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from the lies-damn-lies-and-statistics dept.
Randy Olson, a Computer Science grad student who works with data visualizations, writes about seven of the biggest factors that predict what makes for a long term stable marriage in America. Olson took the results of a study that polled thousands of recently married and divorced Americans and and asked them dozens of questions about their marriage (PDF): How long they were dating, how long they were engaged, etc. After running this data through a multivariate model, the authors were able to calculate the factors that best predicted whether a marriage would end in divorce. "What struck me about this study is that it basically laid out what makes for a stable marriage in the US," writes Olson. Here are some of the biggest factors:
How long you were dating (Couples who dated 1-2 years before their engagement were 20% less likely to end up divorced than couples who dated less than a year before getting engaged. Couples who dated 3 years or more are 39% less likely to get divorced.); How much money you make (The more money you and your partner make, the less likely you are to ultimately file for divorce. Couples who earn $125K per year are 51% less likely to divorce than couples making 0 - 25k); How often you go to church (Couples who never go to church are 2x more likely to divorce than regular churchgoers.); Your attitude toward your partner (Men are 1.5x more likely to end up divorced when they care more about their partner’s looks, and women are 1.6x more likely to end up divorced when they care more about their partner’s wealth.); How many people attended the wedding ("Crazy enough, your wedding ceremony has a huge impact on the long-term stability of your marriage. Perhaps the biggest factor is how many people attend your wedding: Couples who elope are 12.5x more likely to end up divorced than couples who get married at a wedding with 200+ people."); How much you spent on the wedding (The more you spend on your wedding, the more likely you’ll end up divorced.); Whether you had a honeymoon (Couples who had a honeymoon are 41% less likely to divorce than those who had no honeymoon).
Of course correlation is not causation. For example, expensive weddings may simply attract the kind of immature and narcissistic people who are less likely to sustain a successful marriage and such people might end up getting divorced even if they married cheaply. But "the particularly scary part here is that the average cost of a wedding in the U.S. is well over $30,000," says Olson, "which doesn’t bode well for the future of American marriages."
(Score: 2) by Grishnakh on Wednesday October 15 2014, @09:41PM
Maybe you should have explored having an open marriage with her, instead of insisting on changing her. Isn't that something that people (usually men) complain about with their partners, that the partner marries them, hoping to change them? You acknowledge that she wasn't monogamous by nature when you first met, so why would you think she would suddenly become that way after marriage?
(Score: 2) by mendax on Thursday October 16 2014, @07:11PM
I am not a fan of open marriage. I read about how people have them and wonder how anyone can make them work. In any case, I would not want one.
It's really quite a simple choice: Life, Death, or Los Angeles.
(Score: 2) by Grishnakh on Friday October 17 2014, @03:37PM
I am not a fan of open marriage. I read about how people have them and wonder how anyone can make them work.
You sound rather closed-minded. The key is to not be jealous, to be secure with yourself and your relationship, and to trust your partner(s). If you have to maintain control over your partner's sexuality and relationships with other people, that's not a healthy relationship, that's a relationship built on control and fear rather than love and trust.
(Score: 2) by mendax on Friday October 17 2014, @11:41PM
Well, I'm not necessarily closed-minded on the subject. My dislike of open marriages has little to do with my own self-worth or my level of trust with my partner, it's more related to the purpose of sex in a committed relationship. From what I've learned in years of psychotherapy and Twelve Step programs, sex is the least important part a relationship. And to be frank, I am of the opinion that sex outside of a committed relationship is emotionally unhealthy. But if a couple can do it and it works, more power to them.
It's really quite a simple choice: Life, Death, or Los Angeles.
(Score: 2) by Grishnakh on Tuesday October 21 2014, @07:59PM
>From what I've learned in years of psychotherapy and Twelve Step programs, sex is the least important part a relationship.
If it's so unimportant, then why do you care so much if your spouse gets some from another person? It's just plain possessiveness and jealousy, and a sexist desire to guarantee the paternity of offspring (which is why it's OK for men to sleep around, but not for women ("studs vs. sluts")).
(Score: 2) by mendax on Wednesday October 22 2014, @04:04AM
Because she said she would be monogamous, I believed her and expected her to be monogamous, I trusted her to be monogamous, and she betrayed that trust. A betrayal of trust is the greatest destroyer of marriages. It wasn't so much that she screwed some low life, it was that she lied to me. And when I confronted her on the subject she continued to lie about. It was only when I told her that I had evidence that she confessed.
This was several years ago. I must admit that if I were married to her now and I discovered her adultery tomorrow, I would act differently, partially because of what I've learned in Twelve Step programs and psychotherapy, but only if she had gotten into recovery. Under all the layers of delusion and stinking thinking in her mind I knew that she was a good person and wanted to act that way. Furthermore, I learned that I have to take some responsibility for the fact that I knew that she had done this kind of thing before and it was utter narcissism to expect that she could not do it to me.
It's really quite a simple choice: Life, Death, or Los Angeles.
(Score: 2) by Grishnakh on Thursday October 23 2014, @02:09AM
Because she said she would be monogamous, I believed her and expected her to be monogamous, I trusted her to be monogamous, and she betrayed that trust.
Um, no. I'm not talking about cheating, I'm talking about open marriages here. Open marriages are where you've mutually agreed that non-monogamy is OK in some form (different couples do it differently; some have various rules about how close they're allowed to get to other people, whether they need to "get permission" first before dating or sleeping with someone, whether the spouse can "veto" partners). So, the question is, hypothetically, if your spouse asked you if you'd agree to open your marriage (but, as we can infer, has not yet actually dated with or slept with anyone else), why are you dead-set on monogamy? If sex is not such an important part of the relationship, why do care so much if your spouse fucks someone else (but not before telling you/getting permission/etc)? Incidentally, I do agree about sex not being that important; most of the time when I read about people with an open marriage breaking up, it's for some other reason entirely. Also, when you get into a relationship with someone, most likely they fucked other people before they got involved with you. So if that's not a problem, why is it such a problem when they're with you? (Again, if they're sneaking around on you, no that's not cool, I'm talking about open relationships here where your partner has not promised exclusivity to you, however even there they really should keep you apprised of their other relationships and activities.)
And when I confronted her on the subject she continued to lie about. It was only when I told her that I had evidence that she confessed.
You're talking about your personal experience, which involved cheating. That's not an open marriage. Even open marriage and polyamory proponents acknowledge that cheating is really bad, because it breaks trust, and that people in a relationship need to trust each other and have lots of communication (ESPECIALLY in open/poly marriages) to make them work.
Under all the layers of delusion and stinking thinking in her mind I knew that she was a good person and wanted to act that way.
Some people just aren't really wired for monogamy, and because society insists on it so much, for some strange reason (it's not natural at all; just ask the Bonobos), they end up acting out eventually. People like that would really be better off avoiding monogamy and sticking with open relationships. It's a lot healthier, assuming they find an agreeable partner, and can develop proper communication skills to make that relationship work. It's entirely doable, but you have to abandon all the assumptions and preconceptions that come with monogamy.
Furthermore, I learned that I have to take some responsibility for the fact that I knew that she had done this kind of thing before and it was utter narcissism to expect that she could not do it to me.
Yep, that reinforces my contention that she was simply never wired for monogamy. Monogamous society has a saying, "once a cheater always a cheater", but what this really points to is that some (many? the statistics show lots of cheating in our society) people simply aren't cut out for monogamy. And trying to force them into such relationships frequently results in cheating, and failure of the relationship. If they'd just avoid monogamy altogether, and society was more accepting of non-monogamy, this wouldn't be a problem. This doesn't mean everyone should be non-monogamous; there are certainly people who simply don't desire more than one partner, and of course there's people who demand exclusivity from their partner (though I personally think this is bad because it's just jealousy IMO), but if people want to agree to these terms, that's their prerogative. I just object to the idea that this should be considered the only or default choice for a "normal" marriage. It shouldn't be unusual to be non-monogamous.