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Bp Says We'Ve Already Reached Peak Oil:
BP is saying the quiet part loud: In the 2020 Energy Outlook report the energy giant published this week, it said that the world may have reached peak oil.
The covid-19 pandemic has done a serious number on the oil industry, with demand falling to historic lows amid lockdowns and prices falling into negative territory. In a report on Tuesday, the International Energy Agency warned that for the oil industry, the "path ahead is treacherous," reducing its forecast for global oil demand in 2020 by 200,000 barrels per day. And on Monday, OPEC lowered its predictions of demand in 2020 by 400,000 barrels per day.
In BP's new report, analysts said the market may never recover from this damage. The authors lay out three possible scenarios for the world's energy usage between now and 2050, which illustrate a rapid, moderate, and slow transition to renewables. The first two scenarios show demand for oil steeply falling over the next three decades. But even under the firm's most "optimistic" scenario for Big Oil where climate action doesn't accelerate, oil demand will plateau at 2019 levels before declining in 2035.
This is a vastly different picture from the one the firm sketched in its last outlook report just one year ago, which predicted oil consumption would continue to grow over the next decade, peaking sometime in the 2030s.
(Score: 2) by bzipitidoo on Tuesday September 22 2020, @10:11PM (5 children)
I think we will soon have a year of the EV. Probably BEVs, but fuel cells or some other energy storage system is certainly still possible. I keep thinking of flat screens vs tubes. They co-existed for a decade, and then in one year, 2009, the tubes collapsed. Went from about 50% of the market to gone. 0%.
2008 is also a notable year, for the spike in gas prices from roughly $2.50 to $4+ per gallon. When that happened, gas guzzling SUVs were dumped en masse. Was a huge glut of used SUVs clogging dealerships' used car lots. If SUVs could become "auto non grata" that quickly, ICE vehicles could suffer the same fate.
So it's just a question of when. How close are BEVs to rough parity with ICE cars? Just a wild guess, but the year of the BEV could be as early as 2025.
Something else about all this is that America drives way too much, and likes it that way. That too is changing. A whole lot of the driving we do is not really necessary, though we've convinced ourselves that it is. There's the ridiculously long work commute that wouldn't be so long if the worker didn't just have to have that place in the country. There should have been lots more telecommuting, but, many employers don't like it, fearing that it lowers productivity. Another issue is the car as a status symbol. When I see a Jaguar, I instantly think the owner is either an idiot or a sucker, or has way too much money.
America is still quite hostile to all other forms of transportation, except the passenger airliner. Where are our high speed rail links? Even the SF to LA route is still just a California dream. Walking is hindered by a hundred little things-- fences everywhere, bridges, roads and streets with no sidewalks, oceans of parking space between stores, loose dogs, and drivers with bad attitudes. Motorcycles have an aura of daring and danger about them, but bicycles are totally wimpy.
It would be pretty funny if the year of the EV never happens because the year of the death of the personal automobile arrives first.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 22 2020, @10:15PM
You are projecting your own very personal preferences as some mandate for everyone else to have to live your way. It's not logical nor respectful of others.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday September 22 2020, @10:31PM
It doesn't matter if it is "really necessary" or not. It is wanted. That is good enough.
(Score: 2) by anotherblackhat on Wednesday September 23 2020, @12:44AM (2 children)
Tony Seba, author of clean disruption thinks it will happen around 2025. (There are several youtube videos of his talks, including this one ; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0 [youtube.com] )
I disagree with his timeline but the basic points seem sound to me;
Batteries are going to continue to get cheaper and better.
Solar Panels are going to continue to get cheaper and better.
Cheaper, better, batteries means cheaper, better, electric vehicles.
Cheaper, better, solar panels means cheaper electricity. Cheap Solar + cheap batteries means solar will "win".
Once electric cars are cheaper than gas cars, that's pretty much it, and 90% of all new cars will be electric.
Likewise, once solar panels + batteries are cheaper than grid power, that's also pretty much it, and 90% of all homes switch to solar.
If you believe the cost projections, then solar eventually becomes cheaper than delivering electricity.
Which means solar would beat all forms of centrally generated electricity, even fusion.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 23 2020, @03:21AM
You are quite the fortune teller with your extrapolation of trends.
By extrapolating trends in the 1950s, we should all drive flying cars now.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 23 2020, @08:36AM
There's a lot more to the world than the equator. Not everyone get to enjoy sunny days year around. In fact, where i live, you would need a roof full of solar panels and it'd work maybe combined 3 months during the summer half of the year, when you don't have that energy consumption. It's the heating that uses most energy. Well except when you get that EV, then that's where the energy will go.