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Bp Says We'Ve Already Reached Peak Oil:
BP is saying the quiet part loud: In the 2020 Energy Outlook report the energy giant published this week, it said that the world may have reached peak oil.
The covid-19 pandemic has done a serious number on the oil industry, with demand falling to historic lows amid lockdowns and prices falling into negative territory. In a report on Tuesday, the International Energy Agency warned that for the oil industry, the "path ahead is treacherous," reducing its forecast for global oil demand in 2020 by 200,000 barrels per day. And on Monday, OPEC lowered its predictions of demand in 2020 by 400,000 barrels per day.
In BP's new report, analysts said the market may never recover from this damage. The authors lay out three possible scenarios for the world's energy usage between now and 2050, which illustrate a rapid, moderate, and slow transition to renewables. The first two scenarios show demand for oil steeply falling over the next three decades. But even under the firm's most "optimistic" scenario for Big Oil where climate action doesn't accelerate, oil demand will plateau at 2019 levels before declining in 2035.
This is a vastly different picture from the one the firm sketched in its last outlook report just one year ago, which predicted oil consumption would continue to grow over the next decade, peaking sometime in the 2030s.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 22 2020, @11:58AM (5 children)
This is a warning to shareholders and should be viewed as due-diligence by BP. It doesn't actually mean anything. If you want to have real projections, you should look at the IEA (which actually has some derived blurb there). But all this is ignoring the 1-2 billion people in Africa. It *assumes* they will continue to live as they do and be excluded from being consumers of energy intensive products. This is a false presumption..
Anyway, the warning here is that the days of $100+/bbl oil are over and oil companies are going to have to compete on production costs. It doesn't mean end of oil is here.
(Score: 5, Insightful) by c0lo on Tuesday September 22 2020, @12:04PM (4 children)
Don't worry about them, the Chinese will get them solar panels aplenty in exchange for their cobalt and other stuff. They, the chinese, are already building the roads for some years now. (grin)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0 https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 22 2020, @12:40PM (2 children)
co0lio can chuckle, while China finishes buying up his country.
(Score: 2) by c0lo on Tuesday September 22 2020, @12:57PM
Nope, they('ve been) stopped buying [abc.net.au] us [smh.com.au] and now they try to punish us [theguardian.com].
They will still need our iron for a while [abc.net.au]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0 https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 22 2020, @12:59PM
(BTW, tmb, I don't chuckle, only grin.
Very rarely, I might LOL in your face)
(Score: 2) by legont on Tuesday September 22 2020, @11:26PM
Chinese need lots of oil to produce those solar panels; just saying.
"Wealth is the relentless enemy of understanding" - John Kenneth Galbraith.