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Global heating pushes tropical regions towards limits of human livability:
Humans’ ability to regulate their body heat is dependent upon the temperature and humidity of the surrounding air. We have a core body temperature that stays relatively stable at 37C (98.6F), while our skin is cooler to allow heat to flow away from the inner body. But should the wet-bulb temperature – a measure of air temperature and humidity – pass 35C, high skin temperature means the body is unable to cool itself, with potentially deadly consequences.
“If it is too humid our bodies can’t cool off by evaporating sweat – this is why humidity is important when we consider livability in a hot place,” said Yi Zhang, a Princeton University researcher who led the new study, published in Nature Geoscience. “High body core temperatures are dangerous or even lethal.”
The research team looked at various historical data and simulations to determine how wet-bulb temperature extremes will change as the planet continues to heat up, discovering that these extremes in the tropics increase at around the same rate as the tropical mean temperature.
[...] Dangerous conditions in the tropics will unfold even before the 1.5C threshold, however, with the paper warning that 1C of extreme wet-bulb temperature increase “could have adverse health impact equivalent to that of several degrees of temperature increase”. The world has already warmed by around 1.1C on average due to human activity and although governments vowed in the Paris climate agreement to hold temperatures to 1.5C, scientists have warned this limit could be breached within a decade.
This has potentially dire implications for a huge swathe of humanity. Around 40% of the world’s population currently lives in tropical countries, with this proportion set to expand to half of the global population by 2050 due to the large proportion of young people in region. The Princeton research was centered on latitudes found between 20 degrees north, a line that cuts through Mexico, Libya and India, to 20 degrees south, which goes through Brazil, Madagascar and the northern reaches of Australia.
Journal Reference:
Yi Zhang, Isaac Held, Stephan Fueglistaler. Projections of tropical heat stress constrained by atmospheric dynamics, Nature Geoscience (DOI: 10.1038/s41561-021-00695-3)
(Score: 2, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday March 14 2021, @02:34AM (47 children)
The South ain't no tropic. I give you that the humidity is horrendous, but it don't get that hot down there.
Try some places like Dubai and others in Persian Gulf region - temp hits 120 with swamp humidity and zero wind.
(Score: 1, Insightful) by The Mighty Buzzard on Sunday March 14 2021, @03:06AM (46 children)
Tennessee hits and stays around 35C with enough humidity that sweating is useless pretty much every single summer. Which is the temperature and humidity level that was specifically mentioned. And yet folks living here have managed not to all die every summer for thousands of years.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday March 14 2021, @03:27AM (26 children)
35C is not 50C (120F).
Nevertheless. During the midday In swampy hot summer, you stick a few coins into the vending machine, and out pops a ice-cold glass bottle of coke, not the aluminum can, or even worse, plastic bottle.
Coke just tastes better in the South.
Memory from a bygone era, I suppose.
(Score: 1) by The Mighty Buzzard on Sunday March 14 2021, @03:52AM (25 children)
No, 35C (mid-90s F) is what was specifically mentioned as the super scary wet bulb temperature in TFA though. So pretty damned relevant.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 1, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday March 14 2021, @04:23AM (16 children)
Yes, but the 35C you mentioned for Tennessee isn't 35C wet-bulb. "wet-bulb temperature, which is so-called because it is measured by a thermometer that has its bulb wrapped in a wet cloth, " Your 35C would be standard.
(Score: 1) by The Mighty Buzzard on Sunday March 14 2021, @04:40AM (15 children)
No, it would not. You've obviously never stepped foot in TN during the summer or you'd know we're within spitting distance of wet-bulb pretty much year round. 50C in a sealed building with no AC in Austin is a lot more bearable. You can work all day in it so long as you stay hydrated. You can't mow the lawn in 35C at >80% humidity without hitting yourself with the water hose every few passes though; sweat doesn't work because it doesn't evaporate but cool water over the head does.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday March 14 2021, @04:51AM (10 children)
Pretty sure 80% humidity isn't the same as wrapping a wet cloth around the thermometer.
Isn't that the point of the article? Places getting too hot and humid for people to do anything? Particularly places that don't have access to a plumbing system filled with cool water?
By the way, how many heatstroke deaths does Tennessee have every summer?
(Score: 2, Informative) by hemocyanin on Sunday March 14 2021, @05:17AM (2 children)
Did they use a Temperature-Humidity-Index in the paper? That would make comparison to places people are familiar with easier. Here's a description of one index: https://www.britannica.com/science/temperature-humidity-index [britannica.com]
The formula is apparently (in F): 15 + (0.4 * (DBT+WBT))
DBT=dry bulb temp
WBT=wet bulb temp
Another formula uses just DBT and Relative Humidity: https://www.pericoli.com/EN/news/120/Temperature-Humidity-Index-what-you-need-to-know-about-it.html [pericoli.com]
NOAA provides a calculator for the "Heat Index" using DBT and RH: https://www.weather.gov/arx/heat_index [weather.gov]
And NOAA's chart is here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_index#Table_of_values [wikipedia.org]
It appears that 70% humidity is dangerous from 90-95 F, and extremely dangerous from 96F. I would guess there are parts of the US that hit this range every year. It would also be interesting whether the info used in the paper could be parsed into one of the several Temp-Humidity indexes that already exist, get noted in the weather reports, and with which people are familiar.
(Score: 2) by FatPhil on Sunday March 14 2021, @11:58AM (1 child)
Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people; the smallest discuss themselves
(Score: 1) by The Mighty Buzzard on Sunday March 14 2021, @03:42PM
It's not uncommon for us to have a dewpoint of 25-30C, just for reference.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 1) by The Mighty Buzzard on Sunday March 14 2021, @03:38PM (6 children)
No, 80% != 100%. It is, however, close-e-fucking-nough to make a relevant statement on the topic. The Dubai nonsense was just flat out unrelated, because who's the hottest wasn't anyone's point.
Yes, and my point is that it's as wrong as it's possible to be since hominids have been surviving temps and humidity that bad or worse for longer than homo sapiens have even existed.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday March 14 2021, @04:44PM (4 children)
Try it without your AC and plumbing for a while. And the article is about places where temp+humidity is expected to go above what humans have been dealing with for millennia.
(Score: 1) by The Mighty Buzzard on Monday March 15 2021, @01:03AM (3 children)
And you reckon we won't be able to find adaptations this time, with all the knowledge we've accrued, unlike every other temperature range we've adapted to throughout history? And you wonder why folks like you get called hysterical idiots...
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday March 15 2021, @06:18AM (2 children)
Depends on the temperatures/humidity and available infrastructure. And whether we can adapt isn't the same as saying we will adapt. I mean, it's possible for folks to live on Antarctica but I don't see a large land grab there. Nor in the deep deserts, unless there's a handy river. And either way, the point is that there will have to be adaptions from the current situation.
(Score: 1) by The Mighty Buzzard on Monday March 15 2021, @01:31PM
So? There have had to be adaptations to changing conditions all throughout human history. And we're damned good at it. It's why there are so bloody many of us while it's pretty hard to find a woolly mammoth. The ice ages were a lot more difficult to deal with than a couple degrees worth of temperature rise. Is your complaint really that you might be horribly inconvenienced by having to do what the species has done its entire existence?
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Monday March 15 2021, @05:17PM
If you can't be bothered, then why should I be bothered? The disease is the cure.
Such a land grab is presently illegal by treaty with that law enforced by the most powerful nations of the world.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday March 14 2021, @06:34PM
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday March 14 2021, @08:59AM (3 children)
Remind me why CA sucks again and how everyone is leaving....for TN, I presume?
(Score: 1) by The Mighty Buzzard on Sunday March 14 2021, @03:39PM
Would you like a list or would insane taxes (we don't even have a state income tax) and no fucking electricity cover it well enough?
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 2) by Freeman on Monday March 15 2021, @03:24PM (1 child)
Maybe not for TN, but for TX, they sure are.
Joshua 1:9 "Be strong and of a good courage; be not afraid, neither be thou dismayed: for the Lord thy God is with thee"
(Score: 2, Interesting) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday March 16 2021, @02:02PM
TN's the top destination for CA refugees, TX is #3 or #4. Last I looked anyway.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 2) by PartTimeZombie on Sunday March 14 2021, @11:21PM (7 children)
This explains it. [wikipedia.org]
So parts of the world are not far away from that and they're getting warmer. If they get more humid too people will not be able to live there.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday March 14 2021, @11:46PM (1 child)
Since you seem actually interested, you should know that wet-bulb temperature is actually a function of more than just humidity. The shade dry-bulb temperature, absolute humidity, wind speed, air pressure, and more have an effect on it. Any of those changing can increase the wet-bulb temperature. Another factor is that increasing dry-bulb temperatures usually increases many of those other factors as well, which results in a larger change in wet-bulb temperature than the change in the dry-bulb temperature.
(Score: 2) by PartTimeZombie on Monday March 15 2021, @12:00AM
Yes, I read the article.
(Score: 1) by The Mighty Buzzard on Monday March 15 2021, @01:08AM (4 children)
People are able to live in space where there isn't even air to breathe. Tell me another one that doesn't take into account the human mind and opposable thumbs.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 2) by PartTimeZombie on Monday March 15 2021, @01:42AM (3 children)
What point do you think you're making? Do you think tens of millions of people are going to live in orbit when their homes become uninhabitable?
(Score: 1) by The Mighty Buzzard on Monday March 15 2021, @03:59AM (2 children)
No, I'm saying if we can live where there isn't even any air to be hot, we can live in hot air. Anything said to the contrary is bullshit with an ulterior motive.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Monday March 15 2021, @08:10AM (1 child)
At what cost? Just because it's possible doesn't mean it's easy or simple, or that anyone will pay for it. I mean, it's possible to dig a tunnel from New York City to San Fransisco, but no-one's busy digging one.
(Score: 1) by The Mighty Buzzard on Monday March 15 2021, @01:33PM
So what? If it's not worth doing then we won't do it. If it is worth doing, we'll do it. How is that different than anything else?
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 2) by krishnoid on Sunday March 14 2021, @05:12AM (18 children)
Which is fine if you want to install air conditioning [tn.gov] in the rainforest or wherever.
(Score: 1) by The Mighty Buzzard on Sunday March 14 2021, @03:44PM (17 children)
Unnecessary. If you live in a rainforest you've long since adapted through either biology or guile to nasty heat and humidity.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 2) by krishnoid on Sunday March 14 2021, @07:51PM (4 children)
Adapted, maybe up until about 1920. But you definitely can't evolve within a hundred years [climate-lab-book.ac.uk] to temperature changes when you're a k-selected species [montana.edu] with a reproductive lifespan within a similar order of magnitude.
Put differently, what fraction of tropical climates' current population can live in something that may start becoming a desert?
(Score: 1, Interesting) by The Mighty Buzzard on Monday March 15 2021, @01:10AM (3 children)
Ask the people who live in the current deserts. Pro-tip: your body will adapt to the current climate on a week to week basis as well as a generational one.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday March 15 2021, @05:27AM (2 children)
Got any specific locations in mind? Probably should move away from deserts, though. Their wet-bulb temperature is much lower than what they are talking about here.
(Score: 2, Informative) by The Mighty Buzzard on Monday March 15 2021, @01:35PM (1 child)
You got confused. The lower the humidity, the better your sweat works. The better your sweat works, the higher the temperature can be without you dying. Assuming you stay hydrated.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 16 2021, @08:41AM
Yes, which is why they have lower wet-bulb temperatures than most people realize despite their often high dry-bulb temperatures.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by PartTimeZombie on Sunday March 14 2021, @11:23PM (11 children)
Only to a point. [wikipedia.org]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday March 14 2021, @11:48PM
You can't actually go from wet-bulb to heat index like that. They aren't measuring the same thing, so it is possible for the same wet-bulb to match a range of heat index measures and vice versa.
(Score: 1) by The Mighty Buzzard on Monday March 15 2021, @01:15AM (9 children)
This is true, if they turn their brains off entirely and have zero access to anyone who hasn't. We're not minnows who can only live in one part of a specific stream, we are the best species there has ever been at surviving unpleasant environments. Because we're really fucking crafty.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 2) by PartTimeZombie on Monday March 15 2021, @01:39AM (8 children)
That makes no sense
(Score: 1) by The Mighty Buzzard on Monday March 15 2021, @04:05AM
No, it makes perfect sense. You're just denying it for religious reasons. You can tell because if they were scientific reasons, arguments shooting your position completely to shit would change your opinion.
Human beings are quite adaptable biologically but we're astoundingly adaptable technologically. We can live in Antarctica, under water, out in space, in deadly hot deserts, and yes, even in hot, muggy bullshit. Because we figure out how to and we do it.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday March 15 2021, @05:32AM (6 children)
He is obviously talking about people using technological means like AC to stay ahead and you are talking about the more poverty-stricken masses that won't have such options to create artificial climates.
(Score: 1) by The Mighty Buzzard on Monday March 15 2021, @01:40PM (5 children)
Actually, I was talking about any number of ways to stay cool. Going swimming or hanging in a basement during the heat of the day doesn't exactly take tons of money or cutting edge technology. If you can't think of that simple of a thing I don't think your genes are going to stay in the pool though.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 2) by PartTimeZombie on Monday March 15 2021, @07:54PM (4 children)
So a billion subsistence farmers in Africa and Asia are just going to be able to go for a dip to cool off while their crops die are they?
Or maybe chill out in the basement which they don't have?
You live in a fantasy world.
(Score: 1) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday March 16 2021, @02:08PM (3 children)
And you're being gradeschool foolish. Basements don't require concrete and rebar, just something to dig with and something to produce shade above. And crops don't require work in the hottest part of the day; they don't much care when you do the work aside from at planting and harvest times. Make some more excuses that're easily solved so I can show you how much of partisan zombie they make you sound like.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 16 2021, @07:19PM (2 children)
You are truly an astounding level of stupid, and in fact I believe you may be one of the first members of the Cult of Science! "We can do anything! Because SCIENCE!!"
Humorously enough you are also the narrow minded libertarian type that would refuse the economic and labor support to help these areas adapt to changing climate. Wait, that isn't actually funny, but your hypocrisy merits a sardonic grin.
(Score: 2) by PartTimeZombie on Tuesday March 16 2021, @07:58PM
It is fairly stupid, but mostly because of the provincial ignorance that thinks that because we live like this everybody else can too.
(Score: 1) by The Mighty Buzzard on Friday March 19 2021, @12:13AM
Hysterical fool. We can't do anything but we are damned well able to figure out or remember really simple shit that people have already had figured out for thousands of years.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.