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from the tell-me-when-the-year-2020-is-over dept.
Hurricane Delta Becomes A Category 4 Storm As Winds Reach 140 MPH:
Hurricane Delta Becomes A Category 4 Storm As Winds Reach 140 MPH
Delta has grown at an extraordinary rate since early Monday morning, when its maximum sustained winds were only 40 mph. It quickly became a Category 4 on Tuesday, one day before it's expected to cross over part of Mexico's coast.
The hurricane center had previously predicted the storm could develop intensely strong winds late Tuesday and early Wednesday, but after a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured maximum winds near 130 mph with higher gusts, the center put out a special update before noon.
As a Category 4 storm, Delta will likely cause "catastrophic damage," according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
[...] The storm is predicted to take a slightly more westward path than forecasters had been predicting on Monday. But it's then seen curling toward the north and northeast, and its potential landfall remains on the Louisiana coast – raising concern in a region that has already seen flooding and power outages from storms over the summer.
"This storm will affect Louisiana and everyone needs to prepare accordingly," Gov. John Bel Edwards said on Tuesday.
[...] "The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is currently tied with the 1916 Atlantic hurricane season," meteorologist Philip Klotzbach says via Twitter, "for most continental US named storm landfalls in a season on record (9 landfalls)."
(Score: 2, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 07 2020, @11:26PM (2 children)
Delta has already crossed the Yucatan. Maximum sustained winds are down to 85 mph and the central pressure has risen to 977 hPa. It won't be making additional landfalls in Mexico. This is old news.
The forecast track has shifted to the left. Instead of making landfall closer to eastern Louisiana, the cone has been moved to the west and no longer includes New Orleans. Obviously that's good news for New Orleans. The bad news is that if the track moves any farther to the west, it could make landfall in a similar area as Hurricane Laura. Delta should intensify over the Gulf of Mexico but probably weaken again as it approaches the Gulf Coast. Water temperatures are cooler in the northern Gulf and vertical wind shear should increase as it approaches land. Rapid intensification seems somewhat unlikely over the western Gulf because water temperatures are considerably cooler than in the Caribbean. Delta will probably get close to being a major hurricane again but conditions are less favorable than in the Caribbean and become more hostile closer to the Gulf Coast.
(Score: 1, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 07 2020, @11:31PM (1 child)
Projecting major hurricane (cat 3) on Friday:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/211609.shtml?cone#contents [noaa.gov]
(Score: 2, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 07 2020, @11:49PM
It's going to be close to being a major hurricane for a time. That said, track forecasts are considerably more reliable than intensity forecasts. Large scale high and low pressure systems steer tropical cyclones, and those systems are forecast well by current computer models. Intensity is driven by thunderstorm activity in the core of tropical cyclones, which is a much smaller scale process, and something that the models don't forecast nearly as well. NHC's forecast has the winds peaking at 115 mph [noaa.gov], which is just over the threshold for a category 3 storm (111 mph). Here's a page with model forecasts for Delta [ucar.edu]. If you look at the intensity guidance, some of the models bring Delta to a category 3 storm while quite a few others keep it weaker. It'll probably get close to major hurricane status but it's uncertain if it gets to 115 mph and we're really splitting hairs here anyway. Intensity isn't forecast that well to begin with. The average forecast error in intensity at 36 hours is about 10 mph [noaa.gov], but the errors can be larger or smaller than that.
In terms of impacts to the US, the wind field will broaden and storm surge will be a concern over a wide area of the Gulf coast from eastern Texas through Louisiana. Delta should still be a hurricane when it makes landfall along the Gulf Coast, probably in central or western Louisiana. The models are in pretty good agreement about it being a category 2 hurricane at that point though the forecast uncertainty is probably larger than what that ensemble shows. Heavy rainfall and flooding is also a concern along the Gulf Coast.
(Score: 3, Funny) by EJ on Thursday October 08 2020, @01:05AM (1 child)
I thought Delta's hub was in Atlanta. Shouldn't this be hurricane Southwest?
I wonder if hurricane United will be a category 5.
(Score: 2) by VLM on Thursday October 08 2020, @12:50PM
We DO know that it'll be late, however.
(Score: -1, Offtopic) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 08 2020, @03:38AM
pffft... i am not too worried. afterall they know about these "hurricans" since at least ... what? ... 1916 if the rcords are to be believed.
so since then the inhabitants have been to the moon, made "thinking materials" (transistors) and harnessed the power of atoms so one can deduct that they're not completly st0pid... so there ... pffft.
(unless of course human greed, corner cutting and disregard for the less well off is still a thing? then maybe "better watch out!")
(Score: 2) by VLM on Thursday October 08 2020, @12:50PM (1 child)
Only gen-x and older will remember this one
This inspired the line in the revenge of the nerds movies "lambda lambda lambda" and even back then I programmed LISP so when I heard that line I was like "WTF are these nutjobs doing three lambda's deep this is shitty even for emacs elisp code standards"
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 08 2020, @05:01PM
In college there was a sorority Delta Delta Delta, which they referred to themselves as Tri-Delt.
The running joke was "Tri-Delt. Everyone else has."
(Score: 2) by DannyB on Thursday October 08 2020, @02:45PM (2 children)
Al Gore gave a dreadful speech 20 years ago which told us there would be more severe and more frequent storms including hurricanes and tornadoes.
He should not have done such an unpatriotic thing. Not to mention such an unprofitable thing for the
wrongright companies.When something is unprofitable enough, or even undesirable enough, then science no longer matters. That also rings true in recent times with medical facts.
Is there a chemotherapy treatment for excessively low blood alcohol level?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 08 2020, @04:57PM (1 child)
Well, you can't believe a word out of his mouth: Have you seen his house and how he leaves the lights on?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 08 2020, @05:32PM
Well, you can't not never disbelieve a word out of the mouth of an anonymous coward.