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Journal by Runaway1956
The Ukraine crisis explained, in quite good detail, Sept 2015. 45 minute presentation, with ~1/2 hour of questions and answers following. If you don't want to click on it, fine. Regardless which side of the issue you sympathize or empathize with, you can see how the situation has developed, and how.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4
https://www.mearsheimer.com
Yeah, it's 6 1/2 years old, but nothing of consequence has changed since Professor Mearsheimer's presentation.
Why is Ukraine the West's Fault?
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The Fine Print: The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. We are not responsible for them in any way.
You're dead, Jim.
-- McCoy, "Amok Time", stardate 3372.7
(Score: 2, Interesting) by khallow on Tuesday February 01 2022, @12:37AM (65 children)
Notice that Mearsheimer doesn't refute anything he downplays. Russia was indeed aggressive. We still have to worry about a greater Russian empire. We still have that sordid history of failure of appeasement even if he terms responses to resist Russian aggression as "doubling down". We still have that the present day Ukraine prefers their sequence of non-Russian backed government to the former Russian one. Or that Ukraine matters to other parties than the Russians.
The problem here is that no matter how much the Ukraine matters to Russia, they've been a very bad neighbor, manipulating governments, invading Ukraine territory, various forms of harassment acknowledged by Mearsheimer, and stoking civil war for the past seven years. Sometimes you just don't get what you want.
(Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Tuesday February 01 2022, @01:04AM (64 children)
Russia is reacting to aggression on its border. Most Americans wouldn't understand.
La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
(Score: 3, Interesting) by khallow on Tuesday February 01 2022, @01:35AM (56 children)
First, most Americans don't need to understand because the US has a good relationship with most of its neighbors (Cuba being the glaring exception - and well, both sides are studiously ignoring each other even there). A key thing missing from the "Russia is reacting to aggression" narrative is that Russia made the bed they're currently sleeping in. The reason every neighbor of Russia wants in on NATO is Russia. Russia's behavior is the aggression on the border that Russia needs to address.
My take is that we're seeing the final days of Russia at its current extent. It doesn't have the economy to support these serious overreactions to "aggression". It's shrinking pretty fast and thus, can only pick on other countries with similar weaknesses.
My take is that Russia needs to clean up its legal and economic act first to have any chance of long term survival. That means rule of law, getting rid of the worst corruption, particularly Putin, and working on making Russia a place where new businesses would want to go. Playing games with "aggression on its borders" won't do a thing to help.
(Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Tuesday February 01 2022, @01:47AM (25 children)
"Your" take is just mass media propaganda. Nobody wants war but the US
La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday February 01 2022, @02:08AM (24 children)
You're missing Russia, of course. Putin needs an enemy in order to stay in power. Tyranny 101.
(Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Tuesday February 01 2022, @02:12AM (23 children)
:-) Serious projection there, buddy
La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday February 01 2022, @02:40AM (22 children)
And of course, the usual lack of argument, indicating once again that fusty has surrendered the field.
Sorry, buddy, but Putin's in the hot seat - decaying country with him being the obvious target to blame for the fuckups of his entire tenure. Notice the elaborate narratives mentioned here by Runaway. The Koch brothers got cooties on the "coup" and that's why it happened. That's a classic blame redirection. Putin backed the previous Ukrainian government and its terribleness. He's the one who created the "coup" not some billionaires.
This is a classic tyranny trick - blame someone else for the problems you caused. And as we see here, it works.
(Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Tuesday February 01 2022, @03:00AM (1 child)
:-) id. [soylentnews.org]
Not what the man says [youtu.be]...
You're hilarious! Do you really expect to be taken seriously? And by whom?
La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
(Score: 2, Funny) by khallow on Tuesday February 01 2022, @03:18AM
Sorry, I got your number here. Here's the part you wrote in that post [soylentnews.org] in question where you gave up.
Zero content one liner. Now let's look at a post [soylentnews.org] where you haven't given up.
Sure, there's the trademark fusty "you lie" one liner. But then it's followed by content - reasoning that supports that one liner. We can tell when you've run out of ammo because you just do the one liners.
People who think, buddy.
(Score: 2) by Runaway1956 on Tuesday February 01 2022, @12:44PM (6 children)
Well, you got that part right!!
As Fusty said, you're doing some serious projection there.
Abortion is the number one killed of children in the United States.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday February 01 2022, @02:53PM (5 children)
(Score: 2) by Runaway1956 on Tuesday February 01 2022, @03:11PM (3 children)
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=Biden+Russia&t=vivaldi&atb=v1-1&ia=web [duckduckgo.com]
Abortion is the number one killed of children in the United States.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday February 01 2022, @03:21PM (2 children)
(Score: 2) by Runaway1956 on Tuesday February 01 2022, @03:34PM (1 child)
Abortion is the number one killed of children in the United States.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday February 01 2022, @03:57PM
(Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Wednesday February 02 2022, @01:55AM
That's right, he's just fomenting war in Ukraine to draw them in, you know, like Carter did in Afghanistan
La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
(Score: 4, Funny) by DeathMonkey on Tuesday February 01 2022, @04:56PM (12 children)
So ignoring the blame game, what's the next move here?
The US, as of now, is proposing harsh economic sanctions if Russia annexes any more of Ukraine.
I doubt Putin would start a shooting war over economic sanctions he's smart enough to know that won't end well.
And I also think he is smart enough to know that harsh economic sanctions could be dangerous for him given Russia's shaky economy.
So the question is: Is Ukraine worth more than the harm caused by sanctions?
At this point I think the answer is NO. Putin's testing the waters and I think the results are coming back negative for a 2014 rerun. We're onto his game now....
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday February 01 2022, @07:08PM (11 children)
Plot twist. [twitter.com] Oceana was never at war with Eurasia. Oceana was always at war with Eastasia.
It's as if US elites are only now figuring out why Putin's Russia is so brazen.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday February 02 2022, @12:10AM (10 children)
Because Putin has been talking with his buddy, Soros and sees Chinese Ukraine as the big threat? Putin likes losing conflicts with China by squandering resources elsewhere?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday February 02 2022, @12:38AM (9 children)
So close khallow. Since you mentioned resources, pay attention! [forbes.com]
(Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday February 02 2022, @12:48AM (8 children)
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday February 02 2022, @01:34AM (7 children)
https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2022/02/01/ambitious-china-gears-up-to-flex-power-in-the-conflict-riven-horn-of-africa/ [moderndiplomacy.eu]
(Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday February 02 2022, @02:03AM (6 children)
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday February 02 2022, @02:50AM (5 children)
I already quoted the relevant part. If you want weapons to fight a war you'll need energy, resources, a manufacturing base and... access to shipping lanes. If our "elites" had concentrated on that instead of inside trading, the CCP wouldn't be openly mocking them: https://twitter.com/chenweihua/status/1488195123196346369 [twitter.com]
(Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday February 02 2022, @03:42AM (4 children)
You're doing it wrong. Why are you relying on "elites" rather than the people who have a great record at securing and extracting resources? My take is that China will learn that in time. But meanwhile, they're helping Africa get out of poverty so I'm cool with their expenditures and infrastructure building.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday February 02 2022, @02:26PM (3 children)
I am not. They don't understand wealth creation and have screwed themselves over by exporting manufacturing. Without a working class producing wealth, there will be nothing left for them to steal and dwindling purchasing power for them to politically bargain with.
The CCP is not a charity. [nationalinterest.org]
(Score: 2, Insightful) by khallow on Wednesday February 02 2022, @02:41PM (2 children)
Implicitly, you were (assuming you're the same AC). And I see you still complain about those "elites" despite your alleged lack of reliance.
That's blatantly false. The parties making the decisions in the exporting of manufacturing did really well. And I see the usual assumption that manufacture is the only way to produce wealth. A lot of the US service industry is actually high profit margin manufacture. My take is that the reason the US economy grew is due to wealth creation from the high tech industry.
It doesn't matter what the CCP thinks it is. Once that money hits Africa, it's going to do interesting things - as long as it doesn't immediately return to China or drop into some developed world bank (classic failure modes).
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday February 02 2022, @07:50PM (1 child)
We'd all like a "lack of reliance" on $30 Trillion in debt.
Did they? [lowyinstitute.org] Is it because elites succeed by failing up or is surrendering market share at that speed some kind of leftard metric for success? "If you try to fail and succeed, which have you done"?
There's also Mining, Refining [rusi.org] and Agriculture. [europe-cities.com]
(Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday February 03 2022, @01:34AM
You're speaking of two different groups of elites. The ones managing the US debt are very different from the ones exporting manufacture to other countries.
Succeed by failing up, for example, is a real thing not a leftard metric for success. There's also selling out. There's also just moving most of your supply chain to China and elsewhere.
Also, I'm underwhelmed by your links. I'm quite aware of the growing economic strength of China and the economic goofiness in Russia. Neither seems relevant to whatever you're talking about.
My take on this is that we're looking at a lot of 19th century mercantilism in China and Russia, which I think is very attractive to an authoritarian mindset. That might have worked great in the past when technology advances weren't so rapid, the technological differential was much greater, global trade not such a big deal, and businesses didn't rise and fall so much. But 19th century style colonialism doesn't work so well now. It's too easy for regions to shop around for the better deal and businesses to rework their processes to use less oligopolic resources.
Russia's failings in the Ukraine should be quite educational. They managed to capture the easy fruit, the Crimea, which was mostly Russian and limited in extent, easy to defend, and a compelling military target. But their efforts have bogged down since. Donbas didn't fall easily. They aren't getting economic advantage from the mess and now, they're facing economic sanctions. It's a net boat anchor on their economy. I think that will matter more than the games that Putin is playing now in the region.
What I think is missed is that the US's strength is not in the resources that the US government can throw at problems, but in the extremely flexible and quick private sector environment. The movement of manufacture to foreign lands is actually an example of this flexibility. My take is that the US can restore (say by moving back or creating from scratch) that manufacturing again just as quickly should conditions change so that the US is a more advantageous environment over China and elsewhere.
So I don't see it as concerning that the US isn't playing the resource grab game. I think China will get a lot out of it, but so will everyone else, including the US, of course, especially once the benefactors of China's largess move on.
(Score: 3, Touché) by Runaway1956 on Tuesday February 01 2022, @01:59AM (29 children)
Well, yeah, after we dispose of all the leaders of banana republics that we didn't like. The governments that we prop up really like us, no matter what the citizens of those nations think. How many Columbians have been killed in our 'War against Drugs'? Tell us some more nice fairy tales, khallow.
Abortion is the number one killed of children in the United States.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday February 01 2022, @02:09AM (26 children)
You're reaching. None of those clowns were on the US border.
(Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Tuesday February 01 2022, @02:15AM (25 children)
In the same hemisphere is close enough. And you shouldn't confuse total submissiveness for "good relations"
La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday February 01 2022, @02:51AM (24 children)
Of course not. Every two points that aren't exactly opposite each other on the global shares a common hemisphere.
(Score: 2, Informative) by fustakrakich on Tuesday February 01 2022, @03:05AM (21 children)
Your pedantry wins again...
Feel free to educate yourself on the Monroe Doctrine
La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday February 01 2022, @03:20AM (18 children)
Which doesn't designate US neighbors, let us note.
(Score: 2) by Runaway1956 on Tuesday February 01 2022, @12:36PM (17 children)
I feel like you're being intentionally obtuse. The Monroe Doctrine designates the Americas as off limits to everyone except Americans. Or, in the terms you just stated, the Monroe Doctrine says that all Americans are neighbors. In practice, we have jurisdiction all the way from the Arctic Circle to Tierra del Fuego, (and anywhere else we feel like) but Russia can't exercise any power or authority right on their very own borders.
Hypocrisy much?
Abortion is the number one killed of children in the United States.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday February 01 2022, @01:58PM (16 children)
Which is incorrect. It merely stated that the US supported other independent states of the Americas. Many such new states had been created at the time of that declaration.
Again, the goalposts have been moved ridiculously.
If it wasn't for pointless appeals to hypocrisy, I imagine you wouldn't have anything to say on this.
(Score: 2) by Runaway1956 on Tuesday February 01 2022, @02:11PM (15 children)
How many ways can you be wrong? Let me count the ways . . . . errr, on second thought, I can find better things to do.
The Cuban missile crisis, and today's Ukraine crisis are directly comparable. We didn't want the Soviet flexing it's military muscle 90 miles from one of our cities, and Russia doesn't want US/NATO flexing it's military muscle in Ukraine. We would have nuked Cuba, we can hardly wonder that the Russians might threaten similar action in Ukraine. To their credit, the Russians haven't threatened a nuclear holocaust - yet. Why don't we continue to back them into a corner, so we can find out if they will launch nukes?
Abortion is the number one killed of children in the United States.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday February 01 2022, @02:45PM (14 children)
I'd start with the number zero.
Indeed. And the differences are instructive. First, nuclear missiles in Cuba was a huge threat to the US. Not so much the Ukraine to Russia. Second, the Cuban missile crisis was resolved quickly - the decision by the USSR to put nukes in Cuba was made in June, 1962 and the final deescalation happened in November 1962 (end of blockade, removal of bombers/missiles, etc).
Meanwhile, the Ukraine has been at civil war for seven years and counting. Any significant Russian gains happened in 2014, when they took over the Crimea. Presently, it's just making things suck for everyone.
Any such corner is of Russia's own making. And appeasement remains a waste of time. Historical examples show that among other problems, the appeased country routinely continues to view itself as being backed in a corner no matter what advantages they gain from appeasement. That's because the problems causing the attitude are internal not external, and remain in place.
So I see this in two ways: first, Russia is getting what it's earned, and second, you suggest nothing that will improve the situation for Russia, much less for the rest of the world.
(Score: 2) by Runaway1956 on Tuesday February 01 2022, @03:18PM (13 children)
I see. So the deployment of nukes within 500 miles of Moscow is no threat at all to Russia. Got it. We couldn't tolerate nukes 220 miles from Miami but Russia must tolerate nukes less than 500 miles from it's capitol. Once again, no hypocrisy at all, right?
Abortion is the number one killed of children in the United States.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday February 01 2022, @03:23PM (5 children)
What deployment? Seriously, where's the missiles?
(Score: 2) by Runaway1956 on Tuesday February 01 2022, @03:34PM (4 children)
NATO and the Pentagon routinely send me updates regarding the deployment of nuclear weapons. 🙄
Abortion is the number one killed of children in the United States.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday February 01 2022, @03:41PM (3 children)
So in other words, this assertion was pulled out of your well-informed ass? Sorry, but without those updates or equivalent evidence, I'm just going to have to consider your assertion likely wrong. The Biden administration is a hot mess, but moving nukes next to Russia would be an awful lot of disaster seeking - just as much from the US's European allies as from Russia. I wonder why you think the Biden administration would be up for that? They seem pretty risk avoiding actually.
(Score: 2) by Runaway1956 on Tuesday February 01 2022, @04:04PM (2 children)
And, now, you are back to the heart of the problem. In the presentation, some time is spent on the intention of the west to bring Ukraine, and all the rest of Eastern Europe into the NATO umbrella. Yes, yes, yes, a thousand times yes, moving nukes next to Russia is an awful lot of disaster seeking. You win the 'understatement of the day' award!
Abortion is the number one killed of children in the United States.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday February 01 2022, @05:00PM
So why are you concerned that it could be happening?
(Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Tuesday February 01 2022, @06:43PM
:-) Give it up, man... He's obviously not serious
La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday February 01 2022, @09:54PM (6 children)
And American military-industrial-complex companies deployed in Northern Europe to spy on Russia. No threat to Russia there, either. We're just generally a pain in Russia's backside, especially when the military-industrial-complex can make a profit... and share the wealth back with politicos.
(I would've posted this earlier, but I was banned, again. Or still. It's hard to say.)
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday February 01 2022, @11:16PM (4 children)
I would have thought that MIC businesses in northern Europe would have been open season hunting for Russian business espionage - very advantageous to Russia. Anyway, the argument for Russia being threatened is really light. We have either a really stupid, high blowback move of putting nukes on the border with Russia or espionage in generic northern Europe (which the Ukraine technically isn't part of). I don't see either as being a serious threat to Russia, much less something that can be addressed by the aggressive games that Russia is playing now.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday February 02 2022, @03:28AM (3 children)
I'm passably versed in what I was saying — enough to discard details. I dunno, maybe you're trying to dazzle with arcane erudition about the underbelly of perestroika. Give me the -1, and I'll move on.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday February 02 2022, @03:52AM (2 children)
This is a shitshow not some sad aspect of perestroika. I say get rid of the thug and get back on track.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday February 02 2022, @03:58AM (1 child)
I said Northern Europe.
I'm sorry, I won't take your bait again.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday February 02 2022, @06:05AM
And this was a story about the Ukraine - so I thought you were including the Ukraine. Which may still be the case, you haven't actually said one way or another.
To the contrary, I took your bait!
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday February 02 2022, @02:32AM
Well, SN has it's own spy deployed in Northern Europe. He's not much of a threat to Russia, since he spends a lot of his time sampling various beverages all over Europe.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday February 01 2022, @03:21AM (1 child)
Yes but what if he had brought his pedantry here in a truck?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday February 02 2022, @02:33AM
Rollin' coal, babe!
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday February 01 2022, @11:35AM (1 child)
Hemispheres are a state of mind, not a geography.
Take New Zealand, any further east and you'd end up yesterday. And yet it's a "Western" country smack bang in the Southern Ocean.
Hemispheres were only a modern invention by late 15th century popes who said Spain could have one side of the world and Portugal the other. The only thing the great powers agreed on was anything south of an imaginary line belonged to old Europe.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday February 01 2022, @02:46PM
Well, they aren't my state of mind.
(Score: 2) by DeathMonkey on Tuesday February 01 2022, @04:18PM (1 child)
Yeah, worked great in Iran!
Iranian lawmakers chant ‘Death to America’ [timesofisrael.com]
(Score: 2) by Runaway1956 on Tuesday February 01 2022, @04:26PM
Bingo! That is exactly the sort of thing we like to do with banana republics. Or, oil republics, as the case may be.
Abortion is the number one killed of children in the United States.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday February 01 2022, @08:33PM (6 children)
What aggression on their border? Russia has repeatedly invaded neighbouring countries and annexed those countries' territory. This is more of the same. Remember that the whole Ukraine situation started when they threw out a pro-Putin quisling who had been rigging their elections. That's the 'aggression'. That's the 'threat'. Ukrainian independence from Russia. Which is the Ukrainian people's right.
(Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Tuesday February 01 2022, @09:10PM (5 children)
That's just war mongering mass media bullshit lies like for Afghanistan/Iraq. The aggressors are the US/NATO financing/arming/provoking (sending mercenaries) the coup, a failed "color revolution". Ukraine, like Syria, etc. is the victim of a proxy war that only the US really wants
La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
(Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday February 02 2022, @02:07AM (4 children)
It needs to be false first in order for it to be lies. And well, you have a long running, Orwellian habit of labeling truth as lies.
(Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Wednesday February 02 2022, @02:09AM (3 children)
In your bubble it would seem that way
La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
(Score: 2, Funny) by khallow on Wednesday February 02 2022, @02:13AM (2 children)
(Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Wednesday February 02 2022, @02:18AM (1 child)
:-) Sorry to disappoint, but homey don't do that!
La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
(Score: 2, Funny) by khallow on Wednesday February 02 2022, @02:31AM