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SpaceX snags launch contract from Arianespace after Vega rocket fails twice
In a rare victory for international launch competition, SpaceX has snagged a contract to launch an Italian Earth observation satellite from European launch monopoly and political heavyweight Arianespace.
After spending the better part of a decade with its head in the sand as SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket rapidly came to dominate the global launch market, Arianespace has become increasingly reliant on its ability to entice politicians into forcing European Union member states to launch any and all domestic satellites and spacecraft on its Ariane 5, Ariane 6, and Vega rockets. Save for a few halting, lethargic technology development programs that have yet to bear any actionable fruit, the company – heavily subsidized by European governments – has almost completely failed to approach head-on the threat posed by SpaceX by prioritizing the development of rockets that can actually compete with Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy on cost and performance.
[...] A recent development offers the best look yet at what many European space agencies likely suffer through as a consequence of their governments signing away access to an increasingly competitive launch industry – often seemingly in return for Arianespace selecting contractors or (re)locating development hubs or factories in certain countries. Notably, sometime in September 2021, the Italian Space Agency (ASI) confirmed signs that it was moving the launch of its COSMO SkyMed CSG-2 Earth observation satellite from a new Arianespace rocket to SpaceX's Falcon 9.
[...] SkyMed CSG-1 debuted on an Arianespace Soyuz rocket in December 2019, while CSG-2 was originally scheduled to launch sometime in 2021 on one of the first Arianespace Vega-C rockets. However, in July 2019 and November 2020, the Vega rocket Vega-C is based on suffered two launch failures separated by just a single success. Aside from raising major questions about Arianespace's quality assurance, those near-back-to-back failures also delayed Vega's launch manifest by three years. Combined with a plodding launch cadence and jam-packed manifest for Arianespace's other non-Vega rockets, that meant that Italy would have likely had to wait 1-2 years to launch SkyMed CSG-2 on a European rocket.
Previously:
Upper Stage Issue Causes Arianespace Launch Failure, Costing 2 Satellites
Europe Starting to Freak Out About Dominance of SpaceX
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 06 2021, @01:53AM (1 child)
What I find hilarious is that these aren't directly related. SpaceX was already charging around half what their nearest competitor did before they had a reusable rocket, because their rocket was that much cheaper to start with. This means that reuse has even smaller margins to break even for SpaceX than for their competitors, and they still found it profitable* even when they offered a $12M discount for 'used' rockets.
The double edged sword of reuse, and what knowledgeable opponents of the concept cite, is that while it can reduce your costs and will increase your launch cadence, you must increase your launch cadence by an order of magnitude or you will put yourself out of business, and there simply isn't enough demand to support that. Musk bet that demand would increase to match supply, apparently thinking that the incumbent communications companies would see the potential profits and jump at the chance to be first to market. But as his critics predicted, it didn't happen. Of course, being himself, his response to not getting his way was to make it happen anyway, while potentially adding another digit to his net wealth. At least we know who inherited Steve Jobs' reality distortion field.
*This has more to do with SpaceX being good at cost control than reuse being cheaper. I have no doubt that Arianespace could find a way to lose money with reuse.
(Score: 2) by FatPhil on Wednesday October 06 2021, @07:09AM
You're confusing prices charged with actual costs. And if you can do that, I can too, I'll just chose a different customer's price. See my post below.
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