SoylentNews

Microsoft Prediction Lab

posted by n1 on Tuesday September 30 2014, @08:12PM   
from the because-they-always-get-it-wrong dept.

AnonTechie writes:

Would SN Members like to predict the outcome of upcoming events?

In the Microsoft Prediction Lab you can make predictions about upcoming events and view the combined predictions of the crowd. The Microsoft Prediction Lab team is excited to push the boundaries of forecasting technology, including how to ask questions (data collection), how to keep billions of related likelihoods consistent (data analytics), and how to convey complex quantitative information usefully (data visualization).

• I predict it won't work. (Score: 4, Interesting) by mcgrew on Tuesday September 30 2014, @09:02PM

  by mcgrew (701) <publish@mcgrewbooks.com> on Tuesday September 30 2014, @09:02PM (#100122) Homepage Journal

  The Microsoft Prediction Lab team is excited to push the boundaries of forecasting technology, including how to ask questions (data collection), how to keep billions of related likelihoods consistent (data analytics), and how to convey complex quantitative information usefully (data visualization).

  Granted, but what the quoted text translates to is they're doing surveys. It's exactly what my shop was doing in the 1990s. We had psychologists, sociologists, statisticians, etc. It was strange stuffing envelopes with a room full of PhDs. My job was to write the database program.

  They had no clue how badly it would turn out. Out of a mailing of 100,000 they had 30,000 returns, an exceptionally higher number than normal.

  98% were overwhelmingly negative, often violently so. That survey was buried FAST.

  --
  Carbon, The only element in the known universe to ever gain sentience

  Starting Score:	1		point
  Moderation		+2
  Interesting=1, Underrated=1, Total=2
  Extra 'Interesting' Modifier		0
  Karma-Bonus Modifier		+1
  Total Score:		4