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posted by martyb on Tuesday September 22 2020, @11:03AM   Printer-friendly
from the piqued-oil? dept.

Bp Says We'Ve Already Reached Peak Oil:

BP is saying the quiet part loud: In the 2020 Energy Outlook report the energy giant published this week, it said that the world may have reached peak oil.

The covid-19 pandemic has done a serious number on the oil industry, with demand falling to historic lows amid lockdowns and prices falling into negative territory. In a report on Tuesday, the International Energy Agency warned that for the oil industry, the "path ahead is treacherous," reducing its forecast for global oil demand in 2020 by 200,000 barrels per day. And on Monday, OPEC lowered its predictions of demand in 2020 by 400,000 barrels per day.

In BP's new report, analysts said the market may never recover from this damage. The authors lay out three possible scenarios for the world's energy usage between now and 2050, which illustrate a rapid, moderate, and slow transition to renewables. The first two scenarios show demand for oil steeply falling over the next three decades. But even under the firm's most "optimistic" scenario for Big Oil where climate action doesn't accelerate, oil demand will plateau at 2019 levels before declining in 2035.

This is a vastly different picture from the one the firm sketched in its last outlook report just one year ago, which predicted oil consumption would continue to grow over the next decade, peaking sometime in the 2030s.


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  • (Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday September 22 2020, @12:56PM (38 children)

    by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday September 22 2020, @12:56PM (#1054919) Journal
    Peak demand is a good indicator of peak supply.
  • (Score: 2, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 22 2020, @01:10PM (7 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 22 2020, @01:10PM (#1054927)

    Jesus, you are stupid. An economic downturn doesn't magically decrease the supply, but it sure as hell decreases the demand.

    • (Score: 2, Interesting) by khallow on Tuesday September 22 2020, @01:26PM (1 child)

      by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday September 22 2020, @01:26PM (#1054934) Journal

      An economic downturn doesn't magically decrease the supply, but it sure as hell decreases the demand.

      Speaking of stupid, you're conflating supply with reserves [investopedia.com]. Supply will almost mirror demand. A little will be lost to accidents and leakage. And there is some capacity to store oil. But that's it. Most oil that is extracted, which is supply, gets consumed, which is demand.

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 22 2020, @02:09PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 22 2020, @02:09PM (#1054949)

        you're conflating supply with reserves

        or inflating them, whatever the case may be.

    • (Score: 3, Interesting) by Phoenix666 on Tuesday September 22 2020, @01:41PM (4 children)

      by Phoenix666 (552) on Tuesday September 22 2020, @01:41PM (#1054940) Journal

      Jesus, you are stupid. An economic downturn does decrease the supply, but not magically. It decreases because the demand sure as hell has decreased. The supply doesn't magically produce itself, but rather requires great effort, time, and expense to produce. If the demand for that product drops, the suppliers will produce less.

      If you map that onto comparative statics [wikipedia.org], the demand curve (D) will move left with a new equilibrium being found where the new demand curve (D') will lay. The initial supply curve (S) will have to follow to (S') to meet the new equilibrium, and the supplier losses will be the difference.

      A putative supply of oil says nothing about its estimated raw quantity. For example, there might be endless forests in Canada, but none of it counts as a supply of lumber until it has been harvested and trimmed to standard dimensions.

      PS, it's better to generally refrain from calling people who are not stupid, "stupid." It happens with embarrassing frequency that you don't actually understand what you think you know.

      --
      Washington DC delenda est.
      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 22 2020, @02:20PM (3 children)

        by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 22 2020, @02:20PM (#1054955)

        This thread is all a response to the statement about peak oil which is ultimately based on how much oil is left in the ground to be exploited, i.e., reserves.
        Subsequent posters have tried to turn this into something else.

        • (Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday September 22 2020, @05:29PM (2 children)

          by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday September 22 2020, @05:29PM (#1055051) Journal
          Then this is an educational moment for you. Because it didn't! Peak oil (at least for the present) happened for a different reason.
          • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 23 2020, @06:03AM (1 child)

            by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 23 2020, @06:03AM (#1055254)

            Khallow, listen, please, to the collective wisdom of SoylentNews. These Soylentils are pointing out basic economic facts to you, you should pay attention. Just because you may think, incorrectly, that they disagree with your conservative Austrian Circle Libertariantard economic theory, that is no reason for you not to reason out the actual relations between supply and demand. Reagan was in idiot, you know, and Bush was correct in his assessment of Reagan's economic policy: Voodoo economics. You do not want to be doing "Voodoo economics", do you khallow? Next thing you know, you will be doing Zombie economics, or Trumponomics, as it is known. Trump created the greatest economy ever, by, um, talking about how he created the greatest economy ever, until, you know, he didn't. Total shyster flim-flam, complete gaslight economic fakery. Khallow!! Repent! Recant! Renounce your Paltry Gods! Accept the judgment of Ronan the Accuser!

            • (Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday September 23 2020, @11:37AM

              by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday September 23 2020, @11:37AM (#1055393) Journal
              I don't see you actually disagreeing for one thing.
  • (Score: 3, Disagree) by choose another one on Tuesday September 22 2020, @02:22PM (8 children)

    by choose another one (515) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday September 22 2020, @02:22PM (#1054957)

    No, Opec is a good indicator of supply,

    Peak demand is just that.
    Peak oil in a single oil field is peak production, after that it tails off because it's running out.
    Peak oil worldwide is peak production which then tails off because it's running out, faster than we can find more, everywhere.

    Peak coal didn't happen. As a kid in school in the 70s UK the textbooks said we had nothing to worry about, we had 300yrs of coal left, we also had 200k+ mineworkers. Today we have 300yrs of coal left, and about zero mineworkers.

    Peak oil also won't happen. "The stone age didn't end because we ran out of stone, the oil age won't end because we run out of oil" - I think it was a Saudi oil minister who said that, someone who should know where it's buried and how much there is (info the Saudis keep very closely guarded).

    • (Score: 3, Informative) by Aegis on Tuesday September 22 2020, @02:34PM (6 children)

      by Aegis (6714) on Tuesday September 22 2020, @02:34PM (#1054966)

      Peak coal didn't happen

      Peak coal happened in 2013 [wikipedia.org]

      If they meant to say we were completely out of coal they would have just said that.

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 22 2020, @02:54PM (5 children)

        by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 22 2020, @02:54PM (#1054978)

        Historically, it was widely believed that the supply-side would eventually drive peak coal due to the depletion of coal reserves. However, since the increasing global efforts to limit climate change, peak coal has been driven by demand, which has stayed below the 2013 peak consumption

        • (Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday September 22 2020, @05:30PM (4 children)

          by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday September 22 2020, @05:30PM (#1055053) Journal
          Widely believed != what actually happened.
          • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 22 2020, @06:25PM (3 children)

            by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 22 2020, @06:25PM (#1055075)

            Good job, that was the point. Peak coal, as defined by supply, did not happen.

            • (Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday September 22 2020, @07:21PM (2 children)

              by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday September 22 2020, @07:21PM (#1055099) Journal
              As defined by supply, it did happen. Supply isn't reserves in the ground.
              • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 22 2020, @08:32PM (1 child)

                by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 22 2020, @08:32PM (#1055117)

                And as others have pointed out in the comments, "peak oil" doesn't mean what you are saying, nor by extension, "peak coal."

                From Wikipedia:
                https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil [wikipedia.org]

                "The concept of peak oil is often credited to geologist M. King Hubbert whose 1956 paper first presented a formal theory. Peak oil occurs when the cost of oil extraction exceeds the price consumers will pay."

                It's all about the available resource "running out" because the remaining resources are difficult (and therefore more costly) to access.

                Numbskulls use the phrase "peak oil" to mean whatever they want, but basically as a catch-all perjorative against the oil industry.

                • (Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday September 22 2020, @10:25PM

                  by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday September 22 2020, @10:25PM (#1055147) Journal

                  "The concept of peak oil is often credited to geologist M. King Hubbert whose 1956 paper first presented a formal theory. Peak oil occurs when the cost of oil extraction exceeds the price consumers will pay."

                  That's still true in demand-driven peak oil. You're going nowhere with this.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 22 2020, @06:41PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 22 2020, @06:41PM (#1055082)

      The only thing that concerns them is Peak Profit.

  • (Score: 4, Interesting) by Runaway1956 on Tuesday September 22 2020, @02:28PM (18 children)

    by Runaway1956 (2926) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday September 22 2020, @02:28PM (#1054962) Homepage Journal

    No, it does not. As used originally, peak oil was a firm limit in productivity potential - that is, we didn't actually run out of oil, but oil began to be so scarce, that we could no longer pump it economically to the surface. The lesser known side issue of peak oil? We had one shot to get mankind into space, and if we blew it, we would eventually be done as a species.

    Thanks to a number of factors, including renewable energy, it appears we no longer need worry about peak oil.

    As has already been pointed out, the term peak oil has been misused here. In part due to fracking, in part to discoveries of new oil fields, it seems that there is more oil left in the ground than all the oil we have ever used.

    --
    Our first six presidents were educated men. Then, along came a Democrat.
    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 22 2020, @02:39PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 22 2020, @02:39PM (#1054970)

      it appears we no longer need worry about peak oil.

      But... but... not everyone can worry about Trump being reelected, we need to worry about something!?

    • (Score: 2) by crafoo on Tuesday September 22 2020, @02:54PM

      by crafoo (6639) on Tuesday September 22 2020, @02:54PM (#1054979)

      I mean, it's not all that dire. Nuclear power is a thing, as well as ideas to power orbital lift vehicles with nuclear explosions. We could use the southern border states as our no-mans-land testing grounds.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 22 2020, @03:24PM (12 children)

      by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 22 2020, @03:24PM (#1054994)

      But we're still on track to hit Peak Climate, right?

      • (Score: 1, Troll) by Runaway1956 on Tuesday September 22 2020, @03:40PM (11 children)

        by Runaway1956 (2926) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday September 22 2020, @03:40PM (#1055002) Homepage Journal

        We're still on track to hit peak whacko, yes. The climate has been changing since the earth was formed. It will continue to change, until there is no earth. Meanwhile, we will adapt, or we will die, or we will find other homes.

        --
        Our first six presidents were educated men. Then, along came a Democrat.
        • (Score: 2) by DeathMonkey on Tuesday September 22 2020, @03:54PM (3 children)

          by DeathMonkey (1380) on Tuesday September 22 2020, @03:54PM (#1055014) Journal

          or we will find other homes.

          We here in the first world probably won't.

          But all the poor folks whose home just got destroyed are going to need somewhere to go. Might as well come to the Land of the Free, amiright?

          • (Score: 2) by Runaway1956 on Tuesday September 22 2020, @05:28PM (2 children)

            by Runaway1956 (2926) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday September 22 2020, @05:28PM (#1055050) Homepage Journal

            No, we're going to send them all to the asteroids.

            --
            Our first six presidents were educated men. Then, along came a Democrat.
            • (Score: -1, Redundant) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 22 2020, @06:28PM

              by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 22 2020, @06:28PM (#1055078)

              Or. more likely, they are going to send you down the drain. Under the form of thoroughly digested soylent green.
              But that would be wasteful, the night soil is a resource.

            • (Score: 0, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 22 2020, @07:42PM

              by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 22 2020, @07:42PM (#1055105)

              Fuck off fascist prick.

        • (Score: 5, Informative) by Dr Spin on Tuesday September 22 2020, @04:08PM (6 children)

          by Dr Spin (5239) on Tuesday September 22 2020, @04:08PM (#1055023)

          We're still on track to hit peak whacko

          Trump being president is evidence that we are getting very close.

          --
          Warning: Opening your mouth may invalidate your brain!
          • (Score: 2) by Runaway1956 on Tuesday September 22 2020, @05:30PM (5 children)

            by Runaway1956 (2926) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday September 22 2020, @05:30PM (#1055052) Homepage Journal

            Someone thought you were funny. I'll give you an informative mod. Trump vs Biden proves that we really are whacko. Trump vs Hillary should have proved that already.

            --
            Our first six presidents were educated men. Then, along came a Democrat.
            • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 22 2020, @06:03PM (3 children)

              by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 22 2020, @06:03PM (#1055068)

              Trump vs Biden proves that we really are whacko.

              You say that now, but wait 'til you see what's on the ticket in another 4 years!

              • (Score: 2) by Runaway1956 on Tuesday September 22 2020, @06:33PM (2 children)

                by Runaway1956 (2926) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday September 22 2020, @06:33PM (#1055080) Homepage Journal

                AOC vs some incel, most likely.

                --
                Our first six presidents were educated men. Then, along came a Democrat.
                • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 22 2020, @06:43PM (1 child)

                  by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 22 2020, @06:43PM (#1055085)

                  You sure Trump Jr is going to run?

                  • (Score: 2) by Runaway1956 on Tuesday September 22 2020, @06:47PM

                    by Runaway1956 (2926) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday September 22 2020, @06:47PM (#1055087) Homepage Journal

                    I thought Trumpy Jr had a woman. Am I wrong? He certainly has enough money to buy one!

                    --
                    Our first six presidents were educated men. Then, along came a Democrat.
            • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 23 2020, @06:22AM

              by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 23 2020, @06:22AM (#1055261)

              Someone thought you were funny.

              No one thinks Runaway is funny, anymore. He is the stab in the back to American democracy. He is the Fundie wacko Christian appointed to the Supreme Court. He is the teenager with an assault rifle, assaulting Americans. Runaway is not funny. He still is ignorant, stupid, uneducated and ill informed; he is a lesser American, a hick, a redneck, a hillbilly, a deplorable. All that goes with his demographic. Not too bright, easily manipulated by Murdoch, and Sinclair, and OANN, and other Billionaire "bespoke" alleged "news" outlets. My god, Runaway, you are stupid, and so easily used. I can no longer respect you as an American, nor as a man. Fuck off, Runaway. And I mean that with the utmost sincerity.

    • (Score: 3, Interesting) by Osamabobama on Tuesday September 22 2020, @04:12PM (1 child)

      by Osamabobama (5842) on Tuesday September 22 2020, @04:12PM (#1055025)

      we didn't actually run out of oil, but oil began to be so scarce, that we could no longer pump it economically to the surface.

      The next step is often glossed over in this discussion: Once oil becomes more scarce, its price goes up, changing the economics of pumping it to the surface. The peak oil theory asserts that oil becomes unaffordable and society built on cheap oil collapses.

      Thanks to a number of factors, including renewable energy...

      Specifically, as the price of oil-based energy goes up, other energy, once more expensive, becomes affordable as a substitute. This mitigates demand for oil, providing a damping effect on the price increase. Simultaneously, the alternative energy sources (such as wind and solar) become cheaper as supporting technology is developed and production scale is increased. This leads other oil users to find ways to cut costs by changing sources, further reducing oil demand and price. Throw in a pandemic and you have another downward demand shock on top of all that, giving us our current situation.

      I don't think I added anything new to this discussion, but the rest of this page was focused on details, with nobody talking about the big picture.

      --
      Appended to the end of comments you post. Max: 120 chars.
      • (Score: 2) by deimtee on Tuesday September 22 2020, @05:47PM

        by deimtee (3272) on Tuesday September 22 2020, @05:47PM (#1055061) Journal

        I think we are on track to have renewables undercut oil for energy way before we run out. Unsubsidized solar and wind are pretty close to unsubsidized oil, but all the oil infrastructure already exists which makes changeover slow.

        Better batteries would be a massive boost to home solar, 5KW of solar panels and 60KWhr of energy storage and the average home could tell the electricity company to piss off and never pay another electricity bill. (probably need double that if you have an E-car) Already starting to happen with some new homes here in AU. (Electricity here is 20 to 30 AU cents/kwh).

        That doesn't address the other main use of oil, chemical feedstocks. As production goes down and unit costs go up, at some point it will plateau again when oil production matches chemical demand. I suspect that chemical demand is a lot less price sensitive than energy demand.

        --
        No problem is insoluble, but at Ksp = 2.943×10−25 Mercury Sulphide comes close.
    • (Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday September 22 2020, @05:20PM

      by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday September 22 2020, @05:20PM (#1055045) Journal
      Sorry that's a flaw of the original theory (as is the assumption that declines in supply would result in collapse of society). I've always included demand-driven supply reduction as part of the dynamic.
  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 23 2020, @12:54AM (1 child)

    by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 23 2020, @12:54AM (#1055194)

    You're right about this being peak oil supply. That you are right should be just the start of your thoughts.

    • (Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday September 23 2020, @04:41AM

      by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday September 23 2020, @04:41AM (#1055243) Journal

      the start of your thoughts.

      Where should we go from that?