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Half a million fewer children? The coming COVID baby bust:
The COVID-19 episode will likely lead to a large, lasting baby bust. The pandemic has thrust the country into an economic recession. Economic reasoning and past evidence suggest that this will lead people to have fewer children. The decline in births could be on the order of 300,000 to 500,000 fewer births next year. We base this expectation on lessons drawn from economic studies of fertility behavior, along with data presented here from the Great Recession of 2007-2009 and the 1918 Spanish Flu.
[...] When the public health crisis first took hold, some people playfully speculated that there would be a spike in births in nine months, as people were "stuck home" with their romantic partners. Such speculation is based on persistent myths about birth spikes occurring nine months after blizzards or major electricity blackouts. As it turns out, those stories tend not to hold up to statistical examination (Udry, 1970). But the COVID-19 crisis is amounting to much more than a temporary stay-at-home order. It is leading to tremendous economic loss, uncertainty, and insecurity. That is why birth rates will tumble.
[...] There is ample evidence that birth rates are, in fact, pro-cyclical. This is shown, for instance, in the work by Dettling and Kearney (2014) described above. Their analysis of birth rates in metropolitan areas finds that all else equal, a one percentage-point increase in the unemployment rate is associated with a 1.4 percent decrease in birth rates. Schaller (2016) analyzes the relationship between state-level unemployment rates and birth rates, and finds that a one percentage-point increase in state-year unemployment rates is associated with a 0.9 to 2.2 percent decrease in birth rates. Other evidence shows that women whose husbands lose their jobs at some point during their marriage ultimately have fewer children (Lindo, 2010). This suggests that transitory changes in economic conditions lead to changes in birth rates.
[...] What are the likely implications of the COVID-19 episode for fertility? The monthly unemployment rate jumped from 3.5 percent to 14.7 percent in April and to 13.3 percent in May. Note that the BLS also indicate that technical issues in collecting these data likely mean that the actual unemployment rates in those months were likely 5 and 3 percentage points higher, respectively. That would bring them to about 19.7 and 16.3 percent. Although it is difficult to forecast the 2020 annual unemployment rate, assuming a 7 to 10 percentage-point jump to 10.6 to 13.6 percent seems reasonable. Based on the findings presented above, this economic shock alone implies a 7 to 10 percent drop in births next year. With 3.8 million births occurring in 2019, that would amount to a decline of between 266,000 and 380,000 births in 2021.
On top of the economic impact, there will likely be a further decline in births as a direct result of the public health crisis and the uncertainty and anxiety it creates, and perhaps to some extent, social distancing. Our analysis of the Spanish Flu indicated a 15 percent decline in annual births in a pandemic that was not accompanied by a major recession. And this occurred during a period in which no modern contraception existed to easily regulated fertility.
Combining these two effects, we could see a drop of perhaps 300,000 to 500,000 births in the U.S. Additional reductions in births may be seen if the labor market remains weak beyond 2020. The circumstances in which we now find ourselves are likely to be long-lasting and will lead to a permanent loss of income for many people. We expect that many of these births will not just be delayed – but will never happen. There will be a COVID-19 baby bust. That will be yet another cost of this terrible episode.
Journal References:
1.) Melissa S . Kearney, Phillip B . Levine. Subsidized Contraception, Fertility, and Sexual Behavior, (DOI: rest.91.1.137)
2.) Melissa S. Kearney, Riley Wilson. Male Earnings, Marriageable Men, and Nonmarital Fertility: Evidence from the Fracking Boom, Review of Economics and Statistics (DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00739)
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Friday December 04 2020, @07:21PM (3 children)
And the sun will rise in the east until it doesn't. Human population growth will stop, one way or another, likely before the sun stops rising in the east, but there is nothing beyond conjecture and opinion shaping propaganda to say that it will stop at any given level.
Malthus wasn't wrong, just early.
Україна досі не є частиною Росії Слава Україні🌻 https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/24/7408365/
(Score: 1) by khallow on Saturday December 05 2020, @01:52AM (2 children)
Notice that you're blowing off evidence you presented yourself in this very thread that was to the contrary.
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Saturday December 05 2020, @01:37PM (1 child)
That conjecture that you call evidence is in conflict with the conjecture you have presented... neither contain a shred of evidence about the future.
Of course I believe that "my" conjecture is the more likely to end up correlating with the future - from my perspective it has the best correlation with and extrapolation of patterns of behavior I have seen in the past. However, the variability / noise / unpredictability of those patterns is overwhelming. Honest statisticians call it the flaw of averages.
Insurance companies were certain they understood the risks presented by Hurricanes, then Andrew hit. Water management types have been drawing "500 year flood" lines on maps for a century, they have been redrawing those lines every few years over the past several decades. Human population is living on low lying beachfront property in the Caribbean, soaking up the rays and enjoying the lifestyle. There could be another post-Malthusian reprieve, fusion power is one such candidate, it would be foolhardy to bet the future of civilization that it will happen, but old men have the perfect bankruptcy clause: they're going to die before anyone can collect on their bad calls.
Україна досі не є частиною Росії Слава Україні🌻 https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/24/7408365/
(Score: 1) by khallow on Saturday December 05 2020, @03:10PM
That's why we have evidence.
So you claim. That's already been refuted several times.
In other words, just a typical argument from ignorance fallacy. Because our knowledge about a few cherry picked examples aren't as complete as we'd like, that means you're right. Where's the long tail to short term population predictions?
And we don't need post-Malthusian reprieves with negative population growth.