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Ireland to impose 5km travel limit in strict new Covid lockdown:
Ireland is to close much of its economy and society in a second Covid-19 lockdown that imposes some of the severest restrictions in Europe.
Non-essential shops will close and people are asked to stay at home, with a 5km (3 mile) travel limit for exercise, to curb surging infection rates, the government announced on Monday evening.
From midnight on Wednesday the country will move to its highest lockdown tier for six weeks. Visits to private homes or gardens will not be permitted and there are to be no gatherings except for tightly controlled weddings and funerals.
A graduated fine system for those who breach the 5km travel limit – with exceptions for work and other purposes deemed essential – will be announced later this week. People who live alone or are parenting alone can pair with one other household as part of a support bubble. Two households can meet outdoors within the travel limit. Public transport will operate at 25% capacity.
Non-essential retail will close along with barbers' shops, beauty salons, gyms, leisure centres and cultural amenities. Pubs, cafes and restaurants will be allowed to serve takeout meals only, a devastating blow to an already weakened hospitality sector.
(Score: 4, Funny) by The Mighty Buzzard on Sunday October 25 2020, @11:26AM (40 children)
Them folks are looking for a bloody revolution, telling the Irish they can't go to the pub.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 3, Touché) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday October 25 2020, @12:53PM (10 children)
Hasn't happened yet, they've been closed all summer,
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-ireland-economy/still-closed-irish-pubs-show-shortcomings-of-slow-lockdown-exit-idUSKBN2650YC [reuters.com] (from September 14, 2020)
(Score: 4, Interesting) by The Mighty Buzzard on Sunday October 25 2020, @01:02PM (9 children)
Dude, why you wanna ruin a perfectly good joke on the stereotype by taking it seriously?
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 5, Touché) by looorg on Sunday October 25 2020, @01:24PM (8 children)
Well according to the mods the joke just was not all that funny. You should have added something about potatoes, gingers or famine. That would really have hit the spot.
(Score: 4, Funny) by The Mighty Buzzard on Sunday October 25 2020, @03:08PM (1 child)
Scuse me, I meant perfectly functional not perfectly good. I was going for a groan not a belly laugh.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday October 25 2020, @04:12PM
+1 touche for me, the AC! Yay!!!
(now I'll get downmodded for gloating...).
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday October 25 2020, @04:24PM (5 children)
Guess which country has the largest population of gingers?
...step forward, the USofA. (ok, yes, that's courtesy of all the descendants of the Irish, Scots and Jewish immigrants..)
Now gingers as a percentages of the population...ISTR there's a dispute as to if it's the Irish or Scots who win that one.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday October 25 2020, @04:40PM
https://www.memecenter.com/fun/75576/Redhead-vs-Ginger [memecenter.com]
(Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Monday October 26 2020, @12:20AM (3 children)
WRONG!!! SO WRONG! Per capita, no country on Earth has a greater population of gingers than Gilligan's Island.
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday October 26 2020, @05:45AM (2 children)
+1 Groan?
(Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Monday October 26 2020, @06:27PM (1 child)
Oh snap! You don't like Ginger? So, you're in the Mary Ann camp, then? On second thought, as it's 2020 you could be in the Mrs. Howell or even Gilligan camp...
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday October 27 2020, @03:25PM
How about Ginger *and* Mary Ann [motherless.com]? [NSFW]
Or Ginger, Mary Ann *and* Lovey [motherless.com]? [also NSFW]
Now that would have made for some *must see TV* [wikipedia.org]!
(Score: 3, Interesting) by khallow on Sunday October 25 2020, @12:53PM (23 children)
The number of deaths from covid presently is somewhat better in Ireland than Sweden (crudely 400 deaths per million versus 600 deaths per million), but that's a lot of sacrifice for the extra lives lost.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday October 25 2020, @02:23PM (7 children)
Thank [thehill.com] our almighty (Protestant) God [bbc.com] we have everything under control [nbcnews.com] here in America, [npr.org] unlike those dirty, potato-eating papists [wsj.com]!
(Score: 2, Insightful) by khallow on Sunday October 25 2020, @03:34PM (6 children)
(Score: 1, Funny) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday October 25 2020, @04:03PM (5 children)
Traitor! Benedict Arnold! Quisling! You belong in prison for lies that contradict our wonderful President!
Our glorious leader told us we're the BEST on the CHINA VIRUS [bbc.com]!
Nobody dies from the CHINA VIRUS! It's all a HOAX perpetrated by AOC+three! They want to kill us all by making us wear masks!
They HATE AMERICA and want SHARIA LAW all across our great nation, so all those thousands of young, virile Muslim men waiting across the border in all those MEXICAN countries [ox.ac.uk] to come and put us in FEMA concentration camps and rape our women and girls, making brown babies!!!!
We all know that the CHINA VIRUS is almost gone. And will be completely gone before November 3rd [irishtimes.com], unless our fearless leader isn't re-elected. If that happens, EVERYBODY GONNA DIE!
And anyone (like you) who disagrees deserves a meal of hot lead, you traitorous scum!
And all the exclamation points are absolutely necessary!!!!
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday October 25 2020, @08:05PM (4 children)
Satirical conservatism is a lot funnier than your usual - maybe you should have dementia episodes more often?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday October 25 2020, @09:20PM (3 children)
Whoever you think I am (presumably you think I'm Ari), you're wrong.
In fact, I do that sort of shit pretty regularly.
That said, thanks for not getting Poe'd. That's so tiresome.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday October 27 2020, @02:11AM (2 children)
Unless, of course, you are Ari. Then he's right. There's no point to arguing identity on the internet when you're not willing to provide the slightest bit of bona fides.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday October 27 2020, @03:20PM (1 child)
Of course. But I'm not "arguing identity." Just stating he plain facts.
I don't care it you or GP accept those facts. So if you want to believe that I am Aristarchus, by all means do so. It's no skin off my nose.
I would point out that my writing style (which is similar whether I post AC or not) is demonstrably different than Ari's.
I guess the real question is "does it really matter?"
I'd say "no."
(Score: 0, Redundant) by khallow on Tuesday October 27 2020, @03:27PM
Unless, they aren't facts, plain or otherwise.
Ari probably has other accounts with other writing styles.
(Score: 2, Troll) by legont on Sunday October 25 2020, @03:41PM (14 children)
Can we discuss why the numbers are so different in the US? Consider 26,058 cases with 1,848 deaths in NJ vs. 48,387 cases with 588 in ND?
"Wealth is the relentless enemy of understanding" - John Kenneth Galbraith.
(Score: 2, Interesting) by khallow on Sunday October 25 2020, @03:55PM (2 children)
(Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday October 25 2020, @04:20PM
Early on, lots of people had covid and didn't know it (or couldn't be tested--no tests available), so I'm guessing that a big part of the discrepancy is that NJ actually had many more non-lethal cases than that, it's just that they were not reported.
As I've noted before, it takes a long time to really figure out what happened. Eventually it will be possible to look at historical trends and then look for "excess deaths" in certain causes of death (have to correct for many things, like much less exposure from highway accidents).
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday October 25 2020, @05:55PM
You're forgetting the political leadership. ND is republican run, they have no desire to pump up numbers to support the democrat narrative.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by RedGreen on Sunday October 25 2020, @04:15PM (1 child)
"Can we discuss why the numbers are so different in the US? Consider 26,058 cases with 1,848 deaths in NJ vs. 48,387 cases with 588 in ND?"
I would think it is due to the idea in the NY and NJ area at the start of it in the spring it got into the seniors homes. They drop like flies in them places we have next to nothing for the disease here it is a non event really. Except at the start where the selfish disease spreading bastard that started it by still having to go on their vacation when the planes were flying empty in Europe. They worked in a seniors home or were a family member of someone there where they spread it. When it was all over and done with, close to 60 people were dead in that large building. All of them seniors, the other five or six who have died since then in that time were seniors outside of that one institution who had the vast majority of the deaths. Now we get a case or two a week all due to travellers going outside of our area coming back. The selfish cocksuckers are still getting on planes and flying into disease infested areas and coming back sick. At least we are not getting any community transmission due to it yet, hopefully our luck continues to hold.
"I modded down, down, down, and the flames went higher." -- Sven Olsen
(Score: 2) by legont on Monday October 26 2020, @01:29AM
Yes, governors of tri-state area killed a lot of seniors when they ordered nursing homes to accept covid patients, but nevertheless they count for roughly 30% of the dead. It does not explain 6-7 times lower ND death rate.
"Wealth is the relentless enemy of understanding" - John Kenneth Galbraith.
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday October 25 2020, @04:55PM (2 children)
The numbers in the US are different because of a divide-by-zero error. You see, the US, being the Land of Make-Believe, uses the Imaginary Number System.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday October 25 2020, @05:42PM
The US has a large set of irrational numbers.
(Score: 2) by captain normal on Sunday October 25 2020, @09:04PM
No they are not imaginary. It's merely alternate numbers from the Alternate Number System.
"It is easier to fool someone than it is to convince them that they have been fooled" Mark Twain
(Score: 4, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday October 25 2020, @05:06PM (3 children)
Those numbers aren't accurate. In NJ, there have been 227,339 cases and 14,492 deaths. [arcgis.com]
In ND there have been 37,718 cases and 456 deaths. [nd.gov]
That makes NJ's Case Fatality Rate (CFR) = (14,492/227,339 = ~6.4%) and 0.16% of NJ's total population
And ND's CFR = (456/37,718 = ~1.2%) and 0.06% of ND's total population
The majority of deaths/cases in NJ were much, much higher in the March-May time frame, when we had less information on how to test/trace and treat folks. [arcgis.com]
Cases in North Dakota were much lower in that time frame, and cases have been exploding for the last two months. [nd.gov]
Also, NJ has a population density of 1,211 people/sq. mile, while ND has a population density of 9.7 people/sq. mile. Higher population density having a strong impact on transmission.
What's more, NJ is the most densely populated state in the US with nearly 9 million people in an area of 8,729 sq. miles, while ND has the 47th (out of 50) population density and has a population nearly 12 times smaller (~762,000) in an area nearly nine times larger (70,700 sq. miles).
Given the much lower population density of ND, the better and more formalized treatment protocols since May, as well as much stricter isolation of vulnerable populations and more widespread testing/tracing, coupled with the much later onset of widespread transmission there, it's unsurprising that the death rate is much lower in ND than in NJ.
Does that answer some of your questions?
(Score: 2) by legont on Monday October 26 2020, @01:25AM
So, the death rate in ND is what - roughly 6-7 times lower than in NJ while the post I replied to compared Ireland with Sweden where the difference is just 20-30%; probably way withing noise level, but people are using it to compare policies, which are hugely different.
"Wealth is the relentless enemy of understanding" - John Kenneth Galbraith.
(Score: 2) by legont on Monday October 26 2020, @02:09AM (1 child)
This is misleading. About a third of ND population resides in Fargo metropolitan area where density is above 2000 ppl/sq mile.
"Wealth is the relentless enemy of understanding" - John Kenneth Galbraith.
(Score: 1, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Monday October 26 2020, @06:14PM
NJ has a bunch of rural areas too, so the density in Newark, etc (near NY City) is hugely higher than the state average.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday October 25 2020, @05:17PM
Those numbers are wrong, as I discuss in another comment [soylentnews.org].
This site [statista.com] (Javasrcript required) will give you lots of details around what you're curious about.
It's actually sitting in the submissions queue [soylentnews.org] right now, in fact. I did not submit it though.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday October 25 2020, @09:50PM
It’s not the people who die that count. It’s the people who count the deaths.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday October 25 2020, @02:03PM (4 children)
"with exceptions for work and other purposes deemed essential"
(Score: 1, Redundant) by The Mighty Buzzard on Sunday October 25 2020, @03:09PM (3 children)
They're Irish, going to the pub itself is considered essential.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 2, Touché) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday October 25 2020, @04:23PM (2 children)
This joke fell as flat as your first one, sorry, it's just not your day.
Irish, pub/alcohol, [needs another hook to work]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday October 25 2020, @04:59PM
Or a good setup,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZcrFHqQRPU [youtube.com]
(Score: 1, Offtopic) by The Mighty Buzzard on Sunday October 25 2020, @09:42PM
You're going to need to work on your sense of humor if you ever plan on having sons/daughters/nieces/nephews. There's a very good reason Dad Jokes are a thing.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday October 25 2020, @02:03PM (2 children)
For all its faults, we can be glad that we live in America, where dictatorial powers are moderated by the courts and there are liberal jurisdictions to legally escape to.
(Score: 0, Disagree) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday October 25 2020, @02:15PM (1 child)
There is an election coming up. Vote Republican to keep it that way. As a side effect, it may save Europeans from imprisonment too.
(Score: 3, Touché) by Pino P on Sunday October 25 2020, @03:52PM
Republicans have tended to exercise broader dictatorial power against women.
(Score: 4, Interesting) by venn on Sunday October 25 2020, @02:27PM (8 children)
It's not as severe a lockdown as we had back in March/April. That was very severe, and most businesses were closed.
We lately introduced a scale from 1-5 and moved from 3 to level 5 this week. It's a bit lighter than the lockdown, more businesses remain open, as are schools. The 5km restriction isn't that strict, there are plenty exceptions. Also, 5km goes a long way on our island.
A lot of external media is over playing it a bit, particularly the protest last week, which was a tiny group of a hundred or so anti-maskers. ( it's usually the same group of Facebook moms/karens who protest 5G and the likes). The rest of the country found this hilariously cringe worthy.
For real un-editorialised info on our current restrictions, check https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/2dc71-level-5/ [www.gov.ie] and general info here https://www.gov.ie/en/campaigns/c36c85-covid-19-coronavirus/ [www.gov.ie]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday October 25 2020, @05:32PM (2 children)
> scale from 1-5
Why can't we have a color coded scale like for terrorists? Orange level alert.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday October 25 2020, @09:29PM
That's how it is in New York [ny.gov]:
Here's an example [yimg.com].
Because we got it like that!
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday October 25 2020, @10:06PM
Well, the parent commenter is venn (13224), so I think a diagram would be in order.
(Score: -1, Flamebait) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday October 25 2020, @06:00PM (4 children)
Better dead than a slave. Too bad Ireland lost it's balls.
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday October 25 2020, @07:14PM (3 children)
Not just Ireland. Pretty much the entire West is being led around by the nose ring by the deep state. Human life in those erstwhile liberal democracies has turned into fear and panic for a "deadly virus" whose complications kills less than 1%. And it all happened within the space of a week.
Most of the government action is to see how much suffering the people will take given propaganda support in the media. In the US, the practical goal is to return deep state politicians back to power in the coming election. I am astonished that Sweden has escaped the MSM drumbeat to like lemmings into the sea. They hadn't seemed to be that independent from the Western deep state in recent years.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday October 25 2020, @09:21PM
Thank you Vladimir, now shut up, sit down and finish your vodka.
(Score: 3, Touché) by https on Sunday October 25 2020, @10:20PM (1 child)
If you keep bringing pepperoni to the bear hunts, don't be surprised when your companions shoot you in the back.
Your death wish has a direct impact on other people.
Offended and laughing about it.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday October 26 2020, @06:18PM
what a stupid bitch. i'm not responsible for your fat, vitamin deficient ass, you fucking slave.
(Score: 0, Troll) by VLM on Sunday October 25 2020, @05:45PM (24 children)
I was told magic masks would protect us?
Certainly, the local K-12 school district has been going in "witch hunt draconian mode" to ensure 100% compliance in mask wearing, despite which the local case load has tripled since re-opening the schools in September.
If even under authoritarian 100% mandatory compliance, masks simply don't work, then the mask-holes bullying people about mask wearing are all ...
(Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday October 25 2020, @06:25PM (6 children)
And where is your local case load coming from?
Around here we had a slight uptick in cases when school started, but not much. Mask wearing inside public places is very high here and free hand sanitizer is near the door for nearly every business. We got hit hard in the first wave and nearly everyone is doing their bit to avoid a second/third wave.
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday October 25 2020, @07:51PM (3 children)
Hope you are praying hard; it's probably more effective than your face rag.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday October 25 2020, @09:27PM (1 child)
Check NY State for number of new cases (very low for 3 months now) and positive test rate -- varies between 1% and 2% for the same period. According to https://www.covidexitstrategy.org/ [covidexitstrategy.org] NY State is also testing at twice (or more) the rate that would be predicted just by our population.
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday October 25 2020, @09:36PM
Yeah, and check this too [nyc.gov] -- The most densely populated area in the US and cases counts are low and schools and most other places are open -- because people are wearing masks, getting tested, and most of us are working together to make sure we protect each other -- which is what wearing masks are for -- not to protect yourself, but to protect the people around you.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday October 25 2020, @09:28PM
I'm post-theological. No fairy god to pray to.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday October 25 2020, @10:44PM
Think the COWED-99 condition protects from COVID-19? We will see. It is a lot of time till next summer.
(Score: 2) by VLM on Monday October 26 2020, @12:42PM
Indeed. According to http://covid19.healthdata.org/ [healthdata.org] the ADULT measurements of mask wearing and social activity are roughly flat line from July to October. They can't legally track the kids. The school district is draconian in its mask policies so we can assume 100% compliance in mask wearing. The case numbers explode starting about two weeks in September.
If you assume it can't be the kids, it sure as heck must be something. Bioweapon attack or ? The graphs show measured adult behavior didn't change, if anything slightly higher mask wearing and with the end of summer the social distancing increased... among adults only.
Apparently 100% mask wearing in schools causes massive increase in cases. "Big Brother" tells me on the TV that never lies to me that masks are as effective as condoms now go out there and spend spend spend and attend (left wing) protests.
(Score: 2) by PiMuNu on Sunday October 25 2020, @08:23PM (16 children)
> I was told magic masks would protect us?
The efficacy of masks is well established in the literature as a means of preventing spread. Why do you weigh poorly-controlled anecdotal evidence more highly than well-controlled professional studies?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday October 25 2020, @09:29PM
It's just a troll...
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday October 25 2020, @09:38PM
Other AC is correct, it is a troll.
But it's a troll from selfishness *and* malice, not just malice.
Because the troll can't imagine why protecting *other* people is something worthwhile.
It's sad and pitiful.
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday October 25 2020, @09:57PM (11 children)
Very unfortunate that we have to live in the reality instead.
(Score: 2) by VLM on Monday October 26 2020, @12:17PM (10 children)
Exactly. It doesn't matter if they work in the lab or the hospital operating room if they simply pragmatically do not work "out in the real world".
That's really nice for operating room patients at hospitals if masks prevent all kinds of infections. Unfortunately for the kids in our local school system, 100% mandatory mask wearing has not worked.
(Score: 2) by PiMuNu on Monday October 26 2020, @12:52PM (9 children)
I agree, I can't see mask wearing being successful for school children - even reasonably old ones. In UK this issue has been mitigated by stopping school children moving between year groups and class groups.
Also, in the workplace, it is hard to imagine wearing a mask for long stretches. This issue can be mitigated by mask wearing in communal areas only (e.g. while moving through buildings to office). There is, of course, a "risk versus hassle" balance to be struck.
However, transmission elsewhere can be prevented by mask wearing. For example, in shops, in communal areas at workplaces, etc. It's not such a great burden, although it does make one look a bit silly.
(Score: 2) by VLM on Monday October 26 2020, @04:08PM (6 children)
We have real world data on that too. Mask wearing was 30% or under after quarantine around here and has since increased to 60%.
Its trivial to look at the ratio of number of infections at date X vs number of infections at date X plus two weeks. Obviously the increase or decrease in infections at time X+ must depend on behavior; else why bother trying to regulate behavior? In theory, if masks work, and the number of people wearing them doubles, then the number of new infections should fall.
It does not.
Therefore increasing mask wearing percentage from 30% to 60%, had no effect, so lowering mask wearing from 60% to 30% would also have no effect.
Given that there was no change in infection rate going from 30% to 60% mask wearing, there seems little hope that going from 60% to 90% would have a different effect.
There just seems to be no point in wearing masks. Without a benefit, why bother?
The real cost is in lying to the population to encourage negative behaviors. For example the local school district opened under the promise that wearing masks would prevent the spread of the disease. The result was a tripling of case count. If people did not have a blind faith in mask wearing as a religious totem or whatever, there's MANY infected people right now who wouldn't be infected.
I had to visit a walmart over the weekend and it was pretty creepy; store full of people wearing a mask thinking they're protected, but the actual historical data shows they may as well not bother. I shouldn't have been in that store and neither should they.
Mask mandates are like mandating a safety lever be installed on guns with the full awareness based on deployment data that the do not work and provide a false sense of security; regardless of any authoritarian pronouncements of how well it worked in CAD draftings or how high ranking the official making the announcement that it works. Mother nature cannot be fooled; masks do not work in practice and provide a false sense of security.
(Score: 2) by VLM on Monday October 26 2020, @04:13PM (3 children)
Or rephrased, if you look at the infection vs mask graphs of a four week period where mask wearing went from 30% to 30% to 30% and new infections dropped, whereas we also have data where mask wearing went from 30% to 40% to 50% and infection rate ... increased ... that is not looking very good for the effectiveness of mask mandates.
You can run similar statistical analysis on lockdown. Interesting how where I live the infection rate was lower after lockdown ended despite social distancing graphs based on cell phone data clearing showing a difference of 50% in subscriber mobility. Its almost as if lockdowns don't work.
I suspect the people in power understand this fully and are in damage control mode telling people if they just suffer enough nonsense now, everything will be better. But a scientist who looks at the graph can tell lockdowns and masks have been no more effective than faith healing at reducing viral infection. Essentially the powers that be are wasting peoples time and effort to make them feel less powerless, despite being quite powerless indeed when one looks at the graphs.
(Score: 2) by PiMuNu on Monday October 26 2020, @05:19PM (2 children)
Point taken. Studies like these obviously demonstrate that mask usage "should" prevent covid spread:
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/36/eabd3083 [sciencemag.org]
There are a lot of confounding factors so it is hard to do a good study of covid "in the wild" as you propose. But I take your point, and similar comments can be made about UK. I couldn't find a good study since July or so (face masks became mandatory in UK since August or so).
> You can run similar statistical analysis on lockdown
Well, the original covid lockdown did work - i.e. the first wave did subside. Are you positing some other reason for that success?
> I suspect the people in power understand this fully and are in damage control mode
Not really - publishing is fairly easy, it is hard to suppress thousands (tens of thousands?) of epidemiologists who are working on this. You should be able to find a journal reference if there is good data.
(Score: 2) by VLM on Wednesday October 28 2020, @01:22PM (1 child)
Also plenty of historical data that wearing masks in operating rooms and similar areas work great at preventing disease spread.
Yet, looking at recent results in the data, they're just not working at all in the general public.
Obviously some difference in quality (public health "mask" equals bandana, neurosurgeon's OR mask is heavily govt regulated both in manufacture and use).
Maybe the virus just isn't bothered by masks for whatever weird reason even if in the lab, abstract tests seem to work.
Maybe the data is weird / bad / fake. All data is "bad" in the sense of being imperfect, but screwing up this bad would be epic level mistake which seems unlikely.
Could be application layer, like after 40+ hours of using the same mask the media is saturated and its actually worse than not wearing a mask. Its "engineering plausible" although just a random brainstorm. Certainly logic would dictate that after spitting into something enough, it would become, essentially, spit. Perhaps people need to switch masks more often or wash masks or disinfect them. If this wild hypothesis were true, it would explain why masks work great in operating rooms on doctors faces for less than 10 hours at a time, but have no effect on disease reduction when the general public wears the same mask for a month at a time.
Could be application layer like excessive exercise makes masks worthless due to high air flow. After all not many mask wearing heart surgeons climb three flights of stairs in the middle of a transplant. Again, wild brainstorming of a hypothesis. But that hypothesis would certainly explain why masks work in operating rooms and fail in the general public. Certainly, in the general public everyone carrys something heavy or climbs stairs once in awhile so if the heavy air flow of doing that made masks worthless at disease prevention, that would explain a lot.
At any rate, "clearly it doesn't work, so we need to do more of it so everyone is unified and it looks like we're doing something" is the usual political madness so naturally thats what we're implementing.
Peer review, publishing delays, grant money, meetings, the usual academic delays. I'm sure in about two years there will be some interesting journal articles about how masks were observably worthless at disease prevention despite working in the lab.
The hypothesis game is fun, but just talking about pure observation, for fun we'll assume first derivative of social distancing would affect first derivative of total infected people aka new case numbers. Also we'll assume covid19.healthdata.org is not fake data. We'll assume the news stories about the incubation time being two weeks are also true.
Lets look at Illinois:
March 8 social mobility 0% baseline standard estimated daily new infections 900
March 22 social mobility in this interval dropped from 0% baseline to 51% lower. Estimated daily infection count 8705 which is So first derivative of social distancing is 51 and case load change is 7800
May 13 lockdown seemed to begin to end around now in the data. Social mobility -44%, new daily infections 10012.
May 27 two weeks social mobility score now -36%, so a first derivative of 8 percent less social distancing should result in many more cases. Actual new daily infections reported 7259 which is a drop of 2753 not an increase.
So two datapoints, (social distancing, change in daily infection rate) are (+51, +7800) and (-8, -2753)
This can be repeated over many locations and over a long period of time. Then combine into best fit.
The best fit of a pitiful two datapoints is (change in infection rate two weeks later) = 178 * (percent increase in social distancing) - 1322
Now the y-intercept is "small" compared to case totals and may as well be ignored. But we were promised that killing the economy would save us from infection, yet it seems that every percent decrease in social mobility in Illinois actually increased the number of cases by 178 two weeks later. Huh. Big brother said that number would be negative for sure, and thats how we'd save everyone from infection. Of course the TV and our political leaders would NEVER lie to us, would they?
There are other oddities. There's a long flat period in Illinois from July and August where nothing changed in disease spread yet mask use varied by ten percent. The mask average is only about half. So we can predict that if 10% change in mask use is invisible in disease spread graphs, why not estimate 0% or 100% mask use would also be invisible in the disease spread graphs?
Daily infections since the start of the school year have tripled. Yet mask use is 100% mandatory in my kids schools (admittedly not the hellhole of Illinois, but...) and mask wearing among the general public increased 4% over the same time interval. So increasing mask wearing 4% resulted in a tripling of infection rate. Interesting.
(Score: 2) by PiMuNu on Thursday October 29 2020, @07:53AM
I don't quite know what your data source is or what "social mobility" means so I can't comment on your stats. To pick a couple of random data points from Europe:
Lockdown looks like it has a pretty strong affect in UK (lockdown 23 March)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom#/media/File:UK-lockdown+lifting.png [wikipedia.org]
and France (lockdown 16 March)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_France#/media/File:COVID-19-France-log.svg [wikipedia.org]
This UK graph on linear scale and also shows second wave (sorry for long URL):
https://en.wikipedia.org/api/rest_v1/page/graph/png/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom/0/183efc7192d9478f9bbfce3b6bc54a9baaa87d54.png [wikipedia.org]
In second wave the lockdown measures have been staged/implemented locally, so harder to really parse the data.
Can't comment on masks from this data...
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Monday October 26 2020, @06:25PM (1 child)
> Mask wearing was 30% or under after quarantine around here and has since increased to 60%.
There's your problem (the problem in your area), right in your numbers. Here in NY, where (as noted elsewhere) we are doing pretty good at the moment, mask wearing in public places (like stores) is up above 90%. That's what it takes to keep our new cases rate down to 1%-2% of tests, because no one knows if they are contagious.
If your school kids are near 100% (as are our kids in NY State), then they are not the cause of your local cases going up. 60% is not nearly high enough.
(Score: 2) by VLM on Wednesday October 28 2020, @01:36PM
covid19.healthdata.org disagrees with your numbers. In NY peak mask wearing was July thru August around 80% and since declined to about 75%.
I donno man. Its possible to build castles of dreams mathematical models where 60% mask use has zero impact on disease spread not showing up in the slightest whereas 75%, a mere 15% more, knocks the disease out entirely. That just doesn't sound reasonable as a disease model ...
Its possible to get boxed in with that strategy.
Minnesota has been running just a hair under 70% and has had a tripling of cases since school started. So masks are completely ineffective at preventing disease spread at 68% of the population like MN, but are effective at wiping the disease out like NY at 75% use.
New Jersey's case load has been flat since school opened and mask wearing is at 70%.
The math model is looking kinda ridiculous at this point.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday October 27 2020, @03:51PM
Except it has been (at least here [nytimes.com]) successful:
That's a 0.17% (zero point one seven percent) positive rate. Which is ~6x less than the overall positive test rates in NYC.
What's more, as of *yesterday (26 October 2020), there have been 892 positive tests among staff (488) and students (404) [nyc.gov].
And since ~26% (286,000) of NYC school students are participating in in-person learning [nytimes.com], that's a 0.14% (zero point one four percent) positive rate among students. Even more, if you add in the staff numbers of positive cases (although it's somewhat less because I don't have numbers of staff to add to the total population, but let's go with it anyway) that's still only 0.31% (zero point three one percent).
So yes, it *can* be successful. If it can be successful in the most densely populated city in the US, it can be successful across the US, but *if, and only if* both the schools and the larger community work together to protect each other via aggressive testing/tracing and isolation of those who are infected.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday October 27 2020, @03:53PM
I know. And since it's so important not to look silly, grandma should die instead.
Please.
(Score: 1, Flamebait) by VLM on Monday October 26 2020, @12:36PM (1 child)
Like other things that don't work, like communism, gun control...
Its even playing out the same way. Attack anyone who points out it wont work, insist its just not being tried hard enough, blame some subpopulation as the source of all evil preventing it from working, etc.
(Score: 4, Interesting) by PiMuNu on Monday October 26 2020, @12:46PM
> Like other things that don't work, like communism, gun control...
I don't believe the comparison is valid one.
You are comparing literature on a physical barrier preventing the spread of spit to literature on a form of government.