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Testing half the population weekly with inexpensive, rapid-turnaround COVID-19 tests would drive the virus toward elimination within weeks—even if those tests are significantly less sensitive than gold-standard clinical tests, according to a new study published today by CU Boulder and Harvard University researchers.
Such a strategy could lead to "personalized stay-at-home orders" without shutting down restaurants, bars, retail stores and schools, the authors said.
"Our big picture finding is that, when it comes to public health, it's better to have a less sensitive test with results today than a more sensitive one with results tomorrow," said lead author Daniel Larremore, an assistant professor of computer science at CU Boulder. "Rather than telling everyone to stay home so you can be sure that one person who is sick doesn't spread it, we could give only the contagious people stay-at-home orders so everyone else can go about their lives."
[...] They then used mathematical modeling to forecast the impact of screening with different kinds of tests on three hypothetical scenarios: in 10,000 individuals; in a university-type setting of 20,000 people; and in a city of 8.4 million.
[...] When it came to curbing spread, they found that frequency and turnaround time are much more important than test sensitivity.
For instance, in one scenario in a large city, widespread twice-weekly testing with a rapid but less sensitive test reduced the degree of infectiousness, or R0 ("R naught"), of the virus by 80%. But twice-weekly testing with a more sensitive PCR (polymerase chain reaction) test, which takes up to 48 hours to return results, reduced infectiousness by only 58%. When the amount of testing was the same, the rapid test always reduced infectiousness better than the slower, more sensitive PCR test.
That's because about two-thirds of infected people have no symptoms and as they await their results, they continue to spread the virus.
"This paper is one of the first to show we should worry less about test sensitivity and, when it comes to public health, prioritize frequency and turnaround," said senior co-author Roy Parker, director of the BioFrontiers Institute and a Howard Hughes Medical Institute investigator.
Journal Reference:
Daniel B. Larremore, Bryan Wilder, Evan Lester, [et al]. Test sensitivity is secondary to frequency and turnaround time for COVID-19 screening. Science Advances, Nov. 20, 2020; DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abd5393
(Score: 2) by legont on Sunday November 22 2020, @02:30PM (5 children)
Similar to driving, "walking in public is not a right, but a privilege". This simple change will solve all the issues, while straightening fascists system we already have.
Note that "showing your face in public privilege" is already implemented.
"Wealth is the relentless enemy of understanding" - John Kenneth Galbraith.
(Score: 2) by Rich on Sunday November 22 2020, @03:12PM (4 children)
The Chinese did exactly that. No green light on your phone app, no walking in public. Which I don't think is bad as such under pandemic conditions, but is horrible because of the surveillance infrastructure needed to implement it.
Yet as a result they now throw water park parties again in Wuhan, and, in total, the Chinese economy will effectively have gained a few years on the "old" economy once this is over.
Short of a miracle, we're effectively doomed (as far as "business as usual" goes, at least). Stomping feet or insulting the messenger doesn't help.
It is noteworthy that everyday surveillance in Singapore is even worse than anywhere in China, yet the Singaporeans do nothing about it, and some even welcome what's probably the purest implementation of fascism anywhere in the world right now.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by legont on Sunday November 22 2020, @04:26PM (3 children)
On the other hand Russians did exactly the opposite. They let people do as people pleased and are having mass parties as well. They just treat sick and develop vaccine as fast as they could.
"Wealth is the relentless enemy of understanding" - John Kenneth Galbraith.
(Score: 2) by Rich on Sunday November 22 2020, @08:39PM (1 child)
Well, the Russians are a bit tougher than the rest, and a bit more risk-friendly - as can be seen with their early vaccine deployment. And they drink a whole lot more, that leaves less elderly to die from disease (although I note their life expectancy has increased by almost 10 years in the last two decades), and eases any sufferings for the younger ones...
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday November 23 2020, @05:59AM
Most Russians have disinfectant running through their vascular system, seeping out their pores. Maybe not such a bad thing after all.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday November 23 2020, @10:32PM
I can confirm that at least at one point Russia closed down due to Covid.
I work at a multinational, with a Russian branch. My Russian coworkers explained Covid was the reason that they were cancelling some meetings and said that the entire country was on lock-down.