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from the keep-your-distance-and-wear-your-mask dept.
In June, IHME predicted that the death toll in the U.S. would reach 200,000 by October, which appears to be on track.
[...] IHME previously projected 317,697 deaths by Dec. 1. The model now predicts that the daily death toll could rise to nearly 3,000 per day in December, up from over 800 per day now, according to Hopkins data.
[...] The most likely [IHME] scenario estimates that Covid-19 will kill 410,450 people in the U.S. by Jan. 1. The worst-case scenario, which assumes that restrictions and mask directives will ease, projects up to 620,028 people in the U.S. will die by then and the best-case scenario, which assumes universal masking, predicts that 288,380 people in the U.S. will die from Covid-19 in 2020.
[...] Despite the drop in new cases, the number of deaths caused by Covid-19 everyday in the U.S. has remained high, at nearly 1,000 new deaths per day, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
[The 9/11 terrorist attacks caused 2,977 deaths; the current US COVID-19 fatality rate is like having two 9/11 attacks each week. --Ed.]
(Score: 1, Flamebait) by Username on Saturday September 05 2020, @11:51PM (2 children)
They're down past one death per day and falling. They will reach herd immunity pretty soon. While we're over here with a destroyed economy, still pretending masks will stop a covid infection.
(Score: 4, Informative) by chr on Sunday September 06 2020, @12:46AM
Incorrect.
The death rate may well be slowly decreasing, but it's currently likely closer to 2-4 per day, i.e. about 0.2-0.4/1M. This is according to the most recent information from the swedish public health agency, "Folkhälsomyndigheten" (FHM).
On the topic of incorrect, e.g. the site worldmeters.com has an incorrect value for the size of the swedish population, so the total number of deaths/capita, confirmed by lab tests, is currently about 5837/10.3 M = 567 deaths/M. If excess deaths are used instead, the rate comes to about 635/1M.
The graphs by FHM typically shows death rate by _date-of-death_ (rather than by _report-date_). For such graphs, the data for the most recent time period are incomplete due to lag in reporting deaths. For Sweden you have to go back about 10 days before you can expect most deaths to have been included in the data. That there's lag in reporting is no different from any other country.
Further, Sweden is not near herd immunity according to FHM, where e.g. the state epidemiologist (Tegnell) has repeatedly stated a vaccine will be necessary to reach herd immunity at a national level. This is even though Covid-19 affects the population in a very heterogeneous way, i.e. cluster outbreaks, that effectively reduce the percentage needed for herd immunity. Tegnell has however said that he thinks the level of infections in e.g. Stockholm locally does contribute to reducing the effective reproduction rate, R_e. Anyway, the important point is that there's lots of population groups -- like old people -- who are completely unprotected, and where the illness would wreak havoc.
That said, FHM is not expecting a big second wave, but instead more localized / smaller outbreaks. What the toll will be from that will largely depend on how well the population (in the affected areas) are able to continue with measures such as social distancing and staying home in case of any symptoms. This is then, or is then to be, combined with testing. The positive cases are to be inputs to contact tracing. Currently only some swedish regions are doing that fully, namely regions with fewer cases and available resources for contact tracing.
(Score: 2) by PartTimeZombie on Sunday September 06 2020, @10:23PM
Sweden have given up on the idea of herd immunity, because it was a stupid idea.
We have herd immunity for smallpox, but not because we let people become infected, which is why health professions are aghast when idiots like Boris Johnstone suggest it.
(Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Sunday September 06 2020, @12:31AM (27 children)
The death rate for people who contract coronaids is currently less than half of a tenth of a percent. There are 350ish million people in the US. My math says that even if we doubled the current fatality rate, we'd come in fifty thousand or so deaths short of 400K once every last person in the nation had either gotten over it or died from it.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by chr on Sunday September 06 2020, @01:14AM (6 children)
I thought the CDC had an estimate of 0.65% or so on a population level. That's close to estimates I've seen in other countries. At least the CDC used that value as their best estimate in this planning document [1] -- there could be a more recent best estimate of course.
However, in my opinion it's pointless discussing IFR on a population level for this illness. The reason is the risk of dying is so dependent on e.g. the age of the infected, being e.g.:
- less than 50: 0.05%
- 50-64: 0.2%
- above 64: 1.3%
This means the number of dead will be very dependent on the age distribution of the population groups that get infected.
If everybody in the United States were infected, we'd then see:
- Below 15, About 61 M people, but maybe only 10 k deaths
- In 15-49: About 148 M => 74 k deaths
- In 50-64: About 62 M => 320 k deaths
- Above 65: About 53 M => 689 k deaths:
Basically, if the illness infects old people it gets really bad.
[1] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html [cdc.gov]
(Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Sunday September 06 2020, @02:56AM (5 children)
Estimate schmestimate. That's not the fatality numbers we're seeing and we're not seeing even half the actual cases because they present with zero to somewhat annoying but by no means requiring a hospital symptoms.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 1, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 06 2020, @04:00AM (4 children)
BULLSHIT.
NYC has a ~0.2% COVID fatality rate PER CAPITA already. So, assuming every single fucking person in NYC has been infected (probably not true), you already have a number basically double the number you’re preaching... with more reasonable assumptions about NYC infection rate, the IFR is likely higher.
Whatever, asshat. Keep drinking the fucking Koolaid... maybe the COVID genie won’t come your way if you fiddle with the numbers enough.
(Score: 2, Insightful) by khallow on Sunday September 06 2020, @01:30PM (3 children)
How many of those COVID fatalities were due to COVID? There are three states with higher numbers of confirmed or likely covid cases than New York state yet none of the states are close to New York in fatalities. They all are about a factor of three lower fatality rate per reported cases. What's causing the discrepancy? I think it's overreporting of fatalities for COVID because otherwise you're left with the possibility that Texas and Florida do a better job of testing for covid than New York did.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday September 07 2020, @12:23AM (1 child)
Amazing how so many coders are really rotten at math.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Monday September 07 2020, @07:37PM
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 08 2020, @03:28PM
There's a fairly credible argument that it was due to New York's subway system. It is becoming evident that the severity of the illness is strongly correlated with the initial virus dose1. The confined and recirculated air in the train carriages resulted in much higher doses when someone infectious sneezed in the carriage. Similar death rates are seen in other areas that make extensive use of mass transit.
1. It makes sense. If you get a tiny dose your immune system has more time to recognize and fight it before it builds up to a severe illness.
(Score: 2) by sjames on Sunday September 06 2020, @01:19AM (7 children)
Since we are obviously well on track for that 400,000, your figures for the death rate are obviously off.
(Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Sunday September 06 2020, @02:53AM (6 children)
You remember that curve they talked about flattening? Well it goes down at the back side not up.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 2, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 06 2020, @04:49AM (5 children)
Your mistake is that you assume we are on the backside. If the epidemiologists and virologists are to be believed instead of some random guy with strong, but baseless, opinions on the internet / his blowhard sources on Fox "News", it is more likely that we will see increases again as fall/winter arrives.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/new-research-suggests-should-prepare-resurgence-covid-19-across/ [telegraph.co.uk]
What difference does it make if we "shutdown the country" for a year or even two? We've spent tens of trillions killing brown people in decades of endless wars. How about we stop killing brown children so our rich parasite class can get even richer by stealing their country's natural resources, and divert a *fraction* of that money into keeping the population whole. The rich parasite class is making tons of money on this crisis. We could cancel the recent tax giveaways to the rich, and not even add to our national debt. Though adding to the debt in the present circumstances is exactly why we have that option available.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 06 2020, @04:52AM
Killing "brown people" is horrible. Doing it to yourself is moronic.
(Score: 2) by sjames on Sunday September 06 2020, @06:48AM (2 children)
It seems that the same people who told us it will be a big nothing, well, over by April, OK Easter for sure, would you believe.....Memorial Day, etc. would now have us believe we're now for reals on the back of the curve, yes, fer sure this time!
In the fine tradition of Carlin, I now place the tips of my index finger and thumb together and say "I BELIEVE them!"
(Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 06 2020, @09:50AM (1 child)
"Go hug a Chinese person!"
"Masks don't work!"
"Two weeks to flatten the curve!"
"Your local hardware store needs to close, but Home Depot is cool to stay open!"
"No Easter for you!"
"Masks are required!"
"Go out and protest!"
So much believability! Let's not let them fuck up more of our lives.
(Score: 1, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 06 2020, @08:20PM
"Go hug a Chinese person!"
= racist moron
"Masks don't work!"
= regular moron
* cloth masks don't prevent infection but do drastically reduce infectious ability of carriers
"Two weeks to flatten the curve!"
* and? Curve flattened means hospitals don't get swamped, yes they had to soft sell the harsh reality of the pandemic. Got a problem with science bruuuuuh?
"Your local hardware store needs to close, but Home Depot is cool to stay open!"
= must live in a Republican state. Here in "commiefornia" my local hardware stores are open just fine with plastic shields for cashiers and mask requirements.
"No Easter for you!"
= complete fucking moron, since when does your religious bullshit require large groups of people? No faith I see....
"Masks are required!"
= no shit, tell the other morons
"Go out and protest!"
* Not a problem if people are wearing masks, if they crowd up that is an issue, but I sense you added this one as some lame attempt to call protesters hypocrites, as if only Democrats care about police brutality.
Go soak your head you identity politics moron, be glad eugenics isn't approved by liberals or you'd be one of the first weeded out.
(Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Monday September 07 2020, @12:20PM
You know how I keep citing data every story or three about this bullshit? Yeah, not baseless then, are they?
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 06 2020, @05:41AM (3 children)
Your math is seriously flawed.
The US population is around 328.2 million. We have about 175,000 COVID-19 deaths. If we assumed that every single person in the US had been infected, that would be a death rate of 0.0533%, which is already slightly above your 0.05% number.
This, of course, assumes that everyone in the US has already been infected. That is false. In reality, serology tests suggest somewhere in the range of 15-20% of people have been infected. The US has a bit over six million confirmed cases. There is a common assumption that the confirmed cases account for about one in every ten infections, putting the real number of infections closer to 60 million. If we assume that roughly 20% of the US population has been infected, an assumption that is supported by multiple sources of data, the death rate actually comes in between 0.25% and 0.3%. The number could be a bit higher because not every death caused by COVID-19 is recorded as such, so it's probably better to go with the high end of 0.3%. This is a much more plausible estimate, one that is consistent with other published estimates and supported by multiple sources of data.
Regardless, your math is seriously flawed.
(Score: 2, Insightful) by khallow on Sunday September 06 2020, @01:32PM (1 child)
It's not quite the same as infected.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 06 2020, @04:02PM
Fair point, I meant to say they've been infected and didn't proofread my comment carefully enough. It happens.
There are about six million confirmed infections in the US. If one in ten infections are detected, that means about 60 million infections. TMB's math is faulty and he's unreasonably downplaying the severity of this virus.
(Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Monday September 07 2020, @12:23PM
Yeah, it would help if we stopped counting infected people who die in motorcycle crashes as coronaids deaths. We've already covered that repeatedly though, so keep believing your idiocy since you obviously have a mental firewall keeping out any data you dislike.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 1, Touché) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 06 2020, @07:04AM (2 children)
I hope TMB's math is half as good as his coding. But then, his coding has not been all that efficacious of late. Kind of like a Trump wall of coding? But, will let that slide.
Native Americans, for some reason, Oh, for actually very well understood reasons (racism) are dying at much higher rates than the general population of the US. Does TMB really want is tribe to suffer the consequences of this "white man's disease"? Not like it is syphilis, passed from the Spanish. Or Smallpox, as was deliberately targeted at the Blackfeet. Or even influenza, that killed so many native Americans, even before they had contact with the Washita. Yes, Native Americans, like TMB's ancestors, achieved "herd immunity", after most of them were dead, their warriors depleted, and the Whites found them an easy conquest for their genocidal
"Manifest Fuckery".
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 06 2020, @04:02PM
It's not Trump's fault that inferior races can't survive a case of the sniffles.
(Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Monday September 07 2020, @12:24PM
It's called melanin, dumbass. More melanin means less Vitamin D which means higher fatality rate. This is ancient news but then anything not supporting your beliefs you just ignore, eh?
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 3, Informative) by choose another one on Sunday September 06 2020, @09:45PM (4 children)
Maybe in the US, but in the UK we've got:
41k dead from the "official" count (dead within 28 days of positive test)
52k dead from the actually-bothering-to-look-at-cause-of-death count (from Office of National Statistics, takes time to do and is therefore some week out of date, so actual is more)
60k+ dead if you look at excess deaths
The large scale antibody testing shows that we've so far spread it to 6-7% of the population. The same type of tests show 60-70% infected in the worst hit areas of Italy by the way, so it isn't that people don't develop the antibodies, it's that it hasn't (yet) spread that badly here.
UK pop ~67M, 6.5% of 67M = 4.3M infected.
Using the most reliable (IMO) but also more out of date figure for deaths, the UK IFR is therefore 52000 / 4300000 = 1.2%
Scratching my head slightly as to how you've got IFR < 0.05% from the same thing - it's >20 times more deadly in UK than US, really? I can't think why it would be, but I guess if it is it might explain the difference in response...
(Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Monday September 07 2020, @12:29PM (2 children)
Dude, I have no idea about what's going on in GB but your government is even less answerable to its people than ours and we're provably cooking the numbers to make it seem worse than it is. Maybe they're cooking the books even harder because they're looking to engender a greater degree of the sheep trait in the populace than they already have or maybe nationalized healthcare is really that much worse.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 08 2020, @08:08AM (1 child)
The British got royally shafted. They switched to a conservative government to get brexit done, and that government then proceeded to imprison its citizens.
(Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday September 08 2020, @11:43AM
If you think they weren't already imprisoned, you're living in fantasyland. There's a reason they are called subjects and us Yanks are called citizens.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 08 2020, @08:02AM
Your figures don't account for those that were infected but had no effects, or hid their infections from the government.
(Score: 3, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 06 2020, @12:37AM (4 children)
Until compliance with martial law is 100%.
So, do what we say, and you will be safe.
Disobey, and die!
(Score: 2, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 06 2020, @04:22AM (1 child)
The only ones imposing elements of an authoritarian police state are members of the far-right authoritarian regime currently in power. They sent out plain-clothed federal agents in unmarked vans who kidnapped people off the street! They fired rubber coated steel bullets and tear gas at lawful peaceful protesters to clear a path so a wannabe dictator could do a photo op in a church / counter the image of him cowering in his bunker afraid of unarmed protesters.
The "2nd amendment" folks allied themselves with the authoritarians in power, forming cells terrorizing peaceful protestors. So much for they need their guns to protect against an authoritarian government impinging on people's rights and liberties-- they are just far-right, racist scum who want to be armed so they can form death squads that will ally with the authoritarian government, when a dictator compatible with their ideology seizes control.
But, oh noes, muh rights are violated by having to wear a mask!
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 06 2020, @04:04PM
When George Bush took away the 4th Amendment.... what use was the 2nd Amendment? It didn't help for shit.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 06 2020, @08:38PM (1 child)
Umm, are you trying to sound like an idiot? Ignore medical safety advice and people will continue spreading the virus and dying. Meanwhile, plenty of people are flaunting the "martial law" and suffering zero consequences for it. You have to be a really brainwashed fool to post something so stupid.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 08 2020, @01:41PM
You are an idiot with poor comprehension skills. Please be quiet. Compliance is not optional.
(Score: 0, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 06 2020, @01:42AM (5 children)
The worst is ALWAYS going to be yet to come. From one pandemic to the next.
(Score: 0, Troll) by leon_the_cat on Sunday September 06 2020, @04:17AM (3 children)
More BS from mainstream media. Find guy with most extreme death model at some big university. Sell fear watch people shit themselves and ask for almighty state to save them. Then when it doesn't happen anything like predicted they can shrug and go "But how could we have known it was a bad model? At the time we thought it was a GOD model predicting everything but its ok we readjusted the model now so next time it will be correct"
and then we go through another cycle...
(Score: 2, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 06 2020, @08:51AM (2 children)
This article is about the IHME model, which is not the most extreme model [cdc.gov] at all. The various models are also subject to verification [medrxiv.org] and it turns out that the IHME model actually performs quite well compared to others. Why continue to use the IHME model? Its performance compared to other models suggests it's one of the best available. Given the factually incorrect statements in your comment, I kindly encourage you to admit you made a mistake and retract your comment.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 06 2020, @08:40PM
"admit you made a mistake and retract your comment"
You must be new here ;)
(Score: 2) by leon_the_cat on Monday September 07 2020, @06:57AM
Why exactly? The proof is in the pudding. Will you come back and admit you are a stupid cunt when the model is shown to be way off? I will return with the final result...
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 06 2020, @04:06PM
The model I use is that it will just disappear one day. Probably when it gets warmer in Summer. There's one or two cases that will go away. It will all be a distant memory.
(Score: 2) by progo on Sunday September 06 2020, @06:00PM
Also, it IS literally having an extra disease for a while that's not quite as good as cancer or as good as heart disease at killing people.