Stories
Slash Boxes
Comments

SoylentNews is people

Journal by khallow
I ran across a recent study ("Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views on controversial scientific issues", published July 2022) that had some interesting results. The study asked subjects to rate their opposition to some scientific claim that is generally held to be true (a "consensus"). They then asked the subjects to evaluate their own knowledge in the area and finally tested the subjects on their actual knowledge of the subject. This resulted in a three value data set of "opposition", "subjective knowledge", and "objective knowledge". The opposition questions are listed in the above study.

For example, one on GM foods:

"Consuming foods with ingredients derived from GM crops is no riskier than consuming foods modified by conventional plant improvement techniques."

The primary conclusion is that for a number of claims that are generally held to be true by consensus, opposition to those results show interesting correlations: opposition correlates negatively with objective knowledge (what the final test indicated that the subject knew about the field), and positively with subjective knowledge (what the subject thought they knew about the field). Those who were most opposed tended to exhibit a large gap between what they knew and what they thought they knew.

Here's the list of subjects and then I'll get to the punch line:

  • GM foods
  • Vaccination
  • Homeopathic medicine
  • Nuclear power
  • Climate change
  • Big bang
  • Evolution

Which one wasn't like the others?

Climate change!

The question was in the same vein as the rest:

Most of the warming of Earth’s average global temperature over the second half of the 20th century has been caused by human activities.

Unlike every other field listed in this research, there was a slight positive correlation between opposition to the claim and objective knowledge of the subject (see figure 2).

What other consensus viewpoints are out there where agreement with the consensus correlations with greater ignorance of the subject? Economics maybe?

 

Reply to: Re:Trees vs khallow

    (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 23 2022, @06:07AM

    by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 23 2022, @06:07AM (#1268082)

    The tell: what makes it evidence, much less compelling evidence? Even if there was no climate change, one could pull these sort of stories out of one's ass.

    The evidence is presented in the linked journal papers that discuss each of the three events that were listed. In short, because you don't want to click through and actually look at the papers, you're denying that there's any evidence. It's plainly obvious that you haven't even looked at any of the three papers that are linked on that webpage, and because you couldn't be bothered to click the links, you're pretending there's no evidence provided. That is incredibly lazy, and your reason to claim that no evidence was provided is asinine and disingenuous. The evidence is literally two clicks away from this comment: one to https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/bulletin-of-the-american-meteorological-society-bams/explaining-extreme-events-from-a-climate-perspective/three-extreme-events-that-were-not-possible-in-a-preindustrial-climate/ [ametsoc.org], the second to one of the three journal papers. You do understand how to identify and click links on a webpage, don't you? The linked articles are BAMS articles, which are intended to be more accessible to people with a general science background than, say, an article in Journal of Climate. BAMS is, of course, still a peer-reviewed journal.

    Because they're simulations not actual observations of reality. Reliance on models instead of reality is a common symptom of the problems we have with climatology.

    This is vague and unscientific. It is not a useful criticism. The models are verified against past climates, and generally do a good job of simulating the past. In this case, the models are simulating climates of the past and present day, which exactly what they've been verified against. This is not the same as the scenario of simulating future climates, which have more uncertainty because the models are being extrapolated into conditions for which there's currently no data to verify them against. But attribution studies involve simulating past and present climates. Models have been verified in these climatic conditions. They do a good job of replicating them.

    Now, you could say that there's a problem with a specific model. There are flaws and biases in each model, sure. But you'd also be wrong to involve that argument, because the researchers were using data from CMIP5. It's a collection of data from many models [llnl.gov], so they didn't just rely on one model. They looked at simulations of preindustrial climates from a large number of models and none came close to replicating the extreme event. Because they used an ensemble of models, you can't say that flaws in a particular model prevented them from reproducing the extreme event.

    Your criticism is unscientific and would be dismissed out of hand if you provided it as a peer reviewer.

    TL;DR: These studies are simulating climates of the recent past. The simulations can be trusted because the models have been verified against those climates. There are many models, so the results aren't because one single model is flawed.

    And I did.

    No, you didn't. You are dismissing these studies out of hand because they're inconvenient for your political views.

Post Comment

Edit Comment You are not logged in. You can log in now using the convenient form below, or Create an Account, or post as Anonymous Coward.

Public Terminal

Anonymous Coward [ Create an Account ]

Use the Preview Button! Check those URLs!


Logged-in users aren't forced to preview their comments. Create an Account!

Allowed HTML
<b|i|p|br|a|ol|ul|li|dl|dt|dd|em|strong|tt|blockquote|div|ecode|quote|sup|sub|abbr|sarc|sarcasm|user|spoiler|del>

URLs
<URL:http://example.com/> will auto-link a URL

Important Stuff

  • Please try to keep posts on topic.
  • Try to reply to other people's comments instead of starting new threads.
  • Read other people's messages before posting your own to avoid simply duplicating what has already been said.
  • Use a clear subject that describes what your message is about.
  • Offtopic, Inflammatory, Inappropriate, Illegal, or Offensive comments might be moderated. (You can read everything, even moderated posts, by adjusting your threshold on the User Preferences Page)
  • If you want replies to your comments sent to you, consider logging in or creating an account.

If you are having a problem with accounts or comment posting, please yell for help.