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posted by martyb on Sunday November 23 2014, @09:22AM   Printer-friendly
from the prefer-to-own-an-automobile dept.

Jerry Hirsch writes in the LA Times that personal transportation is on the cusp of its greatest transformation since the advent of the internal combustion engine. For a century, cars have been symbols of freedom and status but according to Hirsch, passengers of the future may well view vehicles as just another form of public transportation, to be purchased by the trip or in a subscription. Buying sexy, fast cars for garages could evolve into buying seat-miles in appliance-like pods, piloted by robots, parked in public stalls. "There will come a time when driving the car is like riding the horse," says futurist Peter Schwartz. "Some people will still like to do it, but most of us won't." People still will want to own vehicles for various needs, says James Lentz, chief executive of Toyota's North American operations. They might live in a rural area and travel long distances daily. They might have a big family to haul around. They might own a business that requires transporting supplies. "You will still have people who have the passion for driving the cars and feeling the road," says Lentz. "There may be times when they want the cars to drive them, but they won't be buying autonomous-only cars."

One vision of the future is already playing out in Grenoble, France, where residents can rent from a fleet of 70 pod-like Toyota i-Road and Coms electric cars for short city trips. "It is a sharing program like what you see in Portland [Oregon] with bicycles," says Lentz. Drivers can check out and return the cars at various charging points. Through a subscription, they pay the equivalent of $3.75 for 30 minutes. Because the vehicles are so small, it's easy to build out their parking and charging infrastructure. Skeptics should consider the cynicism that greeted the horseless carriage more than a century ago, says Adam Jonas who adds that fully autonomous vehicles will be here far sooner than the market thinks (PDF). Then, Jonas says, skeptics asked: "Why would any rational person want to replace the assuredness of that hot horse body trustily pulling your comfortable carriage with an unreliable, oil-spurting heap of gears, belts and chains?"

 
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  • (Score: 2) by PizzaRollPlinkett on Sunday November 23 2014, @03:01PM

    by PizzaRollPlinkett (4512) on Sunday November 23 2014, @03:01PM (#119115)

    The problem with not having a car is peak demand. Next Wednesday in America, for example. Say I have a medical problem next Wednesday and don't own a car. The fleet of cars will all be rented out. So what do I do? Unless there is one car per person during peak demand, this won't work, and if there is, why not just own a car?

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  • (Score: 2) by urza9814 on Tuesday November 25 2014, @07:16PM

    by urza9814 (3954) on Tuesday November 25 2014, @07:16PM (#119893) Journal

    I'm not really sure that's such a problem. Rented self-driving cars aren't going to be for long distances; if you need to commute between cities you'll get a ride to the airport or train station. And in that case you can just have a bunch of shuttle cars that pick people up from the station together and drop them all off on one run. That'll probably be less congested than the daily rush hour peak. THAT is going to cause your problems -- they'll need a ton of cars at 9am and 5pm that will just sit around idle for all but five hours a week. For something as expensive as a car, and considering how short most rental places usually own cars, that's going to be an issue.