rate is the 8th highest in the world by population [statista.com], yet their population density of 25 people per square kilometre is 198th in the world [wikipedia.org].

    For such a low density population to be 8th highest in deaths should tell you just how badly their current strategy is performing.

  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday September 07 2020, @07:13AM

    by Anonymous Coward on Monday September 07 2020, @07:13AM (#1047478)

    Your absolute statistics is absolutely awe inspiring - where can I subscribe to your newsletter comrade?