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posted by janrinok on Thursday January 13, @04:32AM   Printer-friendly
from the I-hope-it's-only-the-legs-half dept.

Omicron May Infect Half of Europeans Within Weeks, WHO Says:

More than half of Europe's population could become infected with omicron within weeks at current transmission speeds, a World Health Organization official said.

The fast-spreading variant represents a "west-to-east tsunami sweeping the region," Hans Kluge, WHO regional director for Europe, said in a briefing Tuesday.

He cited the Institute for Metrics and Health Assessment forecast that most Europeans could take it within the next six to eight weeks. The latest Covid surge has resulted in fewer symptomatic cases and lower death rates than in previous waves, fueling optimism that the pandemic may subside.


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  • (Score: 1, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday January 13, @05:42AM (11 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Thursday January 13, @05:42AM (#1212337)

    Herd immunity via exposure to the pathogen is not a thing. Because of mutagenesis, which is fast enough in the immunorobust population, but which is also greatly accelerated in some immunocompromised people, in particular late stage HIV with out medication.

    So if everyone gets immunity from exposure, the # of mutation events will be so high that some of those will create strains with immune evasion against the ancestral strain.

    Herd immunity is only possible from nonpathogenic exposure - vaccines.

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  • (Score: 3, Insightful) by ChrisMaple on Thursday January 13, @06:57AM (6 children)

    by ChrisMaple (6964) on Thursday January 13, @06:57AM (#1212350)

    Pathogenic means disease-causing. If a virus does not cause a disease, in most cases nobody will even know if they've been infected. Therefor it is impossible to know if herd immunity has been achieved.

    You are implying than vaccines and nonpathogenic exposure are the same thing. That is not true.

    • (Score: 4, Informative) by mhajicek on Thursday January 13, @07:11AM

      by mhajicek (51) on Thursday January 13, @07:11AM (#1212352)

      Pathogenic means having to do with a pathogen, which is something capable of causing disease, even if it doesn't always cause disease.

      --
      The spacelike surfaces of time foliations can have a cusp at the surface of discontinuity. - P. Hajicek
    • (Score: 0, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday January 13, @07:44AM (4 children)

      by Anonymous Coward on Thursday January 13, @07:44AM (#1212360)

      Vaccines that aren't live virus are definitionally nonpathogenic.

      Disease which is not diagnosed is still disease. Cancer is a disease even before effects are so obvious that a diagnosis is sought.

      We have ample evidence showing multisystem impact across all survivors. Look at the brain mass data, or the vascular biopsies. Just because these may not always be so severe that the person seeks a diagnosis, doesn't mean they aren't real.

      it is impossible to know if herd immunity has been achieved.

      It's actually trivial to know. Does the sigmoid level off without a driving countermeasure, and then cases go to zero? No? Then it's herd immunity.

      But we will not see that with COVID, just like we will not see an unbiased coinflip get heads 200 times in a row, before the universe winks out. The statistics are simple and clear. We have no herd immunity vs rhinoviruses nor influenza, etc.

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday January 13, @03:08PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Thursday January 13, @03:08PM (#1212420)

        We do not have heard "immunity" from those viruses, but having been exposed to them provides a certain level of protection for variants we will be exposed to later. Usually, a person will be exposed to these viruses as a child and thus will train his immune system on it to provide protection against the worst effects should they catch it again later (or maybe just be largely immune to it). Suffice it to say that the worst part of the coronavirus is that older people did not have prior exposure to it and they are the most vulnerable population to any sort of health problems that can be exacerbated by a viral infection. The coronavirus is endemic now and just about everyone will have some level of protection from having caught it.

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday January 13, @05:16PM (2 children)

        by Anonymous Coward on Thursday January 13, @05:16PM (#1212442)

        Vaccines that aren't live virus are definitionally nonpathogenic.

        Wrong, if the immune system didn't recognize the antigen there would be no antibody production. "Early Covid symptoms are no different to minor side effects from vaccines". [dailymail.co.uk]

        Disease which is not diagnosed is still disease.

        Correct.

        The statistics are simple and clear. We have no herd immunity vs rhinoviruses nor influenza, etc.

        Yes we do, in the form of cross immunity. Get it? [cnbc.com]

        • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday January 14, @12:23AM (1 child)

          by Anonymous Coward on Friday January 14, @12:23AM (#1212551)

          if the immune system didn't recognize the antigen there would be no antibody production

          I think you don't understand what pathogenic means.

          Unless you mean that some people have side effects from vaccination, and you're calling that a disease? But that's garbage - a bruise isn't a disease, either. No, no. You simply don't understand. Please revisit basic concepts and definitions before trying to sit at the adult table.

          We have no herd immunity vs rhinoviruses nor influenza, etc.

          Yes we do, in the form of cross immunity.

          ...No, we don't. We definitely, 100%, do not have herd immunity vs rhinoviruses or influenza. If we did, they wouldn't be endemic.

          Cross immunity is another thing altogether and bringing it in here is like bringing Valencias into a conversation about the best apple.

          Get it?

          I really do, but I really don't think you do!

          • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday January 14, @01:23AM

            by Anonymous Coward on Friday January 14, @01:23AM (#1212562)

            I think you don't understand what pathogenic means.

            I do. You don't understand that vaccine side effects are (usually) mild disease from the introduction of an immunogen derived from a pathogen, this is what generates the immune response and protects you from more serious disease. It's how inoculations work. [doctorsreview.com] If an antigen were non-pathogenic, there could be no immune response.

            We definitely, 100%, do not have herd immunity vs rhinoviruses or influenza. If we did, they wouldn't be endemic.

            Why do you think immunity prevents infection, symptoms or transmission? It simply means the immune system can mount an effective immune response.

            Cross immunity is another thing altogether

            The key word is "immunity", there may be a clue there. Previous infection and vaccination are both forms of active immunity. Was the vaccine designed for Omicron or do these antibodies infer cross immunity comparable with infection from a previous variant?

            Get it?

            I really do, but I really don't think you do!

            Pffft!

  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday January 13, @05:01PM (2 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Thursday January 13, @05:01PM (#1212438)

    Herd immunity via exposure to the pathogen is not a thing. Because of mutagenesis

    Wrong, herd immunity is achieved via interaction with cross-immunity. [nih.gov]

    Cross-reactive T-cells have been demonstrated in patients who have been previously exposed to endemic coronaviruses. The interplay of cross-immunity and herd immunity is apparent in the COVID-19 scenario in India from the presence of a large number of asymptomatic or mild cases, a low infection-fatality ratio and a generally flat curve of percentage positivity of cases with respect to total testing

    Herd immunity is only possible from nonpathogenic exposure - vaccines.

    How's that working for you? Ohh, wait the vaccine was developed against the original lab-escape variant. Guess that's cross-immunity too so your claim that herd immunity via exposure (to the pathogen or the vaccine) is not a thing is complete and utter bullshit!

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday January 14, @12:19AM (1 child)

      by Anonymous Coward on Friday January 14, @12:19AM (#1212549)

      That study doesn't say what you are implying it says. If India had achieved herd immunity in Dec 2020 then they wouldn't have had waves in 2021. Which they had. That study indicates herd immunity against the ancestral strain which is NOT what we mean by herd immunity in a conversation about Omicron or other variants.

      Guess that's cross-immunity too so your claim that herd immunity via exposure (to the pathogen or the vaccine) is not a thing is complete and utter bullshit!

      Can we get a "logic fail" mod please? Did I say cross-immunity was impossible? No, I said herd immunity for n-CoV-19 is impossible because of the rate of mutagenesis.

      Maybe you've missed the part where immunocompetent people have had second and third cases of COVID-19? Maybe you've missed the part where the mutation rate per host is high enough, and the # of humans in the world is high enough, that the derease in the exponent from exposure is overwhelmed by the increase in the exponent from mutated advantages?

      It's not fucking hard math.

      And you prove that you're a troll by equivocating exposure to vaccine and to virus. We have lots of evidence showing that vaccine immune response is stronger than post-infectious. First page of google scholar results.

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday January 14, @01:41AM

        by Anonymous Coward on Friday January 14, @01:41AM (#1212566)

        Again, you fail to understand basic words. [medicalxpress.com]

        And you prove that you're a troll by equivocating exposure to vaccine and to virus. We have lots of evidence showing that vaccine immune response is stronger than post-infectious.

        Vaccine induced neutralizing antibodies will not stop you catching Omicron. If you're claiming they do, you are spreading misinformation... again!

  • (Score: 2) by legont on Friday January 14, @12:24AM

    by legont (4179) on Friday January 14, @12:24AM (#1212552)

    This one claims COVID vaccines promote mutations

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-021-01041-4 [nature.com]

    For the record, yes, I do agree with it as anything that does not kill you makes you stronger. Vaccine has to be close to 100% effective to work or it is worse than natural infection. That's why most vaccines are 100% and no AIDS one was ever approved.

    This is, off course, for the population. As an individual I do benefit from covid vaccine and had three of them already.

    --
    "Wealth is the relentless enemy of understanding" - John Kenneth Galbraith.