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Alan Boyle writes that over the years, Elon Musk's showmanship, straight-ahead smarts and far-out ideas have earned him a following that spans the geek spectrum — to the point that some observers see glimmers of the aura that once surrounded Apple's Steve Jobs. "To me, it feels like he's the most obvious inheritor of Steve Jobs' mantle," says Ashlee Vance who's writing a biography of Musk that at one time had the working title "The Iron Man." "Obviously, Steve Jobs' products changed the world ... [But] if Elon's right about all these things that he's after, his products should ultimately be more meaningful than what Jobs came up with. He's the guy doing the most concrete stuff about global warming."
So what is Musk's vision? What motivates Musk at the deepest level? "It's his Mars thing," says Vance. Inspired in part by the novels of Isaac Asimov and Robert Heinlein, Musk has come around to the view that humanity's long-term future depends on extending its reach beyond Earth, starting with colonies on Mars. Other notables like physicist Stephen Hawking have laid out similar scenarios — but Musk is actually doing something to turn those interplanetary dreams into a reality. Vance thinks that Musk is on the verge of breaking out from geek guru status to a level of mass-market recognition that's truly on a par with the late Steve Jobs. Additions to the Tesla automotive line, plus the multibillion-dollar promise of Tesla's battery-producing "gigafactory" in Nevada, could push Musk over the edge. "Tesla, as a brand, really does seem to have captured the public's imagination. ... All of a sudden he's got a hip product that looks great, and it's creating jobs. The next level feels like it's got to be that third-generation, blockbuster mainstream product. The story is not done."
(Score: 2) by takyon on Tuesday October 14 2014, @04:48AM
They'll sell you the battery. [wikipedia.org]
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(Score: 1) by tftp on Tuesday October 14 2014, @06:04AM
That's their current plan. However some new developments [soylentnews.org] may make that battery factory obsolete before it is even completed. Truth be told, IMO, Li-Ion batteries are a terrible waste in cars, and a poor fit.
In any case, today a battery pack for a Tesla costs about $40K. If they reduce the price by 30%, as they expect, that would be $28K. Add the cost of the chassis, and you end up with a number that is still much higher (50-100%) than a brand new gas car costs today. This will certainly help with savings over the lifetime of the car; but it will not help with the fact that most people are poor and simply cannot afford those savings a decade and a 100,000 miles later.
(Score: 1) by takyon on Tuesday October 14 2014, @06:25AM
If you think E-Cat will replace batteries, I have an E-Cat to sell you.
I raise you an aneutronic fusion [lawrencevilleplasmaphysics.com].
[SIG] 10/28/2017: Soylent Upgrade v14 [soylentnews.org]
(Score: 1) by tftp on Tuesday October 14 2014, @06:43AM
Unfortunately, your statement is equivalent to saying "Nothing will ever replace Li-Ion batteries."
I don't know if e-cat is real or not, but a small alumina tube with a pinch of Nickel powder and a few trivial heaters cannot possibly cost that much. If it is real, it will be sold, used, and thus proven. Or not proven. Eventually something *will* come up. If not, we are pretty much doomed, as none of Martian or Lunar robots can operate on Li-Ion batteries, simply due to their limited thermal range.
Building an EV out of Li-Ion batteries today is nearly equivalent to installing a rocket engine into a common car. It can be done, and the car will be mighty fast, but it is pointless and prohibitively expensive. Note that Tesla S weighs close to 2.1 tons, thanks to the weight of the battery pack. A common Prius weighs something like 1.3 tons. Those 0.8 tons will be following you everywhere. It does not make any sense to do such a thing. As I see it, an EV needs a far better source of energy than a bunch of Li-Ion batteries. We do not fly from London to New York on a bunch of toy balloons, don't we? Why then it is considered proper to drive a car that is powered by a similar collection of toy batteries?
(Score: 2) by tibman on Tuesday October 14 2014, @01:56PM
Until you can come up with a battery that can store more and weight less, EV's will continue to use li. Waiting until there is a perfectly technology is the wrong answer. Use the best available and push it to become something better. Also here is a NASA article talking about their use of lithium batteries on three different mars rovers: http://mars.jpl.nasa.gov/mer/technology/bb_power.html [nasa.gov]
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(Score: 1) by tftp on Tuesday October 14 2014, @07:27PM
There weren't too many horse-powered or even steam-powered "heavier than air" airplanes. The reason is that sometimes quantity changes into quality. It required a sufficiently light and powerful engine to lift an airplane into the sky. A steam machine, or ten, wouldn't help you there. This world is very much nonlinear.
That's what we are currently seeing with EVs. The battery technology is just barely started to be usable (usable! not "appealing" or "effective"!) in cars. Those cars cost an arm and a leg, and they have a special care and feeding routine, and they give you only $2K of savings per year (according to another comment [soylentnews.org].) Note also that the formula does not take into account the lost profit from an investment that hasn't happened (lump sum vs. pay as you go.) If instead of a $25K car you buy a $45K car - which seems to be the cheapest Tesla - you'll need 10 years to realize the savings. By that time many cars require serious service; in a Tesla the battery will most likely require a replacement, which moves the goalposts further. A more expensive Tesla, which can cost $70K or $130K, will not ever become effective. They can be bought for the same reason why people buy gold wristwatches - certainly not to merely know time, and not to merely get from point A to point B. But outside of being a status symbol, the current crop of Tesla vehicles is not efficient. This can change as soon as an improved battery comes into play.